Peak Oil - the emerging reality Who am I? Chris Skrebowski has spent half his working life in the oil industry and the rest as an oil journalist Free of corporate or political pressure he brings a healthy scepticism to the problem Not pessimistic by nature, not anti-Oil
Chris Skrebowski has spent half his working life in the oil industry and the rest as an oil journalist
Free of corporate or political pressure he brings a healthy scepticism to the problem
Not pessimistic by nature, not anti-Oil
Basic approach to Peak Oil analysis
Don’t guess, assume or hope - let the numbers talk
Observe what companies do, not what they say
In this presentation the opinions expressed are entirely those of Chris Skrebowski in his capacity as an ODAC Trustee and as such do not necessarily reflect the view of the Energy Institute for whom he edits Petroleum Review
Alaskan North Slope ProductionReserves grow -- Production falls
‘Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding.’
The real discovery trend most people expect
Past discovery according to ExxonMobil
Global new field
discovery (7-10bn b/y)
Tar sands and Heavy oil
Biofuels + others
Known oil reserves
in production (90%)
84mn b/d or 30bn b/y
2 to 25 years
Forties monthly production to date
Brent monthly production to date
2006 Study & +4%/yr
Millions of Barrels Per Day
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
Years after Crash Program Initiation
U.S. Crash Program to Cut Imports
2005 Study & +4%/yr
Years After Crash Program Initiation
Worldwide Crash Program Mitigation of Conventional Oil Production Peaking
A Study for DOE NETL
Delay / Rapid growth.
Roughly 35 MM bpd at year 20.
Will this be the
use for SUVs or 4X4s?
Ireland and Sweden
A network of professionals working to reduce oil vulnerability
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
Hydro, nuclear, wind, waves and biomass can all generate power. But at what cost? Little oil is now used for power generation.
Can we make our economies all electric?
Can we make coal-to-liquids economic?
Three sorts of depletion:
Piper monthly production to date
Fulmar monthly production to date
Schiehallion monthly production to date
This is the real new capacity to 2012 century?(Peak in first quarter of 2011)(Ver 2)