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Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave I. Topline Findings Prepared for: Maine Today Media September 2010. Focus Groups  Surveys  Public Opinion Polling 120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine 04101 Telephone: 207-772-4011 • Fax: 207-772-7027 www.criticalinsights.com.

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Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave I

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Maine voter preference study wave i

Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave I

Topline Findings

Prepared for:

Maine Today Media

September 2010

Focus Groups  Surveys  Public Opinion Polling

120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine 04101

Telephone: 207-772-4011 • Fax: 207-772-7027

www.criticalinsights.com


September 2010

Report of Findings


September 2010

Introduction


Summary of method approach

Summary of Method & Approach

  • A random, statewide poll of 603 registered likely voters across Maine was conducted as a baseline polling effort in mid-September.

  • The survey instrument was developed by Critical Insights, in collaboration with Maine Today Media.

  • Interviews were conducted by telephone using a computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system.

  • In order to qualify for inclusion in the survey, respondents had to:

    • Be a registered voter in the State of Maine;

    • Indicate that they voted in the most recent Presidential election in November 2008; and

    • Say they were likely to vote in the upcoming election on November 2nd.

  • Subsequent analysis and compilation of data was also prepared by Critical Insights.

    • Results presented in this report are based on statistically weighted data to reflect the gender, age, and geographic distribution of Maine voters.


Respondent profile

Respondent Profile


Respondent gender and age

Respondent Gender and Age


Family status

Family Status

Do you have any children, age 18 or younger, living with you at home?


Ses level of education income

SES: Level of Education & Income


Political party and ideology

Political Party and Ideology


Cultural ethnic group

Cultural/Ethnic Group


Tenure in maine

Tenure in Maine


September 2010

Research Results


Residents top of mind concerns for maine

Residents’ Top of Mind Concerns for Maine

Please complete the following sentence by mentioning the first thing that comes to mind: “When I think about the future of Maine, the one thing I am most concerned about is…” *

* Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.


Residents views on key issues facing the state of maine

Residents’ Views on Key Issues Facing the State of Maine

Using a scale from 1 to 10, where a 1 means “not at all concerned” and a 10 means “extremely concerned,” please tell me how concerned you are with each of these issues.


Residents household financial situation

Residents’ Household Financial Situation

Thinking now about your personal circumstances, would you say that the economic security of your household is much better, somewhat better, about the same, somewhat worse, or much worse than it was two years ago?

NET WORSE

37%

NET BETTER

12%


Residents household financial situation1

Residents’ Household Financial Situation

* Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “much” or “somewhat better” than two years ago (n=69). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.


Residents household financial situation2

Residents’ Household Financial Situation

* Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “about the same” as two years ago (n=303). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.


Residents household financial situation3

Residents’ Household Financial Situation

* Asked of residents who said the economic security of their household is “much” or “somewhat worse” than two years ago (n=221). Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.


Residents political party preferences

Residents’ Political Party Preferences

Which of the following two political parties – Democrat or Republican – do you feel best serves your interests?


Residents awareness of maine campaigns

Residents’ Awareness of Maine Campaigns

I’m interested in how closely you have been following the campaigns of the various candidates for Governor and Congress in Maine. Using a scale of 0 to 5, where a 0 means you haven’t been following this at all and a 5 means that you’ve been following it very closely, tell me how much attention you’ve been paying to this issue.


Residents perspectives on maine gubernatorial race

Residents' Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race

If the election for the Maine Governor’s seat were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote? Would you vote for…


Residents perspectives on maine gubernatorial race1

Residents' Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Paul LePage? *

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Paul LePage if voting were held tomorrow (n=230).

** Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.


Residents perspectives on maine gubernatorial race2

Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Libby Mitchell? *

** Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Libby Mitchell if voting were held tomorrow (n=148).


Residents perspectives on maine gubernatorial race3

Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Gubernatorial Race

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for Eliot Cutler? *

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Eliot Cutler if voting were held tomorrow (n=65).

** Multiple responses accepted. Top responses shown; remaining responses can be found in the Detailed Tabulations.


Residents leaning in maine gubernatorial race

Residents’ Leaning in Maine Gubernatorial Race

Would you say you are leaning towards a particular candidate? *

* Asked of residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=126 ).

** Percentages should be interpreted with caution due to low number of responses (n=34).


Residents perspectives on maine congressional race cd1

Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD1

Now turning to the Congressional races, if the election were be held tomorrow, would you vote for… *

* Asked of Congressional District 1 residents only (n=316).


Residents perspectives on maine congressional race cd11

Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD1

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for…? *

Chellie Pingree

Dean Scontras

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Chellie Pingree (n=167) or Dean Scontras (n=91) if voting were held tomorrow.


Residents leaning in maine congressional race cd1

Residents’ Leaning in Maine Congressional Race: CD1

Would you say you are leaning towards a particular candidate? *

* Asked of CD1 residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=55).

** Actual numbers are shown rather than percentages due to low number of responses.


Residents perspectives on maine congressional race cd2

Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD2

Now turning to the Congressional races, if the election were be held tomorrow, would you vote for… *

* Asked of Congressional District 2 residents only (n=287).


Residents perspectives on maine congressional race cd21

Residents’ Perspectives on Maine Congressional Race: CD2

Would you say you would definitely or probably be voting for…? *

Michael Michaud

Jason Levesque

* Based on respondents who said they would vote for Michael Michaud (n=138) or Jason Levesque (n=81) if voting were held tomorrow.


Residents leaning in maine congressional race cd2

Residents' Leaning in Maine Congressional Race: CD2

Would you say you are leaning towards a particular candidate? *

* Asked of CD2 residents who said they don’t know how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow (n=56).

** Actual numbers are shown rather than percentages due to low number of responses.


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