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Growth of China’s Auto Industry Vs Oil Supply ， Oil Security Dr. Feng Fei Industry Department of DRC, China

Growth of China’s Auto Industry Vs Oil Supply ， Oil Security Dr. Feng Fei Industry Department of DRC, China. Auto Population Growth （ 1994-2004 ）. 21.8 out of 100 people have their own motor vehicles in 1994, compared 49.8% in 2004 .

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Growth of China’s Auto Industry Vs Oil Supply ， Oil Security Dr. Feng Fei Industry Department of DRC, China

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  1. Growth of China’s Auto Industry Vs Oil Supply，Oil Security Dr. Feng Fei Industry Department of DRC, China

  2. Auto Population Growth （1994-2004） 21.8 out of 100 people have their own motor vehicles in 1994, compared 49.8% in 2004.

  3. Oil Consumption and Its Growth Rate(1993-2003) China’s oil consumption is 4.53% of the world in 1994, compared 7.61% in 2003.

  4. Auto Market Demands Forecast for China 2020

  5. China’s Net Oil Imports and Oil Dependence (1993-2004) In 2004, China’s net oil imports are 117 million tons, or 40.18% dependence.

  6. Oil consumption forecast for 2020 based on 3 estimations (0.1bn tons) estimations 2000 2005 2010 2020 A 2.3 2.9 3.8 6.1 B 2.3 2.9 3.7 5.6 C 2.3 2.7 3.2 4.5 Note: The oil consumptions are forecasted according to the middle option of motor vehicle market predictions. The differences between three estimations are laid in the choice of different policies.

  7. Oil consumed by motor vehicles among the total oil consumptions • In 2000, oil consumed by motor vehicles hit 65.60mn tons, or about 1/3 of China’s consumption. • The estimated oil consumption are 130mn tons and 256mn tons, or 43%, 57％ of China’s total oil consumption of that year. • Note: The motor vehicles above mentioned include motorcycles and farm automobiles.

  8. Trend of oil dependence 2010 2020 Output(0.1bn ton) 1.8 1.8-2.0 Import(0.1bn ton) 1.4 2.5-2.7 Import dependence 44% 56-60% Note: The output will hit a peak of 200million ton in 2015, and as C stands, the prospective output for 2010, 2020 are 320mn tons and 450mn tons respectively.。 Oil dependence (%) 2000 US Japan UK France Germany Italy China 59 99.7 58 98 97 95 31

  9. China’s oil reserves China’s oil geological reserves are 21.759bn tons in 2001, with 6.204bn tons recoverable reserves and remainder of 2.408bn tons. The remainder of recoverable reserves saw a seesaw change with a highest 2.38bn tons in 1988 and lowest 2.23bn tons in 1995, 2.46bn tons in 2000 (a new high point). The reserves in 2001 are 102.1% that of 1988. Generally, China’s oil reserves feature “a good balance between output and consumption with a bit of redundancy” in its adult stage. The future development depends the strategic continuity between the aged oil fields in east of China and those relatively new oilfields in western China and offshore areas.

  10. Comparison concerning per capita oil and richness China world China/world% Output:per capita(ton/person) 0.126 0.561 22.5 Average in unit area(ton/km2) 16.51 25.07 65.9 Remainder of recoverable reserves： per capita 1.98 23.46 8.4 Average in unit area 260.2 1040.3 25.0 Whole reserves: per capita 9.22 76.09 12.1 Average unit area 1209.4 3399.5 35.6

  11. Developments of world oil reserves and global oil markets In 2001, the remainder of recoverable reserves is 142.7bn tons. The average reserves-output ratio is 40.6 worldwide, compared with merely 14 in China. The proven reserves are possibly doubled in the next three decades. The oil market is supposed to be reshuffled.

  12. Fuel Efficiency (km/L) Global Wide weight1360kg, displacement1.8L weight1550kg,2.8L China 10.25 8.1 Europe 11.8 9.8 US 10.6 9.6 Japan 13.0 10.5 China’s fuel economy is 10-15% lower than that of Europe, 5-20% than US, 20-25% than Japan.

  13. Oil Price Comparison(USD/Lit) 1.4 1.22 1.2 1 0.99 1 0.97 0.8 0.6 0.53 0.43 0.4 0.32 0.2 0 China US Canada France Germany Japan UK

  14. Fuel Tax Policies 5.0 Fuel tax 4.0 Fuel price 3.0 gal / USD 2.0 1.0 0.0 Japan France UK Japan Canada US Japan France UK Canada US Germany Gasoline Diesel oil

  15. US CAFÉ Standards Performance

  16. Different Solution for Implementation of Fuel Efficiency Standards

  17. 20000 10,000 ton Oil consumption of target model Base solution 15000 Backup solution Middle solution Ideal solution 10000 5000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Estimated Results for the Fuel Efficiency Standards Advanced-tech solution

  18. The global auto industry is poising for a new round of tech innovationUS: from PNGV to FREE CAREurope: Energy alternative solutions and diesel car trend GTL, BTL, CTL Japan: HYBRID

  19. Market Share of Diesel in the EU 1991 until 2003 (all Manufacturers) 19 17 62 57 United Kingdom 30 46 1991 32 15 53 Germany 2001 Austria France 37 23 Spain Source: Mavel Italy 9 50 44% EU15 40 30 Diesel Share [%] 20 10 0 Year Year

  20. Policy mix Advanced auto technologyFuel efficiency standardsFuel taxImprove the oil quality Marketing impetus R&D financing International cooperation It is suggested to adopt ideal option to implement fuel efficiency standards and can cut consumption by 50mn tons in 2020 。

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