Scr 1284 and its implications
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SCR 1284 and its implications. Colin Rowat, co-ordinator Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq 14 February 2000 Liberation & CLESIP meeting. About CASI. a registered society at the University of Cambridge; narrow humanitarian mandate:

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Scr 1284 and its implications

SCR 1284 and its implications

Colin Rowat, co-ordinator

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

14 February 2000

Liberation & CLESIP meeting

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


About casi

About CASI

  • a registered society at the University of Cambridge;

  • narrow humanitarian mandate:

    • exclusively concerned with the humanitarian consequences of sanctions on Iraq;

  • does not support Saddam Hussein's regime;

  • does not take a position on:

    • military sanctions on Iraq;

    • US/UK bombing of Iraq.

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Overview

Overview

  • Context of SCR 1284

  • SCR 1284

    • Preamble

    • A. Unmovic

    • B. Kuwaiti claims

    • C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF

    • D. Sanctions’ suspension

  • Questions

  • Conclusions

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Context search for consensus

Context: search for consensus?

  • US/UK bombing (12/98):

    • no UN authorisation, dubious motives

    • Unscom not allowed back to Iraq

  • Panel reports commissioned (1/99)

    • Humanitarian report: Annex II of S/1999/356 (30/3/99)

  • French proposal (13/1/99) + UK/Dutch proposal

  • 17/12/99 SCR 1284 passed with 4 abstentions

  • (intellectual context: these sanctions have failed)

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Scr 1284 preamble

SCR 1284: Preamble

  • commitment to, among other things:

    • "establishing in the Middle East a zone free from weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery and the objective of a global ban on chemical weapons”

    • "sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of Kuwait, Iraq and the neighbouring States”

  • expressed since SCR 687 (3/4/91) but largely ignored

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Scr 1284 a unmovic

SCR 1284: A. Unmovic

  • Unmovic = Unscom + disarmament panel recommendations, “as appropriate”

    • greater independence from Member States (“International Civil Servants subject to Article 100” of UN Charter)

  • gives Unmovic up to 135 days to return to Iraq

    • behind schedule (Blix’s appointment)

    • approving “organizational plan” may be easy

    • getting into Iraq probably harder

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Scr 1284 b kuwaiti claims

SCR 1284: B. Kuwaiti claims

  • re-iterates Iraqi responsibility to return Kuwaiti and third country property and nationals

    • Kuwait claims 605 missing persons cases still open

    • Iraq continues to refuse to co-operate with the “Tripartite Commission” established to address these concerns

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Scr 1284 c humanitarian improvement within off

SCR 1284: C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF

  • Caveat: “Regardless of the improvements that might be brought about in the implementation of the current humanitarian programme … the magnitude of the humanitarian needs is such that they cannot be met within the context of the parameters set forth in resolution 986 (1995) and … resolution 1153 (1998).” [Humanitarian Panel Report]

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Selected measures in section c

Selected measures in section C

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Scr 1284 d sanctions suspension

SCR 1284: D. Sanctions’ suspension

  • “intention” to suspend sanctions if Iraq co-operates “in all respects” for 120 days

  • “fundamental objective” of the suspension is “improving the humanitarian situation in Iraq”

  • suspensions “subject to the elaboration of effective financial and other operational measures”

  • two fold uncertainty:

    • co-operate “in all respects” on undefined work plan

    • what sort of suspensions?

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Questions

Questions

  • will Iraq co-operate?

    • France, China and Russia abstained

    • regime more stable than in 1991

    • 1284 offers regime few carrots but asks it to trust US

  • will Iraq be back in the news in 2000?

    • getting Unmovic in risks tension

    • U.S. election year: avoid or play tough?

  • humanitarian consequences?

    • little promise of more money v. lots already in account

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • humanitarian possibilities real but less than Panel’s

    • does the FCO have projections for expected humanitarian outcomes of 1284. If not, unclear that 1284 can be regarded as a serious humanitarian initiative.

  • sanctions’ suspension link to GoI co-operation reaffirms failed 1991 formula

  • failure to take trust building steps (i.e. can GoI trust US?) likely to hinder implementation

Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq


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