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OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE. PAKISTAN: FAILURE OF POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS by Saifur Rahman Sherani. PAKISTAN PROFILE. Area 796,000 Sq. km Population 164 million Population Average Annual Growth Rate 1.7% GNI US$ 144 Billion GNI per Capita US$ 770

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OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE

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Oecd korea policy centre

OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE

PAKISTAN: FAILURE OF POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS

by

Saifur Rahman Sherani


Pakistan profile

PAKISTAN PROFILE

Area796,000 Sq. km

Population164 million

Population Average Annual Growth Rate 1.7%

GNIUS$ 144 Billion

GNI per CapitaUS$ 770

Domestic Debt Rs. 1,787 Billion (US$ 28 billion)

External Debt US$ 45 billion


Poverty profile

POVERTY PROFILE

  • Poverty Line 2,350 calories per adult equivalent (Rs. 944 in 2006 prices)

  • Population Below Poverty Line: 23.9%

  • Regional variations:

  • NWFP (rural) and FATA44%

  • Balochistan 47%

  • Punjab (rural)32%

  • Below $ 1 a day 17%

  • Below S 2 a day74%


Official poverty estimates

OFFICIAL POVERTY ESTIMATES


Poverty reduction strategy 2003

POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY 2003

  • Accelerating economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

  • Improving governance.

  • Investing in human capital.

  • Targeting the poor and the vulnerable.


Social indicators 2007

SOCIAL INDICATORS 2007

  • Adult Literacy Rate50%

  • Combined Gross Enrolment ratio40%

  • Net Primary enrolment ratio68%

  • Life Expectancy64 years

  • Newborn with Low birth weight 37%

  • Children Underweight30%

  • Infant Mortality77

  • Under 5 Mortality99

  • Maternal Mortality per 100,000320


Budgetary expenditure as of gdp 2007

Budgetary Expenditure as % of GDP2007

  • Education1.86%

  • Health0.61%

  • Water supply and Sanitation0.19%

  • Rural Development 0.25%

  • Food Subsidies0.06%

  • Food Support Programme 0.04%

  • Population Planning0.08%


Social assistance zakat disbursed

Social Assistance (Zakat) Disbursed


Increasing poverty

INCREASING POVERTY

  • Food Crisis

  • Energy Crisis – 4,000 MW power shortage

  • Cottage Industry Shutdown

  • Textile units: 70% closed

  • Increasing Unemployment

  • Inflation 23%

  • Food Prices Increased 200%


Government management

Government Management

  • Shortage of wheat - four fold increase in prices

  • (2007 Wheat production 24 million tonnes)

  • Exported 1.5 million tonnes – $208 /tonne

  • Imported 2.5 million tonnes - $400 / tonne

  • Shortage of Power and industrial shut down

  • Load Shedding

  • Shortage of gas and increasing prices of fuel


Rush for wheat flour

Rush for Wheat Flour


Political turmoil and instability

POLITICAL TURMOIL AND INSTABILITY

  • Military Rule October 1999 to 2008

  • Popular Leadership Exiled and imprisoned

  • Emergency PLUS 2007

  • End of Supreme Court March 2007

  • Superior Judiciary in Chains

  • Army Operation in Balochistan 2005 to 2008

  • Army Operation in Islamabad 2007

  • Wave of Suicide Bombings

  • Political Murders – [Former Prime Minister, Governor, Chief Minister]


Marriot hotel islamabad

Marriot Hotel Islamabad


War on terror

War on Terror

  • US Attacks in FATA 2003 – to date

  • Military Operation in NWFP 2007

  • Military Operation in FATA 2004 to date

  • Internal Displacement About 2 million people

  • [Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre – No estimates]


Return to civilian rule

RETURN TO CIVILIAN RULE

  • Elections February 2008

  • Resignation of Military Ruler August 2008

  • Constitutional Amendments not Reversed

  • New Political Government - 55 federal ministers – 20 more to be appointed

  • Foreign Exchange Reserves Depleted

  • Financial Crisis

  • IMF loan obtained


From discontent to despair

FROM DISCONTENT TO DESPAIR

  • Poverty and Destitution Increasing

  • Ever increasing Food Prices

  • Increasing Unemployment

  • Social Assistance as Political Patronage through elected representatives

  • Federal cabinet of 55 ministers

  • Import of 250 bullet proof vehicles


Poor sell kidney for survival

Poor Sell Kidney for Survival


Private social assistance

PRIVATE SOCIAL ASSISTANCE

  • EDHILangar (soup-kitchen) in all major cities

  • Imran Khan 50% Subsidy on baked Bread

  • Private Charities – Food distribution

  • Zakat


Queue for free food

QUEUE FOR FREE FOOD


Government initiatives planned in april 2008 yet to be implemented

Government InitiativesPlanned in April 2008 yet to be Implemented

  • Federal Programme:

  • Benezir Income Support Programme Federal Government - Rs.34 billion

  • Rs. 1,000 per month to 2.83 million poor

  • Provincial Government:

  • Punjab Government Food Stamp Rs. 21.9 billion for 1.8 million Poor


Pakistan s public expenditure on social assistance and war on terror

Pakistan’s Public Expenditure on Social Assistance and War on Terror


Disasters

DISASTERS

  • Drought 1999 - 2003

  • Floods in Balochistan and NWFP 2005 and 2007

  • Earthquake in Northern Pakistan 2005 100,000 killed

  • Earthquake in Balochistan 2008

  • Suicide Bomb Attacks 116


Public policy issues

Public Policy Issues

  • Respect and Acceptance of Constitutional Rights of Individuals by the State

  • Restoration of Independent Judiciary

  • Bring Transparency and End Corruption

  • Pro-poor Public Policy

  • Strengthening of Planning

  • Preparation of PRSP - 2


Oecd korea policy centre

THANK YOU


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