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Changes in Presidential Nomination Rules

*. Changes in Presidential Nomination Rules. Trend from Caucuses to Primaries *. The Use of Binding Primaries *. *. Contribution Limits Since 1974. *. Soft Money Collected by Election Cycle. *. Electoral College “Winners’ Bonus” 1900-1996. *.

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Changes in Presidential Nomination Rules

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  1. * Changes in Presidential Nomination Rules

  2. Trend from Caucuses to Primaries *

  3. The Use of Binding Primaries *

  4. * Contribution Limits Since 1974

  5. * Soft Money Collected by Election Cycle

  6. * Electoral College “Winners’ Bonus” 1900-1996

  7. * Models of Boundaries on Presidential Power Restricted Model (Taft) Hypothetical Space Encompassing All Possible Presidential Powers Stewardship Model (T. Roosevelt) Prerogative Model (Lincoln)

  8. * The Presidency’s Central Legislative Clearanceand Budget-Making Power Post-1921 Pre-1921 The Presidency Government Agencies Requests for Authority Gov’t Agencies Bureau of the Budget (BOB)* Congress Executive Budget Requests for Money Approved Agenda * in 1970, BOB was reorganized and renamed the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

  9. * Growth in the E.O.P Data extended: 1800 employedin EOP in2013

  10. * Composition of the EOP President Office of Management and Budget White House Office Office of Policy Development National Security Council Council of Economic Advisers Office of the Vice President Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Office of Science and Technology Policy Office on National Drug Control Policy Office of Administration Council on Environmental Quality

  11. PYRAMID President Chief of Staff Staff Staff Staff * Presidential Management Styles SPOKES OF THE WHEEL Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff President Staff Staff Staff

  12. * The Presidential Context

  13. SPLIT TICKET VOTING *

  14. * Divided Government in the 20th Century

  15. * The Disappearing Middle Pre-Reagan Mean: 21.2% Post-Reagan Mean: 9.7% 1953 1996

  16. * Inside vs. Outside Strategy The ‘Going Public’ Model The Exchange Model President Congress President Congress Public(in general or special interests) Public

  17. Return Court’s Findings on McCain-Feingold (BCRA)

  18. Popular vote winner does not = President Bush, 2000 Harrison, 1888 Hayes, 1876 Return

  19. Power and Presidents All the power that might possibly be granted to a president Forbidden Not Forbidden Granted W. Taft T. Roosevelt, Wilson Lincoln Forbidden Return

  20. Small State “Advantage” in the Electoral College Return • Wyoming: Population = 500,000 • 3 Electoral College votes • Each EC vote represents 167,000 people. • California: Population = 34,000,000 • 55 Electoral College votes • Each EC vote represents 618,000 people. WYOMING’S ADVANTAGE: Each Wyoming resident “counts” almost 4x as much in the Electoral College.

  21. President as Chief. . . • (or Head) of State: • Ceremonial Activities • Firstpitch • Awards ceremonies • Honoring teams

  22. President as Chief. . . • Executive: • “Head” of bureaucracy • Oversees implementation & enforcement of laws • Hires/fires officials • Pardoning powers

  23. President as Chief. . . • Diplomat: • Makes treaties • Receives foreign officials • Represents the U.S. abroad

  24. President as Chief. . . • of Party: • “Voice” of the party • Raise funds

  25. President as Chief. . . • Commander-in-Chief: • Head of the military • Sends troops into conflicts* • *1973 War Powers Act (reaction to Vietnam) • Must report to Congress in 48 hours • Must withdraw troops within 90 days if Congress does not give approval in that time • Presidents (like Clinton in Kosovo) have claimed that it is unconstitutional

  26. President as Chief. . . • Legislator: • Presidential agenda • Role in legislative process (veto powers) • Return

  27. The Electoral College: --51 separate presidential elections --Notice how Nebraska and Maine are different Return

  28. Party Polarization Over Time 1982:President Reagan (Republican) needs to pass a bill… Winning coalition (must get over half) Notice how many moderate (or even conservative) Democrats with whom President Reagan could negotiate

  29. Party Polarization Over Time 1994:President Clinton (Democrat) needs to pass a bill… Winning coalition (must get over half) Notice how many fewer moderate Republicans there are with whom President Clinton could negotiate

  30. Party Polarization Over Time 2002:President Bush (Republican) needs to pass a bill… Winning coalition (must get over half) Notice how many fewer moderate Democrats there are with whom President Bush could negotiate

  31. Return Party Polarization Over Time 2011:President Obama (Democrat) needs to pass a bill… Winning coalition (must get over half) There are no moderate Republicans with whom President Obama can negotiate

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