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Institute for Sustainability, Health and Environment Inaugural Conference Anticipating tomorrow for changing today UWE, Bristol, 21 st April 2009 Sara Parkin Founder Director www.forumforthefuture.org.uk.

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Institute for Sustainability, Health and Environment Inaugural ConferenceAnticipating tomorrow for changing todayUWE, Bristol, 21st April 2009Sara ParkinFounder Directorwww.forumforthefuture.org.uk


What will relationship between health and environmental sustainability look like in 2035 and what to do now?

Well before 2035:

  • We are headed for irretrievable breakdown

  • Government chief scientists expects a ‘perfect storm’ of catastrophes

    What to do

  • Heed Obama’s advisors

  • Let realism and urgency infect everything we do

  • Start an emergency programme to build ‘sustainability literacy’


Symptoms of Unsustainability

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

15 out of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or being used unsustainably

Millennium Development Goals 2005

“If current trends exist there is a risk many of the poorest countries will not be able to meet many of them”


Big symptom of un sustainability climate change manifest globally locally
Big symptom of unsustainability – climate change manifest globally & locally


Climatic Trends

Observations confirm worst-case IPCC trajectories are being realised.

Social disruption

Many societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change

Long-Term Strategy

Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation is required to avoid "dangerous climate change"

Equity Dimensions

Climate change will have strongly differential effects on people (intra and inter-generational) and biodiversity.

Inaction is Inexcusable

Many of the tools and approaches to deal effectively with the climate change challenge already exist.

Meeting the Challenge

Need to overcome significant constraints (e.g. inertia in economic and social systems) and seize critical opportunities (development of the green economy).

Copenhagen: key messages


The (im)perfect storm

Source: CSA March 2009


Unsustainable development

Shrinking supply side

  • Growing demand side

  • 1946 2.2 billion

  • 1972 3.6 billion

  • 6.8 billion

  • 2035 8.5 billion

  • 2050 9.2 (10.7) billion

“Normally, large, aggressive, predatory mammals are rare – humans have broken this rule”

Colin Tudge, 2005


Numbers matter,

but so does space and impact

people carbon emissions per sq km p/capita p/year

tonnes

Bangladesh 954 0.2

Netherlands 468 8.7

England & Wales 389 11

China 143 2.2

European Union (25) 118 2.8

Kenya 53 0.3

USA 29 19.8

Multiple sources


Inequality in ghg emissions
Inequality in GHG emissions

N America

tons CO2e/y

per person

Europe

Middle East

North Africa

S and C America

5

Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Population (billions)

Watkinson LWEC


The impacts of population change on ghg emissions
The impacts of population change on GHG emissions

1 billion fewer people

in Africa

4 billion fewer people

in Asia and Africa

1 billion fewer US-style

consumers

Watkinson LWEC


Population policy in the UK?

  • 33-40% pregnancies (all ages) unplanned, rising to 90% in teenagers

  • Inconsistent relationship and sex education

  • Difficult to access services and full choice of contraceptives

  • Child benefit

  • Aging population seen as needing more births

  • No links between population and environment


Us national intelligence council

US National Intelligence Council


What are you teaching

BACK TO THE PAST … or … FORWARD TO SUS’Y?? well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

can you imagine a different future?

inthe depression

What are you teaching?

We are here


Sustainability literacy

Sustainability Literacy well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

  • Understand why behaviour needs to change

  • Have the knowledge and skills to behave differently

  • Be able to recognise and reward right behaviour in others

Forum for the Future, UK Sustainable Development Strategy


Four Habits of Thought well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

  • Resilience

  • Relationships

  • Reflection

  • Reverence


Sustainability and health priorities

CarbonWatchers: per capita targets 11 tonnes now, well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

7 by 2020, 2 by 2050

  • cut out waste

  • grow natural capital

    Two will do population policy

  • bust myths that population growth is good

  • keep old active and healthy

    Grow human and social capital

  • improve mental and physical health

  • build capacity to participate – and take action

  • develop community resilience

Sustainability and health priorities


Make the connections, win the argument well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

freedom from calamity

prosperity

enjoyment of health

WELFARE

HEALTH BEING WELL HAPPY

soundness of fortunate

body/mindWEALTHcontent

wholesome prosperity felicitous

thriving

flourishing

all of these are cheaper than the opposite


well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest”

Mark Twain

Thank you for listening!

www.forumforthefuture.org

Forum for the Future


T well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

  • x


S well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.”

x


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