New techniques of reliability and their application to offshore wind farms
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New Techniques of Reliability and their Application to Offshore Wind Farms. European Offshore Wind 2009, Stockholm Technology and Innovation Offshore Wind Turbine Reliability 16 th September 2009. Introduction - Michael Starling. Background

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New techniques of reliability and their application to offshore wind farms

New Techniques of Reliability and their Application to Offshore Wind Farms

European Offshore Wind 2009, Stockholm

Technology and Innovation

Offshore Wind Turbine Reliability

16th September 2009


Introduction michael starling

Introduction - Michael Starling

Background

  • Chartered Mechanical Engineer, started work in 1979, worked for BMT since 1990

  • worked in Renewable Energy since 2004

  • specialise in engineering and risk

  • applied to transport, energy and the built environment

    Current/recent projects

  • construction, transportation and installation system for concrete offshore wind turbine foundations (with Gifford)

  • reliability, maintainability and survivability guide for the European Marine Energy Centre in Orkney

  • navigation impact assessment of a tidal fence across the Severn


Introduction bmt

Introduction - BMT

British Ship Research Association

NMI Ltd

British Maritime Technology Ltd

established 1985 (now BMT Group Ltd)


Reliability some major projects

Reliability – Some major projects

  • Air to Air Refuelling Tanker Aircraft


Reliability some major projects1

Reliability – Some major projects

  • Channel Tunnel Trains


Reliability some major projects2

Reliability – Some major projects

  • Ro Ro Ferries


Reliability some major projects3

Reliability – Some major projects

  • Offshore and Subsea Oil & Gas


Reliability personal contact with my work

Reliability – Personal contact with my work

  • Aircraft Fuel Pumps – Airport Baggage Handling – Airport Trains – Metros - Escalators


Reliability a current project

Reliability – A current project

  • Pulse Tidal Generator


Who achieves high reliability

Who achieves high reliability?


Aircraft achieve high reliability

Aircraft achieve high reliability

  • An A330 will typically achieve greater than 98.5% operational availability

  • and they guaranteed it from day 1


How do they achieve high reliability

How do they achieve high reliability?


Fundamental economic driver

Fundamental economic driver

  • A complete common purpose between safety, reliability, performance and profitability


International standards driven

International standards driven

  • Everything is specification, certification and approvals led


Technical drivers

Technical drivers

  • Complete hierarchy of specification and certification from the smallest component to the whole aircraft and from an individual maintainer to the operator

  • Approvals are technical, organisational and individual

  • There is international commonality and transferability


Functional drivers

Functional drivers

  • Aircraft design based on equipment functionality and integrity

    • and on appropriate redundancy


Appropriate redundancy

Appropriate redundancy

  • Redundancy “enhances high integrity”

  • It does not “compensate for low integrity”


What process do they follow

What process do they follow?


Formal processes of assurance

Formal processes of assurance

  • Defining what the equipment, operation or service has to do

  • Designing, operating and maintaining it to do it

  • Finding some assurance that it will “work and keep on working”


Summary

Summary

  • Aircraft Achieve High Reliability By

  • Reliable Design

  • demonstrated by

  • Reliability Assurance

  • based on

  • Integrity, Functionality, Appropriate Redundancy and Comprehensive Testing

  • mandated by

  • Specification, Certification and Approval

  • and controlled through life by

  • Monitoring and Modification


Three topics for rest of this paper

Three topics for rest of this paper

  • Design for reliability

  • Maintain for reliability

  • Success-based reliability


Design for reliability

Design for Reliability


How reliable does a device have to be

How reliable does a device have to be?

  • Common measure of reliability is Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF)

    • Common belief that a 10 year MTBF means that the equipment will last about 10 years

    • That is a 10 year life not a 10 year MTBF

    • After 10 years running approximately 63% of “10 year” MTBF equipment will have failed

    • For 1% failed the MTBF needs to be approximately 1,000 years

    • Some MTBFs

      • Offshore Wind Turbine, 1 month

      • Domestic Boiler, 5 years – Double Glazing, 10 years


Does redundancy help

Does redundancy help?

  • Typical solution to poor reliability is redundancy

    • Works well for repairable systems

    • Works badly for non repairable systems

    • It works better for non-repairable systems when the equipment is reliable

    • It is often better to spend money on increasing integrity rather than fitting redundancy


Design for reliability conclusion

Design for reliability - conclusion

  • Design for high integrity

  • Backup with redundancy only if easy to repair


Maintain for reliability

Maintain for Reliability


What type of maintenance can i do

What type of maintenance can I do?

  • Preventive Maintenance

    • The routine activities to prevent failure, i.e. the servicing

    • Typically done to a planned schedule based on time or usage

    • Ideal is to do when no wind resource available

      Corrective Maintenance

    • The activities required to respond to failure, i.e. the repairs

    • Typically done to a reactive schedule

    • Ideal is to avoid

  • Predictive Maintenance

    • The activities required to respond to an indicator of future failure, i.e. maintenance triggered by some measurement of condition

    • Ideal is to be able to defer predictive maintenance to times when preventive maintenance takes place


What type of maintenance should i do

  • Classical “Bathtub”

  • Wear-out

  • Degradation

  • Initial Success

  • Steady

  • Early Life Failure

What type of maintenance should I do?

  • Depends on the nature of the failure


Effect of time scheduled maintenance

  • Classical “Bathtub”

  • Bit worse

  • Made better

  • Wear-out

  • Bit better

  • Degradation

  • Initial Success

  • Bit better

  • No difference

  • Steady

  • Made worse

  • Early Life Failure

Effect of time scheduled maintenance


Example using of aircraft data

  • Classical “Bathtub”

  • Bit worse

4%

  • Made better

2%

  • Wear-out

5%

  • Bit better

  • Degradation

7%

  • Initial Success

  • Bit better

  • No difference

14%

  • Steady

68%

  • Made worse

  • Early Life Failure

Example using of aircraft data


Maintain for reliability conclusion

Maintain for reliability - conclusion

  • Define maintenance based on understanding the types of failure


Success based reliability

Success-based reliability


A bit of history

A bit of history

  • These success-based techniques grew out of failure

    • failure of reliability techniques to lead to change

    • failure of techniques to improve reliability

    • failure of techniques to be value for money

      Led to questioning the fundamental reliability techniques

    • techniques are focussed on failure

    • should they be focussed on success?


Focus on success

Focus on success

  • For many years those of us in reliability have concentrated on understanding and eliminating failure.

    • why things fails, when they fail, where they fail and how to stop them failing are questions that are examined in great detail.

  • However in doing so we may have overlooked the equal importance of understanding and creating success.

    • why things work, when they work, where they work and how to make them work are equally, or perhaps more important, questions.


How to achieve success via assurance

How to achieve success? – via assurance

  • to define what the equipment, operation or service has to do

  • to design it and operate it to do it

  • find some evidence that it will work and keep on working.

  • identify and eliminate threats to success.


Assurance via developing a reliability case

Assurance via developing a reliability case

  • Part Technical Process

    • that aims to provide the “Evidence of Success” and

    • identify and eliminate the “Risk of Failure”

    • and produce a “Reasoned Argument” supporting expected performance

  • Part Management Process

    • that aims to provide “Scrutiny” that the evidence and argument is valid


  • Assessing the quality of the evidence

    Assessing the quality of the evidence

    • Proof?

    Evidence?

    Faith?


    Producing a reasoned argument

    Producing a reasoned argument

    • The reasoned argument leads to

      • a claim of expected reliability performance

      • an assessment of the level of risk associated with the claim

    There is an obligation to use all evidence, the supporting and the opposing


    Typical management process providing scrutiny

    Typical Management Process – providing scrutiny


    This philosophy is not new

    This philosophy is not new

    • Rene Descartes

    • 1596 - 1650

    • Knowledge should be based on

    • “Proof and evidence rather than just faith”

    • and

    • “Nothing should be accepted unless subject to scrutiny”


    And finally

    And finally

    • Some advice on how to achieve high reliability

      • Specify the reliability you want

        • and specify it in terms meaningful to your business

      • Design to achieve it

        • but beware the false promise of redundancy

      • Build up a Reliability Case

        • and expose it to scrutiny (and don’t always believe your experts!)

      • Maintain for reliability

        • base your maintenance on understanding failure


    New techniques of reliability and their application to offshore wind farms

    Discussion

    Michael Starling

    BMT Fleet Technology

    www.fleetech.com

    [email protected]

    +44(0)780 3925110


    Typical technical process building up evidence

    Typical Technical Process – building up evidence


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