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MASON RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency

MASON RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency Claudio Cioffi-Revilla and Mark Rouleau Center for Social Complexity George Mason University, Fairfax (Washington DC) Research funded by ONR MURI grant no. N00014-08-1-0921 (PM Dr. Rebecca Goolsby).

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MASON RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency

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  1. MASON RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency Claudio Cioffi-Revilla and Mark Rouleau Center for Social Complexity George Mason University, Fairfax (Washington DC) Research funded by ONR MURI grant no. N00014-08-1-0921 (PM Dr. Rebecca Goolsby)

  2. Problem Overview • Exploring the complex relationship between Government and Populace using an explicit polity (political system) model • Understanding the feedback amongst Citizen Satisfaction, Issue Management, and Government Legitimacy • Growing civil unrest and polity instability from the “Bottom Up” within an Agent-Based Model

  3. Research Questions • Under what conditions does state failure lead to civil unrest? • Under what conditions does civil unrest lead to regime change? • What are the characteristic features of society undergoing regime change?

  4. Theoretical Overview • Relative Depravation (Gurr 1968) • Opportunity (Fearon and Laitin 2003) • Greed and Grievance (Collier and Hoeffler 2004) • The Strategy of Violence (Kalyvas 2004) • Battle for the State (Cederman and Girardin 2007)

  5. Model Overview • Constructed using MASON simulation toolkit • Agent Environment • Simulation Agents • Agent Behavior

  6. Agent Environment (1/4)

  7. Agent Environment (2/4)

  8. Agent Environment (3/4)

  9. Agent Environment (4/4)

  10. Simulation Agents • Primary Agents • General Population • City • State • Secondary Agents • Rebel • Rebel Group • Police/Military Unit

  11. Earn Spend Eat Check Satisfaction Rebel General Population If Satisfied: Continue Else

  12. Check Satisfaction Perceived Wealth Inflation Environmental Catastrophe Subsistence Needs Terrorism Security Unaddressed Social Issues Satisfaction

  13. Tax Check Issue Check Rebel Generate Policy Generate Military Unit City Then If: Issues Exist Then If: Rebels Exist Else Else

  14. Redistribute Funds Distribute Food Tax State

  15. Secondary Agents • Rebel • Avoid Military Units • Defend from Attack • Commit Terrorism • Rebel Group • Support Rebels • Fund Alternative Policies • Police/Military Units • Seek Rebels • Attack Rebels • Guard Home City

  16. Model Demonstration • Scenario #1: Stable State • Low issue complexity/No terrorism • Government remains legitimate • Scenario #2: Semi-Stable State • Medium to high issue complexity • Strong military pressure on rebels • Regime change unlikely • Scenario #3: Unstable State • Medium to high issue complexity/Terrorism likely • Government usually falls (but not always) • Rebels take advantage of government failure

  17. Results - Scenario 1 (1/3)

  18. Results - Scenario 1 (2/3)

  19. Results - Scenario 1 (3/3)

  20. Results - Scenario 2 (1/3)

  21. Results - Scenario 2 (2/3)

  22. Results - Scenario 2 (3/3)

  23. Results - Scenario 3 (1/3)

  24. Results - Scenario 3 (2/3)

  25. Results - Scenario 3 (3/3)

  26. Questions?

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