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Expansions to NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability Progress in 2008 October 7, 2008

Expansions to NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability Progress in 2008 October 7, 2008 Paula Davidson*, Rohit Mathur, Jeff McQueen, Scott Jackson, Ivanka Stajner, Ken Carey * NWS Manager, Air Quality Forecast Capability. Outline. Background on NAQFC Progress in 2008

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Expansions to NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability Progress in 2008 October 7, 2008

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  1. Expansions to NOAA’s National Air Quality Forecast Capability Progress in 2008 October 7, 2008 Paula Davidson*, Rohit Mathur, Jeff McQueen, Scott Jackson, Ivanka Stajner, Ken Carey *NWS Manager, Air Quality Forecast Capability

  2. Outline • Background on NAQFC • Progress in 2008 • Operational products: • Experimental products • Developmental testing • Coordination with Partners • Looking Ahead

  3. 2005: O3 2007: O3,smoke National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityCurrent and Planned Capabilities, 10/08 • Improving the basis for AQ alerts • Providing AQ information for people at risk • FY08 Prediction Capabilities: • Operations: Ozone, expanded from EUS to CONUS, 9/07 Smoke implemented over CONUS, 3/07 • Experimental testing: Ozone upgrades Smoke predictions over AK • Developmental testing: • components for particulate matter (PM) forecasts • Near-term Operational Targets: • Ozone, smoke coverage extended Nationwide • Longer range: • Quantitative PM2.5 prediction • Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours • Include broader range of significant pollutants

  4. AQI: Peak Oct 4 National Air Quality Forecast Capability End-to-End Operational Capability • Model Components: Linked numerical prediction system • Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer • NAM mesoscale NWP: WRF-NMM • CMAQ for AQ; HYSPLIT for smoke • Observational Input: • NWS weather observations; NESDIS fire locations • EPA emissions inventory • Gridded forecast guidance products • On NWS servers: www.weather.gov/aq and ftp-servers • On EPA servers • Updated 2x daily • Verification basis, near-real time: • Ground-level AIRNow observations • Satellite smoke observations • Customer outreach/feedback • State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA • Public and Private Sector AQ constituents

  5. Progress in 2008 • Operational Products: • Ozone: Coast-to-Coast (CONUS) guidance implemented 9/07; 2008 updates for emissions, WRF-NMM • Smoke: CONUS guidance implemented 3/07; 12/07 upgrade to full vertical resolution • Experimental Products: • Ozone: CB-05 chem mechanism, developing prototypes for AK, HI • Smoke: Expanded coverage to AK, 6/08 • Developmental Products: • Aerosols: Developmental testing providing comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations. (CONUS) • CMAQ (aerosol option), testing CB05 chemical mechanism • Prototypes for AK, HI (ozone); HI (smoke) • Dust and smoke inputs: testing dust contributions to PM2.5 from global sources • Preliminary tests combining dust with CMAQ-aerosol • Case studies combining smoke inputs with CMAQ-aerosol • R&D efforts continuing in chemical data assimilation, real-time emissions sources, advanced chemical mechanisms

  6. Verification Statistics: Example Max 8-hr O3 081507 Fraction Correct: 0.92 Max 8-hr O3 081507 Eder et al. 2008

  7. Fraction Correct Progress from 2005 to 2007:Ozone Prediction Summary Verification 2005 Initial Operational Capability (IOC) Operational, NE US Domain Operational NEUS 2005 Experimental, Eastern US Approved 8/05 to replace IOC (NE US) in operations Experimental EUS 2006 Operational, Eastern US Operational EUS 2007 Experimental, Contiguous US Approved 9/07 to replace Eastern US config in operations Experimental CONUS

  8. Progress from 2007 to 2008:CONUS O3 Prediction Summary Verification 2007 Contiguous US (CONUS) Implemented 9/07 to replace Eastern US config in operations JJA: 0.974 Experimental CONUS 2008 CONUS, wrt 85ppb Threshold JJA: 0.980 Operational CONUS

  9. Prediction Accuracy and Ozone Thresholds Effect on FC: moderate reduction

  10. Smoke Predictions Summary: Warm Season, 2007 and 2008 2007 • FC generally > 0.7 • FC Target not established for qualitative smoke tool • Based on satellite AOD; column verification only • TS cum = 0.159; Target = 0.08 (Column verification) 2008 • FC generally > 0.6 • TS cum = 0.133

  11. Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental Testing Experimental Operational Experimental Predictions Publicly available, real-time Ozone: • CMAQ with advanced gas-phase chemical mechanism CB05 • more comprehensive Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) reactions • challenge: more O3 with CB05 • regional implications: CA, NE US Smoke: • Testing over AK domain • new GOES-W smoke verification in development • challenge: little fire activity in 2008 weather.gov/aq-expr weather.gov/aq

  12. Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs. Operational O3 at 85 ppb Experimental Operational Experimental vs Operational, 85ppb: FC decreases in exptl predictions

  13. Real-time Testing, Summer 2008: Experimental vs Operational O3 at 76 ppb Experimental Operational Experimental vs. Operational, 76 ppb: FC decreases in exptl predictions

  14. fine particles PM2.5 CB-05 Developmental Developmental Testing, Summer 2008 Developmental Predictions: Focus group access only, real-time as resources permit Real-time Testing, Aerosols from NEI sources: • CMAQ, Gas-phase CB05 June 10 • aerosol chemical reactions (AERO-4) with heterogeneous pathways • sea salt emissions and chemistry included in aerosol module Expanded domains: • HI smoke • Exploring HI, AK ozone

  15. Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2008 Emissions Correction August 16, 2008 August 17, 2007

  16. Lower threshold Aerosol Summary: 2008

  17. Partnering with AQ Forecasters • Focus group of state and local AQ forecasters: • Participate in real-time developmental testing of new capabilities, e.g. aerosol predictions • Provide feedback on reliability, utility of test products • Emphasize local episodes/case studies • Meet regularly to examine test predictions, discuss feedback, potential improvements • Work together with EPA’s AIRNow & NOAA • Forecaster Coordination: • WFO and NCEP/HPC forecasters provide weather information for partner AQ forecasters • Web-site for AQ forecasters, interactive discussion on event-driven basis

  18. PHL O3 and aerosol predictions -- Ryan, 2008 Experimental Ozone Guidance, 6/17 -9/10, 1200 UTC Observed Mean: 64.5 ppbv Operational Bias: +4.8 ppbv Experimental Bias: +8.3 ppbv Increased over-prediction consistent day-to-day as weather conditions changed. Developmental aerosol guidance, 7/12 -9/10, 1200 UTC Daily 24-hr max

  19. National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityLooking Ahead • Nationwide ozone and particulate matter predictions • Expanding ozone & smoke to nationwide coverage, Target: FY10 and • Begin quantitative particulate matter predictions, Target: FY14 • Providing information Nationwide on when/where poor AQ is expected • Reducing losses to life (50,000) each year from poor AQ • Reducing economic losses ($150B each year) from poor AQ

  20. National AQF Capability:Next Steps • Developing Particulate matter components: • Smoke from large fires: experimental testing in AK, HI • Components for quantitative PM forecast capability: • Objective satellite products for verification (ongoing) • Aerosols predictions from anthropogenic source emissions in inventories: continued development/testing/analysis– testing advanced chemical mechanisms • Further component development, chemical data assimilation, dust, speciated fire emissions, “in-line” coupling of weather and AQ simulation • Developmental and experimental testing, integrated quantitative PM capability • Target operational implementation for initial PM forecasts, NE US: FY14 • Expanding, Improving Ozone forecast guidance • Closer coupling of AQ with NAM; treatments/resolution, horizontal boundary conditions… • Development of AK, HI capabilities; target operational implementation in FY10 • Extend forecast range to Day 2 and beyond

  21. Acknowledgments: AQF Implementation Team Members • OCWWS Jannie Ferrell Outreach, Feedback • OCIO Cindy Cromwell, Allan Darling, Bob Bunge Data Communications • OST/MDL Jerry Gorline Dev. Verification • OST/MDL Marc Saccucci, Tim Boyer, Dave Ruth NDGD Product Development • OST Ken Carey, Ivanka StajnerProgram Support • NESDIS/NCDC Alan Hall Product Archiving • NOAA/OARJim Meagher NOAA AQ Matrix Manager • NCEP • Jeff McQueen, Pius Lee, Marina Tsidulko, Youhua Tang, EMC AQF model interface development, testing and integration • Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim • *Sarah Lu Global data assimilation and feedback testing (NASA, NESDIS) • *Brad Ferrier, *Dan Johnson, *Eric Rogers, *Hui-Ya Chuang WRF/NAM coordination • Geoff Manikin Smoke Product testing and integration • John Ward, Brent Gordon, Chris Magee NCO transition and systems testing • Robert Kelly, Bob Bodner, Andrew Orrison HPC coordination and AQF webdrawer * Guest Contributors • NOAA/OAR • Daewon Byun, Shaocai Yu, Daiwen Kang, Hsin-Mu Lin, CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQF • David Wong, Daniel Tong, Tianfeng Chai • Roland Draxler, Glenn Rolph, Ariel Stein HYSPLIT adaptations • NOAA/NESDIS • Shobha Kondragunta, Jian Zeng Smoke Verification product development • Matt Seybold, Mark Ruminski HMS product integration with smoke forecast tool • EPA/OAQPS • Chet Wayland, Phil Dickerson, Scott Jackson, Brad Johns AIRNow development, coordination with NAQFC • EPA/ORD • Rohit Mathur, Ken Schere, Jon Pleim, Tanya Otte, CMAQ development, adaptation of AQ simulations for AQF • Jeff Young, George Pouliot, Brian Eder

  22. Operational AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/aq CONUS Ozone Expansion Implemented September, 2007 Smoke ProductsImplemented March, 2007 Further information: www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/air_quality

  23. Appendix

  24. Updates in 2008Operational Products • WRF update (March, 2008) • Size: Expanded domain by 18% • Model Parameterizations: Implemented gravity wave mountain drag parameterization, modified horizontal advection for better mass conservation, Improved surface longwave radiation calculation, Improved soil moisture calculations OCONUS • Data assimilation: Upgraded GSI with NMM bkgd error covariances, more satellite obs • Ozone Predictions: Emissions Updates (May, 2008) • Point, area and mobile source emissions: updated based on NEI (2005) and projected for the current year. • EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality on-road emissions estimates • EGU sources: 2006 CEM data projected for 2008. • Biogenic sources: updated with BEIS 3.13 • Smoke Predictions (December, 2007): • Increased vertical resolution: now at full NAM 60-layer resolution • Increased computational efficiency, faster product delivery

  25. Continuing Science UpgradesImprovements to the expanding NAQFC • Continuing R&D required • OAR and EPA working actively with NWS to provide prototype capabilities for pre-operational development, testing experimental production, and implementation • Assuring quality with science peer reviews: • Design review of major system upgrades (initial, yearly upgrades) • Diagnostic evaluations with field campaigns and evaluations • Publication of T&E in peer-reviewed literature Ozone Capability • Otte et al. Weather and Forecasting, 20, 367-385 (2005) • Lee et al., J Applied Meteorology and Climatology, in press (2007) • Mckeen et al., J. Geophys. Res. 110, D21307 (2005) • Yu, et al. , J. Geophys. Res. (2007) Smoke Tool • Prados et al., J. Geophys. Res. 112, D15201 (2007) • Kondragunta et al., submitted for publication • Rolph et al., submitted for publication • Zeng and Kondragunta, ms. in preparation • Ruminski, Kondragunta, Draxler and Zeng, in preparation

  26. National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityMajor Components: IOC Weather Observations NWP Model NAM/Eta-12 NOAA/NWS NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules EPA’s National Emissions Inventory: EPA/OAQPS AQ Module: Emissions Preprocessor PREMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD IT /Comms NOAA/NWS and EPA/OAQPS AQ Module: Air Quality Reactive Transport CMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD

  27. Smoke Forecast Tool: What is it? • Overview • Passive transport/dispersion computed with HYSPLIT & WRF-NAM (or GFS, OCONUS). 24-hr spin-up, 48-hour prediction made daily with 6Z cycle • Fire Locations • NESDIS/HMS: Filtered ABBA product (only fires with observed associated smoke) • Emissions • USFS’ BlueSky algorithm for emitted PM2.5 • Smoke Transport/dispersion • HYSPLIT (Lagrangian); plume rise based on combustion heat and meteorology • Verification • Based on satellite imagery for footprint of extent of observed smoke in atmospheric column exceeding threshold of detection

  28. Smoke Forecast ToolMajor Components Weather Observations NWP Model NAM/WRF-NMM NOAA/NWS NESDIS HMS Fire Locations NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules USFS’s BlueSky Emissions Inventory: USFS HYSPLIT Module: NOAA/OAR Verification: NESDIS/GASP Smoke

  29. New Threshold and FC FC increase Good at Lower Threshold Miss Good Good Prediction Good at Lower Threshold Miss at Lower Threshold Miss at Lower Threshold Old Threshold New Threshold Miss Good Pred = Obs Observation FC decrease

  30. Emissions Correction 2008 Developmental Aerosol Predictions: Summary Verification, 2007-2008 2007

  31. Daily Aerosol VerificationMarch 5 – 20, 2008 Note: sudden improvement from March 16

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