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Does College Education Impact Adult Morbidities? Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft. Bo MacInnis Institute for Social Research University of Michigan. Motivations. Health behaviors and morbidities as potential mechanisms for Understanding education-mortality relation

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does college education impact adult morbidities evidence from pre lottery vietnam war draft

Does College Education Impact Adult Morbidities?Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft

Bo MacInnisInstitute for Social ResearchUniversity of Michigan

motivations
Motivations
  • Health behaviors and morbidities as potential mechanisms for
    • Understanding education-mortality relation
    • Curbing rising health care costs
  • College education
    • Steepest gradient observed
    • Steady decline in males’ college enrollment
education health gradient
Education-Health Gradient

Author’s calculations from NHIS 1998-2003

enrollment rate females
Enrollment rate: females

Card & Lemieux 2000

education health literature
Education-Health Literature
  • Instruments for college education
    • Arkes (2001): Unemployment rate. Reduce work-limiting health conditions
    • Currie and Moretti (2003): College opening. Increases infant’s birth weight
    • Lleras-Muney (2002), Adams (2002): Compulsory school law. Reduces mortality; increases good health
    • Kenkel etc. (2006): K-12 education policy. High school graduation reduces smoking.
slide8
Smoking & College Education
    • De Walque (2004), Grimard & Parent (2005)
    • Vietnam War draft: Card and Lemieux (2001)
    • Reduce smoking initiation
    • No evidence on smoking cessation
  • Contributions
    • Discontinuity research design
    • Endogenous effect of veteran status
a quasi natural experiment
A Quasi-Natural Experiment
  • Pre-lottery draft: 1965-1969
    • Most draftees were aged 19-22
    • Deferments were easily obtainable
      • College attendance
      • Children and other family hardship
    • High inductions
    • Consequence for males of cohorts 1945-50
a quasi natural experiment cont
A Quasi-Natural Experiment (cont.)
  • Draft lottery institutionalized in 1970
    • Random Sequence Number (RSN)
    • 1970 lottery for cohorts 1946-50
    • 1971-3 lottery for cohort 1951-3 respectively
  • Much reduced inductions
  • College deferments effectively eliminated
  • Consequence to males of cohorts 1951-1953
slide15
Data
  • National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1998-2003
    • Personal characteristics (veteran status)
    • Health outcomes: chronic conditions
    • Lifestyle behaviors: smoking
    • Body weight and height
  • Base sample
    • Males and females U.S. born of birth cohorts 1942-1953, sample size = 30,158
estimation
Estimation

Health = b*educ + b1*veteran + X*B + b2*trend + error

  • Linear probability model for educ, veteran, health
  • IV for educ = male * cohorts 1946-1950
  • IV for veteran = male * draft age eligibility
    • Difference of age in 1967 and 19 (quartic terms)
  • trend = no/linear/quadratic trend
  • X = age, gender, race, survey year, and interactions
  • Two-stage least square estimation
first stage college education
First Stage: College Education

sample = U.S. born males and females of cohorts 1942-1953;

sample size = 30,158; standard errors are in parentheses.

***, **, *: significant at 1%, 5%, 10%.

robustness checks
Robustness Checks
  • Control for linear, and quadratic trend
  • Use various measures of induction risk as instruments for schooling and veteran
  • Avoidance choices besides going to college
    • Emigrate to Canada – sample selection issue
    • Become delinquent
    • Obtain dependency deferments
concluding remarks
Concluding Remarks
  • Quasi-natural experiment & RDD
    • strong instrument for college education
  • Return to college includes a reduction in
    • smoking, obesity, and diabetes
  • Policy implications
    • Increase college enrollment/completion rates
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