Does college education impact adult morbidities evidence from pre lottery vietnam war draft
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Does College Education Impact Adult Morbidities? Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft. Bo MacInnis Institute for Social Research University of Michigan. Motivations. Health behaviors and morbidities as potential mechanisms for Understanding education-mortality relation

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Does College Education Impact Adult Morbidities? Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft

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Does college education impact adult morbidities evidence from pre lottery vietnam war draft

Does College Education Impact Adult Morbidities?Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft

Bo MacInnisInstitute for Social ResearchUniversity of Michigan


Motivations

Motivations

  • Health behaviors and morbidities as potential mechanisms for

    • Understanding education-mortality relation

    • Curbing rising health care costs

  • College education

    • Steepest gradient observed

    • Steady decline in males’ college enrollment


Education health gradient

Education-Health Gradient

Author’s calculations from NHIS 1998-2003


Enrollment rate females

Enrollment rate: females

Card & Lemieux 2000


Enrollment rate males

Enrollment rate: males


Education health literature

Education-Health Literature

  • Instruments for college education

    • Arkes (2001): Unemployment rate. Reduce work-limiting health conditions

    • Currie and Moretti (2003): College opening. Increases infant’s birth weight

    • Lleras-Muney (2002), Adams (2002): Compulsory school law. Reduces mortality; increases good health

    • Kenkel etc. (2006): K-12 education policy. High school graduation reduces smoking.


Does college education impact adult morbidities evidence from pre lottery vietnam war draft

  • Smoking & College Education

    • De Walque (2004), Grimard & Parent (2005)

    • Vietnam War draft: Card and Lemieux (2001)

    • Reduce smoking initiation

    • No evidence on smoking cessation

  • Contributions

    • Discontinuity research design

    • Endogenous effect of veteran status


Annual number of inductions

Annual Number of Inductions


A quasi natural experiment

A Quasi-Natural Experiment

  • Pre-lottery draft: 1965-1969

    • Most draftees were aged 19-22

    • Deferments were easily obtainable

      • College attendance

      • Children and other family hardship

    • High inductions

    • Consequence for males of cohorts 1945-50


A quasi natural experiment cont

A Quasi-Natural Experiment (cont.)

  • Draft lottery institutionalized in 1970

    • Random Sequence Number (RSN)

    • 1970 lottery for cohorts 1946-50

    • 1971-3 lottery for cohort 1951-3 respectively

  • Much reduced inductions

  • College deferments effectively eliminated

  • Consequence to males of cohorts 1951-1953


Induction risks and college education

Induction Risks and College Education


Induction risks and male female difference in college education

Induction Risks and Male-Female Difference in College Education


Treatment exposure

Treatment Exposure


Does college education impact adult morbidities evidence from pre lottery vietnam war draft

Data

  • National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1998-2003

    • Personal characteristics (veteran status)

    • Health outcomes: chronic conditions

    • Lifestyle behaviors: smoking

    • Body weight and height

  • Base sample

    • Males and females U.S. born of birth cohorts 1942-1953, sample size = 30,158


Smoking initiation and cessation

Smoking Initiation and Cessation


Bmi distributions gender college

BMI Distributions: Gender & College


Bmi distributions gender college1

BMI Distributions: Gender & College


Estimation

Estimation

Health = b*educ + b1*veteran + X*B + b2*trend + error

  • Linear probability model for educ, veteran, health

  • IV for educ = male * cohorts 1946-1950

  • IV for veteran = male * draft age eligibility

    • Difference of age in 1967 and 19 (quartic terms)

  • trend = no/linear/quadratic trend

  • X = age, gender, race, survey year, and interactions

  • Two-stage least square estimation


First stage college education

First Stage: College Education

sample = U.S. born males and females of cohorts 1942-1953;

sample size = 30,158; standard errors are in parentheses.

***, **, *: significant at 1%, 5%, 10%.


Estimates of the impact of college on morbidities

Estimates of the Impact of College on Morbidities

**: p < .05


Robustness checks

Robustness Checks

  • Control for linear, and quadratic trend

  • Use various measures of induction risk as instruments for schooling and veteran

  • Avoidance choices besides going to college

    • Emigrate to Canada – sample selection issue

    • Become delinquent

    • Obtain dependency deferments


Canadian emigrants delinquents

Canadian Emigrants & Delinquents


Live births by year

Live Births by Year


Live births by treatment status

Live Births by Treatment Status


Marriages by year

Marriages by Year


Concluding remarks

Concluding Remarks

  • Quasi-natural experiment & RDD

    • strong instrument for college education

  • Return to college includes a reduction in

    • smoking, obesity, and diabetes

  • Policy implications

    • Increase college enrollment/completion rates


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