The Digital Self When Social Media Gets Personal NextTech CHM  Mountain View, CA Mar 2010

1. The Digital SelfWhen Social Media Gets Personal NextTech CHM  Mountain View, CAMar 2010 John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundationjohnsmart@accelerating.orgSlides: accelerating.org/slides.html

2. Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do ▪ We practice evolutionarydevelopmental (“evodevo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future. ▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include: Acceleratingintelligence, interdependenceandimmunityin our global sociotechnological systems Increasing technological autonomy, and Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-digital interface. © 2010 Accelerating.org

3. “Natural Selection” Main Actor: Organism (Local Adaptation) RequisiteVariety Mixed Attractors Adaptation Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change “Experimentation” Main Actor: Seed (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors Radiation “Convergent Unification” Main Actor: Environment (Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change EvoDevo (Intersection) New Phase Space ‘Opening’ Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ • Some change is: • Experimentation (Evo) • Adaptation/Selection (EvoDevo) • Optimizing/Dominating (Devo) • Learn to tell the difference. For more: Evodevouniverse.com/wiki/project © 2010 Accelerating.org

4. The ‘95/5%’ Rule of Thumb:Evolutionary and Developmental Contributions to Change 5% Devo ▪ The vast majority (perhaps 95%) of the events and computation to create or control a complex system (organism, organization, technology, species, society) involve bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes. ▪ A minor yet critical subset (perhaps 5%) comes from top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes. 95% Evo A few examples: ▪ Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97-8% of Dicty DNA) change often to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (2-3%) which form the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved. ▪ Almost all cells compete for their location in the organism. A very few are fated to a particular location early in development. ▪ Almost all ideas and actions in an organization will not persist. A special few become stable strategies seen in all orgs of that type. ▪ Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary experiments. A special few are destined to become the next big thing. © 2010 Accelerating.org

5. Are You Accelaware? Free Energy Rate Density (Φ) Substrate (ergs/sec/gm) Galaxies 0.5 Stars2 Planets (Early) 75 Ecosystems, Plants 900 (10^2) Animals (hum. body) 20,000 (10^4) Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5) Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5) Modern Engines 10^5 to 10^8 Intel 8080 of the 1970's10^10 Pentium II of the 1990's10^11 Global AI of the 21st C 10^12+ Cosmic Evolution, Eric Chaisson, 2001 Free energy rate density values inhierarchically emergent CAS. © 2010 Accelerating.org

6. World Economic Performance GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A.D. The curve is quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. And superexponential. Note the “knee of the curve” occurs circa 1850, at the Industrial Revolution. Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD, Angus Maddison, 2007 © 2010 Accelerating.org

7. Data grows even faster than processing power and storage.All these grow slightly superexponentially, believe it or not. Developing the algorithms to use all this power, storage, and data is the challenge. For now, humans are by far the best algorithms we’ve got. ▪ Computer power and storage double every 18-24 months. ▪ Created, captured and replicated data doubles every 14-18 months. ▪ By 2011 we’ll be throwing away half the digital data we generate. ▪ A flood of underused capacity in processing, even more in data. The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil, 2005 The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, John Gantz, IDC, 2008 © 2010 Accelerating.org

8. The J Curve • First-Order Components are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves) • Second-Order Hyperbolic GrowthEmergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity Examples: ▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar ▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity) ▪ Global Economic Performance ▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics ▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007. © 2010 Accelerating.org

9. As There is a Hype Cycle for Almost Any Technology: Use “Other People’s Innovation” Wherever You Can. • 95% of the time, you want to be a second mover / “fast follower”. (Evo) • Jump in or buy companies at the trough (Big co. acquisition strategy). • 5% of the time, you want to be a first mover / “pioneer”. (Devo)Go early correctly and you’ll get lock-in (Amazon, eBay, Google, Facebook…) What immature tech products or services do you want to bet on next? As a fast follower or a pioneer? Are you too early or already too late? Capacity/Impact Cumulative Production/Experience (Not Time) The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro, 2009; Mastering the Hype Cycle, Fenn & Raskino, 2008 © 2010 Accelerating.org

10. From the Metaverse to Metahumanity:Evolutionary Development of the Web Metaverseroadmap.org Web Metaverse Metahumanity Web 1.0 Read Mainly (Graphical UI) Web 2.0 Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI) Web 3.0 Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW) Web 4.0 Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm) Web 5.0 Intelligent(Planetization, Global Brain, NUI‘Tech and Social Singularity’) We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback. Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude). Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA, ‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’). This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction process society has ever engaged in. Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org © 2010 Accelerating.org

11. Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality, Collective Intelligence Necklace phone (Nokia 2004) ‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) ‘Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2007) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder. Wearcam.org’s first-gen ‘sousveillance’ cams (2001) iPhone (Apple 2007) © 2010 Accelerating.org

12. IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2012-2019 Siri.com. Amazing NLP for phones today. Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. • Date Avg. Query Platform • 1.3 words Altavista • 2.6 words Google • 5.2 words GoogleHelp • 2019 10.4 words GoogleBrain Average spoken human-to-human complex query is 8-11 words. Smart, J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward. Halevy et. al. 2009. The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data, Intell. Sys. 24(2):8-12. © 2010 Accelerating.org

13. Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/AgentInterface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020? Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality. Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal. “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Ananova, 2000 © 2010 Accelerating.org

14. Milo (and Milly): The Faces of Xbox Natal.Conversational Avatars for Kids. ▪ A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines. ▪ Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of limited intelligence). ▪ Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter every month. Like Google’s does now. Then every week. ▪ A time when serious games can get serious. Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010) © 2010 Accelerating.org

15. Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age A Coevolution Between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology. A time when: ▪ Complex things can “speak our language.” ▪ Our technologies become very responsive to our needs and desires. ▪ Humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. ▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.” © 2010 Accelerating.org

16. Symbiont Networks: The Extended Digital SelfA Post 2015 Emergence? When we have an early Web 3.0, lifelogs, and pervasive broadband connectivity, we can expect… • 150 (Dunbar number)of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page 2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7. • A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders). • Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals. Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation. • New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.). • Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill) and performance enhancement era begins. • Fantastic new subcultural diversity (geek symbionts, futurist symbionts, Quaker symbionts, Shoppers United symbionts, etc.) Page, Scott. 2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies, Princeton U. Press. © 2010 Accelerating.org

17. Circa 2030: The ValuecosmA More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s - Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media © 2010 Accelerating.org

18. Your Cybertwin – Your Digital Self:Helping You Now, Helping Others Later “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: ▪ When your mother dies in 2040, your digital mom will be “50% her.” ▪ When your best friend dies in 2060, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition… of you. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way. Greg Panos and his Digital MomPersonaFoundation.org © 2010 Accelerating.org

19. The Digital Self: Social, Economic, and Political Implications Some Challenges - particularly early: • Data Security and Privacy • Predictive Marketing and Profiling • Debt Slavery and Overconsumption • New Forms of Crime and Fraud • Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community) • Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?) • New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?) Some Opportunities - particularly later: • Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?) • Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks) • Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety • Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier) • Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced) • Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’) • Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts. © 2010 Accelerating.org

20. The Digital Self: Biggest Single Catalyst We’ll See in Our Lifetimes What Do You Want to Improve? • IT/Infrastructure Mgmt • Identity Management • Social Networks • Video Management • Marketing • Education • Knowledge Management • Performance Management • Talent Management • Innovation • Social Responsibility • Environmental Sustainability • Organizational Development • Collective Foresight © 2010 Accelerating.org

21. Tablet Form Factor as a Developmental Optimum:What Uses Do You Predict? Which Will Emerge Next? What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet? #1. iTV Remote! #2. e-Reading, #3 Video, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard. Apple iPad: No Apple TV.Too little, too closed. Will Google get this done? A perfect YouTube front end. Lenovo Ideapad U1: Bestmultiuse design. June 2010 • There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015. • 25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled. • Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television. © 2010 Accelerating.org

22. Discussion