An Analysis of the Column Ozone Trends A Commemoration to the 20 th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol. S-K. Yang 1 , Craig S. Long 2 , Alvin J. Miller 2 , George Tiao 3 , Don Wuebble 4 1 Wyle IS/NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
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An Analysis of the Column Ozone Trends A Commemoration to the 20th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol
S-K. Yang1, Craig S. Long2, Alvin J. Miller2,
George Tiao3, Don Wuebble4
1Wyle IS/NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
2NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD
3University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
4University of Illinois Urbana-Champagne, Champagne, IL
Outline:
Objective:
To estimate the trends and seeking the confidence of “recovery”
SBUV/2-Cohesive by C. Long 1979-2006Inter-annual Variability
The monthly zonal mean total ozone anomalies from the long term mean. The monthly mean zonal total ozone values from the v8 Cohesive Total Ozone Data Set are used. Zones with no observations due to polar night are shown in black.
Figure 3a,b,and c shows the total ozone anomaly time series at 45N, the ‘global’ mean from 50N to 50S, and at 45S, respectively.
Figure 4. Hockey stick trend model showing an initial slope (1) to an inflection point set here to 1996, followed by a slope change (2) resulting in a post inflection point net slope (3). Ozone recovery is implied if the net slope is positive.
Monthly time series of the F10.7 solar cycle, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, and QBO winds. The QBO winds is presented as two projections of the single value decomposition as described in Randel and Wu (1996).
Figure 5. Monthly time series of the F10.7 solar cycle, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, and QBO winds. The QBO winds is presented as two projections of the single value decomposition as described in Randel and Wu (1996).
Figure 5. Monthly time series of the F10.7 solar cycle, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, and QBO winds. The QBO winds is presented as two projections of the single value decomposition as described in Randel and Wu (1996).
Fig.1
Unit: Du/Yr
Fig.2
Fig.3
Fig.4
Fig.5
Fig.6
Fig.7
Fig.8
Fig.9
Conclusions:-The net slope for the ‘global’ average is significantly positive for all combinations of the regressors. The net slope is positive at 45N for all regressors and significant for combinations including the QBO. -The net slope at 45S is neutral for the non-QBO regressor combinations and slightly negative for the QBO regressor combinations, suggesting weak confidence on SH ozone “recovery”.-The QBO regressor plays a significant role in the time variation of ozone anomalies, as well as AO and AAO, which are exclusively significant for the NH and SH, respectively, without inter-hemispheric correlations
Generation
O2 + hv -> O + O(1)
O + O2 -> O3 (2)
(1/v = wavelength < ~ 240 nm)
No-loss
O3 + hv -> O2 + O (3)
O + O2 -> O3 (2) as above
Destroy
O + O3-> O2 + O2 (4)
HCl + ClONO2 ->HNO3 + Cl2(1)
ClONO2 + H2O->HNO3 + HOCl(2)
HCl + HOCl->H2O + Cl2(3)
N2O5 + HCl->HNO3 + ClONO(4)
N2O5 + H2O->2 HNO3(5)
ClO + NO2 + M->ClONO2 + M(6)
Cl2O2 + hv->Cl + ClO2
ClO2 + M->Cl + O2 + M
then:2 x (Cl + O3)->2 x (ClO + O2)
net:2 O3->3 O2
Cl + O3->ClO + O2
Br + O3->BrO + O2
net:2 O3->3 O2