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“GRAYSHORE: The Coming Senior Boom” October 27, 2004. BEACON’s Study in Spring 2004 Aimed To …. Assess the impact of an aging population on the four counties of the Lower Shore. Help regional decision leaders with their program planning and community education efforts.

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slide1

“GRAYSHORE:

The Coming Senior Boom”October 27, 2004

beacon s study in spring 2004 aimed to
BEACON’s Study in Spring 2004 Aimed To …
  • Assess the impact of an aging population on the four counties of the Lower Shore.
  • Help regional decision leaders with their program planning and community education efforts.
slide3

Research was generously supported by…MAC INCORPORATED -- Area Agency on AgingCommunity Foundation of the Eastern ShoreWorcester County Economic Development

what we did
What We Did…
  • Extensive secondary research
  • In-depth Opinion Leader interviews across four Lower Shore counties
  • Multiple stakeholder meetings
an aging world
An Aging World…

Average life expectancy:

1900 47 years

2001 77 years

an aging nation elderly are fastest growing segment
An Aging Nation…Elderly are Fastest Growing Segment
  • [1] U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/elderpop.html.
  • [2] The Decade for Health in Aging: The Challenge, The AGS Foundation for Health in Aging, http://www.healthinaging.org/public_policy/decade_challenge.php.
characteristics of aging population
Characteristics ofAging Population:
  • Disproportionate

number of women.

Currently comprise:

- 59% of 65+

- 70% of 85+

  • More racially and ethnically diverse
slide9

[1] Cultural Issues: Elderly, The New England ATTC (Addiction Technology Transfer Center Network), (http://www.attc-ne.org/cultural/elderly.html.

national median age

National: Median Age

2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

an aging new jersey

An Aging New Jersey…

Us Census Bureau http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/10000.html

http://www.state.nj.us/labor/lra

new jersey upper median age

New Jersey (upper): Median Age

2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

new jersey lower median age

New Jersey (lower): Median Age

2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

an aging delaware
An Aging Delaware…

http://www.state.de.us/dhss/dsaapd/population_projections_delaware.html

delaware median age

Delaware: Median Age

2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

an aging maryland

An Aging Maryland…

Maryland Department of Aging, http://www.mdoa.state.md.us/demographicsn.html, 1.

Us Census Bureau http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/10000.html

maryland median age

Maryland: Median Age

2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

maryland western median age

Maryland (Western): Median Age

2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

an aging virginia
An Aging Virginia…
  • http://www.aging.state.va.us/download%20vecfinalloc.htm
  • http://www.areaconnect.com/population.htm?s=VA
virginia median age

Virginia: Median Age

2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

current and projected of pop 65

Current and Projected % of Pop. 65+

(DE, MD, VA = 2030, N.J. = 2020)

Maryland State Data Center, Projections, http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/dw_map.htm

Accomack and N.hampton http://www.vec.state.va.us/pdf/pop_projs.pdf

Kent and Sussex http://www.cadsr.udel.edu/DOWNLOADABLE/DOCUMENTS/DPC_2001v0.pdf

http://www.wnjpin.net/OneStopCareerCenter/LaborMarketInformation/lmi03/index.html

health realities of older pop
Health Realities of Older Pop.
  • Chronic diseases:

- 75% of 65+ have at least one

- 50% of 65+ have at least two

  • Mental health problems
  • Need “elder-friendly” care
not enough health care professionals
Not Enough Health Care Professionals
  • Geriatricians: Number needs to double
  • Nurses: 20% deficit by 2020
  • Nursing Aides, CNAs, GNAs:

91% of nursing homes

understaffed

not enough affordable shelter care options
Not Enough (Affordable)“Shelter + Care” Options

Most seniors

“age in place”

Goal =

“least restrictive

setting

Needed = long-term

“continuum of care”

public programs haven t caught up
Public Programs Haven’t “Caught Up”
  • Medicare: no long-term care coverage
  • Medicaid: primarily nursing home
  • Assisted living = not covered
  • Subsidized senior housing: wait lists
  • State/Local senior aid programs: funding cuts
fragmented service delivery
Fragmented Service Delivery
  • Multiple agencies
  • Multiple points of entry and

assessments

  • Lack of coordination between housing and social services programs
the good news
The Good News…

Senior poverty is down:

1959: 35% poverty rate

1999: 10% poverty rate

the bad news
The Bad News…
  • New challenges threaten

seniors’ financial security

  • Will affect both low and middle-income seniors
  • Overall, retirees will have $45 billion less than needed to cover basic expenses/year by 2030 (EBRI)
it could be a train wreck
“It could be a train wreck…”
  • Longer lives
  • Chronic illnesses
  • Rising medical costs
  • Decline in pensions
  • Inadequate savings
  • Drop in stock market
  • Credit card/mortgage debt
disparities
Disparities
  • Black and Hispanic

elderly more than 2x

as likely to be poor

  • Women 2x as likely to be poor
  • Rural elderly more likely to be poor
2000 poverty rate 65

2000 Poverty Rate: 65+

Maryland Department of Aging, http://www.mdoa.state.md.us/demographicsn.html, 1-2.

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/

public resources inadequate
Public Resources: Inadequate
  • 1950 16:1

2004 3:1

  • $27.7 trillion
  • DE – 15% 36%

MD – 10% 36%

NJ – 11% 46%

VA – 10% 48%

  • 93
mobility independence
Mobility = Independence
  • “ Useless..”
  • “Miserable…
  • “Confined…”
  • “Lost…”
mobility danger
Mobility = Danger
  • Teenagers and older drivers

have highest per-mile fatal

crash rates

  • By 2030, drivers 65+ are expected to account for 16% of all crashes and 25% of all fatal crashes
i senior spending power
I. Senior Spending Power

Americans who are 50+…

- Control 70% of wealth

- Account for 50% of discretionary spending

ii senior markets
II.Senior Markets
  • Elder care products and services
  • Retrofitted and Universal

Design housing

  • Tourism, recreation, and

education activities

iii seniors in the workforce
III. Seniors in the Workforce
  • 80% of boomers plan to

work past retirement age

  • Hardworking, loyal, experienced
  • Include entrepreneurs / investors
  • May need training, flexible scheduling, “bridge benefits”
iv senior contributions to community
IV.Senior Contributions to Community
  • Voluntarism (87%)
  • Civic Engagement:

The elderly vote accounts

for close to 1/3 of the

vote nationwide (NY Times)

some food for thought
Some Food for Thought…
  • What do we need to do NOW

to prepare for the “senior boom?”

  • How do we balance inter-

generational needs when

resources are limited?

  • How can we meet the needs of both

“from heres” and “come heres?”

  • Can we be “senior friendly” and still retain our youth (i.e., stop brain-drain)?
thank you for this and other presentations
Thank You!For This and Other Presentations…

Visit us at

http://beacon.salisbury.edu

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