Funding from: BOF, Odysseus & GOA (KU Leuven) , EC-FP7 (Soteria, soteria-space.eu )

1.   SOTERIA Initiation Challenge Giovanni Lapenta, Lapo Bettarini Centrum voor Plasma-Astrofysica - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium) with help from Tibor Torok Funding from: BOF, Odysseus & GOA (KU Leuven), EC-FP7 (Soteria, www.soteria-space.eu)

2. Report Deliverable 3.3

3. Report Deliverable 3.3

4. Steps taken for starting the challenge We propose for us and to the community a CME/flare initiation challenge and benchmark How different physics and resolution affects the evolution

5. CME/Flare start model

6. Goals of the challenge • Compare different models: • Ideal MHD • Resistive MHD • Different resitivities • Zero beta MHD • Two fluid and kinetic Useful benchmark for different codes now and in the future Where and how reconnection develops How fast does the prominence raise Tajima, Shibata, Plasma Astrophysics

7. Fluid Physics Simulations

8. Two suggestions for the challenge Fan & Gibson ApJ 609, 1123, 2004 Birn et al ApJ 645, 732, 2006

9. 10:09:30 AM CHALLENGE 1 Modified from Fan & Gibson, ApJ 609, 1123, 2004

10. Approach from Fan&Gibson, ApJ 609, 1123, 2004 We start from the flux rope already emerged, avoiding difficulties with emergence Specific choice of arcade and of rope Expansion against the overarlying arcade Not in equilibrium

11. Model: equations is the distance from the rope (poloidal radius, if ropes is a torus)

12. Typical evolution (FLIP3D-MHD) 10:09:30 AM

13. 10:09:30 AM CHALLENGE 2 Modified from Birn et al, ApJ 645, 732, 2006

14. Approach from Birn et al, ApJ 645, 732, 2006 Twisted flux ropes embedded in a helmet streamer type configuration Connected to the photosphere and anchored to the corona by an overlying arcade Specific choice of the degree of twist and amount of plasma pressure Approximate equilibrium

15. Model: equations

16. Model: features • f = 0.2 nearly force-free flux rope with a strong shear field B • ε = 1 the initial states are not exactly force-balanced. The maximum forces in the vertical direction were found to be approximately 0.1 (normalized by characteristic values of current density and magnetic field)

17. Typical evolution (PLUTO)

18. 2 oral sessions 1 poster session Session at AGU Meeting in San Francisco

19. INTEL ExaScience Lab in Leuven 10:09:30 AM June 8, 2010New Lab to Develop Solar Flare Prediction as Driver for Intel’s Future Exascale Supercomputers (Intel, imec and Five Flemish Universities) http://exascience.com/ Several positions available

20. Deliverable 4.5 (next year) • Task 4: Space weather model validation and forcasting • (Hvar, ROB, KFKI, UOulu, KUL, DTU) • Based on the results of Tasks 1-3 we will improve existing capability and develop new methods for space weather forcasting, including: • Prediction of arrival time of interplanetary CMEs at the Earth (Hvar) • Prediction of geomagnetic disturbances associated with high-speed streams from coronal holes (Hvar) • Validation of the Solar Particle Engineering Code (SOLPENCO) for extreme events (KFKI) • Model validation and prediction of near-Earth solar wind disturbances associated with ICMEs and high speed solar wind streams (KUL, Hvar) and their geo-effectiveness (DTU, UOulu, KFKI, ROB) • Short-term prediction of the magnetic storms and the time development of the improved Dst (UOulu, ROB) • Long-term forcasting of coronal hole and solar activity centre occurrence (UOulu) • Prediction of scintillations (IEEA)

21. New FP7 project on space weather modelling: SWIFF