Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns
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Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns. Franco Sassi PhD OECD – Health Division Rome, 14 th November 2013. UN High-level Meeting on NCDs. Leading Risk Factors for Health Attributable Mortality, 2004. Source: WHO, 2009. Deaths from NCDs Worldwide, by Income Group.

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Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns

Franco Sassi PhD

OECD – Health Division

Rome, 14th November 2013


UN High-level Meeting on NCDs


Leading Risk Factors for HealthAttributable Mortality, 2004

Source: WHO, 2009


Deaths from NCDsWorldwide, by Income Group

Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008


Obesity: a Global Epidemic

  • In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas

  • Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US

  • Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China

% of adult population


The OECD/WHO CDP Model

Cancers

Stroke

Ischemic heart

disease


A Comprehensive & Affordable Prevention Package


What Can Prevention Achieve?


Prevention Keeps HealthyYears of Life Free of NCDs

Cardiovascular diseases

Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast)


An Affordable Prevention Package

1.2

0.4


Prevention is a Good InvestmentImpact on Health Expenditure


% Decrease Rrequiredin Fat Consumption


Scenario 1 Results


SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines


Scenario2 Results


Scenario2 Results


Scenario2 Results


Key Policy Implications

  • Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues

  • Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy

  • Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains

  • Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term


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