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Bulygina Olga

First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis Techniques to Support Risk Assessment 10 to 14 June 2013 WMO,Geneva Switzerland. Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis at RUSSIA. Bulygina Olga

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Bulygina Olga

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  1. First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis Techniques to Support Risk Assessment 10 to 14 June 2013 WMO,Geneva Switzerland Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis at RUSSIA Bulygina Olga All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information, Obninsk, Russia (bulygina@meteo.ru)

  2. According Government resolutions the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) have detect and predict for meteorological, hydrological and climate-related hazards. The Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters

  3. METEOROLOGICAL, HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS • monitoring • detecting • maintaining databases • analytical techniques Guidelines for Preparation of Country Documents for the First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis Techniques to Support Risk Assessment :“Please kindly prepare a document that describes practices and approaches in your country to monitoring, detecting, maintaining databases and analytical techniques (statistical and forecasting) for primary meteorological, hydrological and climate-related hazards.”

  4. Hazards events are detecting by network of hydrometeorological stations. Russian defined hazard’s criteria is in “List of natural hazards” On the territory of Russia, where there is a great variety of climate conditions, more than 30 hazards occur. To detect and predict these hazards the (Roshydromet) has conducted regular hydrometeorological observations for many years (in accordance with the approved programme and manuals). The phenomena with the intensity exceeding critical values for a given region or season are referred to as hazards. These phenomena are registered by hydrometeorolgical stations. Hydrometeorological stations just register hazards on the basis of the specified and approved criteria and do not take into account their consequences and impacts on economy and population. Data on hazards are collected and stored on the machine-readable media in the State Fund (National Database) of Environmental Data hosted by the Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre (RIHMI-WDC) Hazard Definitionand Detection

  5. Meteorological stations in Russia

  6. Meteorological stations 1627

  7. Additional information (satellite and other) have use to detect the hazards events State Research Center "Planeta" SRC "Planeta" is a leading organization in exploiting and development of national satellite Earth observation systems for hydrometeorological, oceanographic, heliogeophysical and environmental purpose and also in receiving and processing data from foreign satellites in cooperation with national hydrometeorological services and space agencies of more than 30 countries Social and economic damage are estimating by regional government commission . Information about hazards that led to economic losses are sending to different organizations and to RIHMI-WDC. Roshydromet (regional hydrometeorological departments and Hydrometcentre of Russia) prepares warnings for hydrometeorological hazards; Hazard Definitionand Detection

  8. Hazards databases • Data on hazards (without economical information) are include in the State Fund (National Database) of Environmental Data (RIHMI-WDC) • Since 1997 RIHMI-WDC has been developing and maintaining a specialized set of data on hazards that led to economic losses. Currently this set contains information on all the hazards and adverse weather occurrences that caused economic damage in the period of 1991-2012. (The early information is not reliable) • The main principle of developing and maintaining this data set is that it includes information on all the hazards and adverse weather occurrences that caused social and economic damage irrespective of values and characteristics of the related hydrometeorological parameters.

  9. Alexander Korshunov –Head of Department of Applied and System Research (RIHMI-WDC)korshunov@meteo.ru Hazards data base • Archival frequency- • Regular • Data archival standards- • Microsoft Accese • information is free • available

  10. Hazards data base • All hazardous events have parameters: • Date • Type (1 – strong wind, hurricane, squall, spout. dust storm; 2 – blizzard, heavy snowfall, a mix of snow and rain, slush build-up, glaze, glazed frost; 3 – heavy rain, long-lasting rain, shower, hail, thunderstorm; 4 – severe frost, freezing, strong heat, sharp temperature change; 5 – spring flood, rain flood, flooding, surge, ice jam; 6-avalanche, mudflow; 7 – atmospheric and soil drought, hot dry wind; 8 – fire hazard emergency; 9 – other) • Meteorological and hydrological characteristics • Location (WMO index of station, region..) • Damage

  11. Hazards Monitoring Roshydromet are preparing national monitoring products (monthly, seasonal and yearly) to assess the actual state of the climate. Information about hazards are include to these products. “ A REPORT ON CLIMATE FEATURES ON THE TERRITORY OF THE RUSSIANFEDERATION”(http://www.meteorf.ru ).

  12. Distribution of hazardous weather events that caused social and economic damage in the period 1991-2012 by years. Russia

  13. Distribution of hazardous events in the period of 1991-2010 by seasons(cold seasons: November and December of the previous year; January, February and March of the current year)

  14. Average monthly number of hazardous events, that cause economic damage, in the period of 1991-2009 compared with that in 2010

  15. Number of hazardous events (by types) in 2010 compared with the monthly average in the period 1991-2009 (1 – strong wind, hurricane, squall, spout. dust storm; 2 – blizzard, heavy snowfall, a mix of snow and rain, slush build-up, glaze, glazed frost; 3 – heavy rain, long-lasting rain, shower, hail, thunderstorm; 4 – severe frost, freezing, strong heat, sharp temperature change; 5 – spring flood, rain flood, flooding, surge, ice jam; 6-avalanche, mudflow; 7 – atmospheric and soil drought, hot dry wind; 8 – fire hazard emergency; 9 – other)

  16. Some results from climate research of extreme events, hazards

  17. Linear trend estimates in the time series of the number of days with icing at meteorological stations (days/decade) (indicated by color) and averaged (indicated by numerals) over quasi-homogeneous regions (%/decade) (1977-2012). Bulygina O.,Arzhanova N., Groisman, P. Ya., 2013.Icing conditions in the northern extratropics in changing climate. JpGU Meeting 2013

  18. a)Linear trend coefficient (days/10 years) in the time series of days with abnormally low air temperatures (minimum temperatures lower than the 5th percentile) in winter (December–February). Time period1971–2010. b)Linear trend coefficient (days/10 years) in the time series of days with abnormally high air temperatures (maximum temperatures higher than the 95th percentile) in summer (June–August). Time period 1971–2010. (Bulygina O.N., Razuvaev V.N.,Korshunova N.N., Groisman, P. Ya.,2007: Climate variations and changes in extreme climate events in Russia., Environ. Res. Lett. 2 N4 (October-December 2007)045020)

  19. DER, dangerous events for reindeer husbandry: ice crust above 5 mm during 10 consequent days over the “field” routes • Left. Regional trends (% per 10 years ) that are presented only for the regions where duringthe 1967-2009periodthey were statistically significant at the 0.05 or higher level. • Right. Annual variability of the percent of stations where the DER events were observed in the Atlantic Sector of the Russian Arctic. (O. Bulygina, P. Groisman, V. Razuvaev, and V. Radionov.2010. . Snow cover basal ice layer changes over Northern Eurasia since 1966. Environ. Res. Lett. 5 015004. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/015004)

  20. DEC, dangerous event for winter crops: ice crust above 20 mm over the “field” routes • Left. Regional trends (% per 10 years ) that are presented only for the regions where duringthe 1967-2009periodthey were statistically significant at the 0.05 or higher level. • Right. Annual variability of the percent of stations where the DEC events were observed in the southwest of European Russia.

  21. Linear trend coefficient (days/10 years; 5% significance level) in the time series of days with extreme (wind speed more than the 95th percentile)wind speed. O. Bulygina, V.Razuvaev and N.Korshunova, 2012.CHANGES IN THE WIND CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN EURASIA. AGU Meeting 2012

  22. Air temperature anomalies (deviations from 1961-1990 averages). Mean monthly air temperatures Daily (mean, maximum) air temperatures

  23. “HOT NIGHTS” Oktjabr’skij Gorodok Sochi Saint-Petersburg. For the first time since 1881 Tmin has exceeded 23.9 C (14, 16, 29 July 2010). Moscow. For the first time Tmin has exceeded 23.9 C (28 and 29 July, 4 August 2010). - Tmin > 23,9 °C in SUMMER 2010 - Tmin > 23,9 °C in SUMMER 2010 and Nday (with Tmin > 23,9 °C ) in 2010 > Nday on all period of observation

  24. THANK YOU!

  25. List of natural hazards (examples)

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