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Risk management in Software Projects. José Onofre Montesa Andrés Universidad Politécnica de Valencia Escuela Superior de Informática Aplicada 2003-2004. Índice . Failure and root causes. Risk Definition Formas en las que se afrontan las causas de las desviaciones

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risk management in software projects

Risk management in Software Projects

José Onofre Montesa Andrés

Universidad Politécnica de Valencia

Escuela Superior de Informática Aplicada

2003-2004

ndice
Índice
  • Failure and root causes.
  • Risk Definition
  • Formas en las que se afrontan las causas de las desviaciones
  • Elementos de la Gestión de Riesgos
    • Identificar los factores de Riesgo
    • Evaluar la probabilidad y el efecto
    • Desarrollo de estrategias para mitigar los riesgos
  • Monitorizar los factores de riesgo

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

failure and root causes
Failure and root causes.
  • Software projects fail if:
    • Software never runs.
    • Don’t accomplish same expected functions.
    • Software isn\'t delivered on time.
    • Higher cost than expected.
  • Reasons:
    • High level of complexity (communications, interrelation with other systems, etc..)
    • Uncertainty. It wasn’t clear the objective.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

risk definition fairley
Risk Definition (Fairley)
  • Risk is a potential problem.
  • Problem is a risk that has materialized.
  • By a problem, we mean an undesirable situation that will require time and resources to correct.
    • (may be uncorrectable).
  • A risk is characterized by:
    • The probability that occur (0<P<1)
    • A loss associated

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

risk factors fall into two categories
Risk factors fall into two categories
    • Generic risks, common to all software projects, then we tray to improve the organization to overcome this risks or we have a check list.
    • Project specific risks.
  • This are complementary points of view we must act on both.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

most common software risks 1 caper jones
Most Common Software Risks (1) (Caper Jones)
  • Ambiguous improvement targets.(4)
  • Creeping users requirements.(9)
  • Crowded office conditions.(10)
  • Excessive schedule pressure.(13)
  • Excessive time to market.(14)
  • Inaccurate cost estimating.(19)
  • Friction between:
    • Client and software contractors.(16)
    • Software management and senior executives.(17)

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

most common software risks 2 caper jones
Most Common Software Risks (2) (Caper Jones)
  • Inadequate compensation plans.(24)
  • Inadequate configuration control and project repositories.(25)
  • Inadequate Curricula (S.E., S.M.)(26, 27).
  • Inadequate package acquisition methods.(29)
  • Inadequate software policies and standars.(31)
  • Inadequate tolls and methods (project management, Quality assurance, software engineering, technical documentation…)(34-37)

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

most common software risks 3 caper jones
Most Common Software Risks (3) (Caper Jones)
  • Lack of reusable code, data, test, human interfaces.(41-47)
  • Lack of specialization (48).
  • Low user satisfaction(53).
  • Low productivity.(50)
  • High maintenance costs.(18)
  • Partial live cycle definitions.(57)
  • poor technology investments.
  • Silver bullet syndrome.(62)

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

specific risk causes
Specific risk causes.
  • “When a project is successful, it is not because there are no problems, but because the problems were overcome .”
  • We can act:
    • Reactive: we wait problems and then we act on them.
    • Proactive: We identify potential problems and act in anticipation

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

risk management elements
Risk management elements
  • Different techniques to work whit risk.
    • The spiral life cycle.
    • Check lists
    • Risk management.
  • This methods can work all together.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

risk management procedures
Risk management procedures
  • Identify risk factors
  • Asses risk probabilities and effects on the project
  • Develop strategies to mitigate identify risks
  • Monitoring Risk factors
  • Invoke a contingence plan.
  • Manage the crisis.
  • Recovery from a crisis.
          • Fairley, R. IEEE Software Mayo 1994

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

identify risk factors
Identify risk factors
  • You must visualize the project development and identify “wrong” things.
  • If you have a checklist with problems in other projects you work then revise that list.
    • “Who don’t know their past is commended to repeat”

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

slide13
You must difference cause (risk factors), problems and symptoms.
  • Whether you identify a situation as a risk or an opportunity depends on your point of view.
  • Is the glass half full or half empty?
    • Situations with high potential for failure often have the potential for high pay back.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

asses risk probabilities and effects on the project
Asses risk probabilities and effects on the project
  • Evaluate the probability of this problem.
  • Evaluate the effect the problem would have on the project desired outcome.
  • Classify risks with the Risk exposure, calculated as:
    • Probability * Effect
  • As a consecuence we will identify more important risks.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

evaluaci n de la probabilidad de que se de el problema
Evaluación de la probabilidad de que se de el problema.
  • Not all the problems have the same probability.
  • Some times evaluating the probability is something difficult, use
    • Similar cases .
    • Optimist, pessimist and more probable.
    • Remember the Murphy law:
      • “if something can go wrong, it will do”
  • We can use simulation tools.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

develop strategies to mitigate identify risks
Develop strategies to mitigate identify risks
  • Two types of strategies:
    • Action planning.
      • Addresses risks that can be mitigated by immediate response
    • Contingency planning.
      • We accept the risk and we plan and control the risk.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

action planning
Action planning
  • We minimize or vanish the risk.
  • We take action before the problem will materialize.
    • Example:
      • Problem: We can have problem using new tolls.
      • Action: We hire a experienced worker whit this tools

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

contingency planning
Contingency planning
  • We accept the risk and we prepare a plan and we will use this if the risk is materialized.
  • The actions to take are:
    • Identify variables to be control in order to detect that the problem is here.
    • Create an action plan to be used during the crisis, as a consequence of this problem.
    • Planning the crisis recovery.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

monitoring risk factors
Monitoring Risk factors
  • We observe identify symptoms, grouped.
  • We must quantify in a precise manner with objective, timely and accurate metrics.
  • We must have a clear control limits
  • We need a tradability between risk factors and risks.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

invoke a contingence plan
Invoke a contingence plan
  • When a quantitative risk indicator crosses a predetermined threshold.
  • Usually you can have different levels,
    • At first levels the operative level take action,
    • If can’t correct the situation then the contingency plan will start.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

manage the crisis
Manage the crisis
  • Despite a team’s best effort, the contingence plan may fail, in which case project enters crisis mode

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

recovery from a crisis
Recovery from a crisis
  • After a crisis certain actions are required:
    • Reward personnel who have worked in burnout mode,
    • Reevaluating cost and schedule in light of the drain on resources from managing the crisis.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

bibliograf a
Bibliografía
  • Fairley, R. “Risk Management for Software Development” en Software Engineering editado por Dorffman, M y Thayer, R.H., IEEE Computer Society, 1997
  • Fairley, R. “Risk Management for Software Projects”, IEEE Software, Mayo 1994
  • Jones, C. Assessment and Control of Software Risks. Yourdon Press, Prentice Hall, 1994.

GpiI-3C Risk management in Software Projects

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