High Productivity Computing: Predictions for the New HPC

1. Addison Snell, VP/GM, addison@TaborResearch.com High Productivity Computing:Predictions for the New HPC Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing October 2007

2. Tabor Communications Overview • 20 years of leadership in HPC publishing • HPCwire and GRIDtoday are globally recognized • Also known for event coverage, book publishing, annual People To Watch list, Editors’ Choice and Readers’ Choice Awards, HPC Classifieds • In a typical month … • 2 million unique visitors to web sites • 48,000 article downloads • Readers in 41 countries

3. Recent News for Tabor Communications • Debra Goldfarb named President, CEO • Formation of two new operating companies: • Tabor Marketing Services • Mike Bernhardt, VP/GM • Provides strategic marketing services for HPC • Tabor Research • Addison Snell, VP/GM • Emphasis on actionable market intelligence • Diane Lieberman, new Publisher for HPCwire

4. High Productivity Computing • Market revolutions require a fresh look at HPC • Expanding vendor contexts • More differentiation exists outside the server • 2nd tier vendors play an important role • HPC includes data management, system management, compilers, tools, middleware, … • Expanding user contexts • HPC is more accessible; new applications • Examples: Consumer manufacturing, online gaming, super-scalable business computing

5. Giving the HPC Community a Voice • Users and vendors register for premium content from Tabor Research web site • Ongoing polling through web, email, phone surveys • Tabor Research will recognize and reward those who consistently provide value by responding Tabor Research is giving the HPC community a cohesive voice Enabling our readers to become active participants in the future of HPC

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7. Quick Question: How Important Is Low Power Consumption? • Absolute requirement • Not an absolute requirement but worth paying a premium for • Not worth paying a premium but worth considering when price/performance is equal • Minor consideration at best • Not a factor 34% 23% 24% 6% 13% n = 180

8. Users from all sectors, verticals, and budget sizes invited to participate in Advisory Council • Users participate by regularly answering surveys (about three to four per quarter) • Two main surveys: HPC budget map, HPC census • In return, Council members receive: • Access to Tabor Research data and reports • Analyst inquiry time • Invitations to exclusive events

9. Grid Computing and HPC • Neither is a subset of the other: There are HPC grids, but not all grids are HPC, and not all HPC is grid • Within HPC, the emphasis of grid computing is typically efficient utilization of resources • Compute resources • Data resources • Visualization resources • There is a very pertinent link to ultra-scale business computing

10. Dynamics Driving the New HPC • Growth market, but … • A series of evolutions (SMP to cluster, Vectors to RISC to x86, HPC-specific to leveraged) has steadily increased the gap between performance and productivity • Industrial users in particular are looking for ROI in HPC • Multi-core drives another wedge into this gap

11. Here ^ Multi-Core Is Coming • This isn’t a “prediction” – it is a market transition • Multi-core is not a benefit in itself for HPC, although many users have codes that will use up to four cores productively • Need to convey the benefits of additional cores in terms of productivity, not performance

12. Companies providing software or middleware pieces that drive efficiency may be acquired. Impact of Multi-Core #1 • New layer of complexity in programming • Parallelism at the socket level • Need new solutions for scheduler, workload manager, … • Current MPI model (and other tools) will not provide efficient use of additional cores

13. GPGPUs will emerge as a dominant accelerator model for the lower end of the market Impact of Multi-Core #2 • Users will seek ways to alleviate the memory burden on the core • For some compute-intensive applications accelerators will provide a needed boost • Challenge for accelerators: Programming

14. Data management solutions become better understood, more highly valued Impact of Multi-Core #3 • Definition of a supercomputer: A tool for turning a compute-bound problem into an I/O-bound problem • Meanwhile, data explosion continues • Confusing alphabet soup of solutions (RAID, XVM, HSM, any letter or two followed by FS)

15. Get ready, Linux fans: Microsoft makes a move in HPC Impact of Multi-Core #4 • All PC programmers are now addressing the challenge of programming for multi-core • Tools migrate from broad markets to HPC • Influence with ISVs is important • Meanwhile, Linux is fragmenting

16. The New HPC • In production markets, efficiency and productivity matter • HPC continues to grow among both incumbent and new users • Non-traditional application areas represent the new face of HPC Changes in the industry require a fresh, demand-side look at actionable market intelligence

17. Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing

18. Introducing Tabor Research • Covering the complete High Productivity Computing market space • Combining supply-side (vendor) and demand-side (user) data for comprehensive market view • Activating readers of HPCwire and GRIDtoday to enable the voice of the HPC user Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing

19. Tabor Research Products • InterSect360™ market advisory service • Subscription-based service with quarterly reports • User and vendor data in three modules: Buyer Views, Supplier Views, Technology Views • Comprehensive Research Studies • Deep dive research in hot-topic areas • Provide ROI for market research investment • Client-specific services: Strategic consulting, technology assessments, perception audits, white papers, TAM analysis, custom market intelligence

20. InterSect360™ Market Advisory Service Buyer Views • Budgets, spending map • Segmentation by class of user, vertical market • Trend forecasting and analysis Supplier Views • Revenue, units, ASP • Segmentation by system class, vertical, geo • Market sizing, shares, and forecasts Technology Views • Forecasts technology trends using user and vendor data • Examples: Multi-core, InfiniBand, Windows adoption

21. InterSect360™ – Buyer Views • Data sources: End-user surveys, case studies, interviews, discussions • Segmentations: Site class, vertical industry, others • Report types: Spending profiles, TAM estimates, installed system profiles • Forecasts and trends: Budget distribution forecast, TAM forecast, others

22. InterSect360™ – Technology Views • Data sources: Technology provider surveys, product vendor surveys, product documentation • Segmentations: System architecture, processor type, processor architecture, interconnect type, node types, others • Report tables: Processor volume, interconnect volume, market sizing and shares by technology segments, others • Forecasts: Processor type shares, interconnect shares, system architecture directions, others

23. InterSect360™ – Supplier Views • Data sources: Vendor surveys, financial information, discussions with buyers and competitors • Segmentations: System class, vertical, geography, scaling class, others • Report tables: Market sizing by revenue, shipments, ASP and shares by product segments and vendor • Forecasts: Market sizing by revenue, shipments, and ASP

24. Tabor Research Leadership • Debra Goldfarb, President and CEO • 20-year industry advisor, previously worked at IBM; led HPC team at IDC • Emphasizing High Productivity Computing • Addison Snell, VP/GM • 10 years HPC experience at SGI, IDC • Vision: Actionable market research in HPC • Dr. Christopher Willard, Sr. Research Consultant • 25 years as HPC market intelligence specialist • Leads InterSect360™ market advisory service