An observation stragegy over the atlantic
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An observation stragegy over the Atlantic. Presentation to SOT meeting Goa, India 26 Feb 2002 By François Gérard, Météo-France. European Meteorological Services. Organisations. Networking². ECMWF (Forecast). EUMETSAT (Space Observation). ECOMET (Data and products Exchange).

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An observation stragegy over the Atlantic

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An observation stragegy over the atlantic

An observation stragegy over the Atlantic

Presentation to SOT meeting

Goa, India 26 Feb 2002

ByFrançois Gérard, Météo-France

SOT - Goa - 2002


European co operations in meteorology

European Meteorological Services

Organisations

Networking²

ECMWF

(Forecast)

EUMETSAT

(Space

Observation)

ECOMET

(Data and

products

Exchange)

EUMETNET

EUCOS

(Ground basedobservation)

EGOS

(Oceanobservation)

WMO framework (Reqs, guidelines, etc)

European Co-operations in Meteorology

SOT - Goa - 2002


What is eucos

What is EUCOS?

  • An observing system designed for the support of short-term GNWP (24-72h) over Europe ;

  • An evolutive system ;

    • Technical evolutions in ground based observation techniques ;

    • Expected space segment evolutions ;

    • Evolving requirements of GNWP

  • A mechanism for co-operative definition, implementation and operation of that observing system;

  • An implementation Programme (1999-2001) having led to the above through

    • observing system experiments and sensitivity studies,

    • cost benefit assessments,

SOT - Goa - 2002


Present o ceanic undersampling

26-12

2nd Storm

26-06

27-12

28-12

25-18

24

1st Storm

Present oceanic undersampling

SOT - Goa - 2002


Eucos extension over sensitive areas

TO

EUCOS extension over sensitive areas

  • HYPOTHESIS:

    • Addition of profileor level data in sensitive areas may improve efficiency of the system.

  • TOOLS:

    • Climatology of sensitive areas

    • Pilot projects (ASAP)

    • Ceiling : 5 M€/yr

EUCOS-0.5

Extension

with new profile and level data

in areas sensitive forweather predictionover Europe

Present system

SOT - Goa - 2002


Results for the north

Winter sensitivity maxima

confirmed

Maximum sensitivity layer :

700 – 400 hPa

WINTER, North

SUMMER, North

… Results for the North

Europeis alsoasensitive

Area !!

Eastward shift of maximum sensitivity patterns in summer

Towards an area also identified by case studies

SOT - Goa - 2002


Guidelines for eucos over the ocean

Guidelines for EUCOS over the Ocean

  • Increase significantly the number of profiles over the identified sensitive areas by :

    • Activating additional ASAP and AMDAR units :

      • From 3000 to 9000 TEMPSHIP messages….

      • Approx 5 000 000 AMDAR messages…

    • Developing of new observation strategies for these systems ;

  • Surface data (buoys, ships) to be maintained ;

  • Assess the operational feasibility of targeted observation :

    • Robotic aircraft demonstration (Aerosonde),

    • Stratospheric balloons;

SOT - Goa - 2002


Variable operation mode

Variable operation mode

MODE 2

MODE 2

MODE 3

MODE 3

MODE 1

EUCOS Programme


Results of the experiment

Results of the experiment

SOT - Goa - 2002


Conclusion of the experiment

Conclusion of the experiment

  • Implementing-location dependent operations is feasible and recommended;

  • The E-ASAP ships are implementing this observation strategy;

  • Next steps :

    • Test a time dependent operations using targeting tools,

    • An experiment is planned under EUCOS for end 2002 or beginning of 2003

SOT - Goa - 2002


Surface observation today

Surface observation today

Need to co-ordinate and target surface observation

SOT - Goa - 2002


Surface pressure sensitivity north

Surface Pressure sensitivity North

SUMMER

WINTER

SOT - Goa - 2002


Eucos requirements

EUCOS requirements…

  • From NWP requirements

    • The signal of surface pressure is small on the average, but is likely to increase according to developments in data assimilation and physics modelling

  • Impact of data from buoys (and ships) on synoptic forecast is obvious on some cases

  • Results call for developing targeted observation from buoys :

    • Winter / Summer deployment ;

    • On request Activation / Desactivation ;

  • Targeted observation strategies to be developed

SOT - Goa - 2002


Conclusions

CONCLUSIONS

  • Sensitivity and impact studies enable to identify where to increase the observation effort over the Atlantic;

  • Implementing location-dependent observation from ships is feasible;

  • Time-sependent targeting has still to be demonstrated :

    • EUCOS studies programme;

    • THORPEX offers a framework;

  • Co-operation increases cost-efficiency of obs systems

SOT - Goa - 2002


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