The Longest Sustained Labor Slump since the Great Depression Is
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The Longest Sustained Labor Slump since the Great Depression Is Taking a Toll on Working Families Lee Price Economic Policy Institute March 10, 2004 http://www.epinet.org. First time since 1939 to go 35 months without recovering all lost job – jobs still down 1.8%

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The Longest Sustained Labor Slump since the Great Depression IsTaking a Toll on Working Families

Lee Price

Economic Policy Institute

March 10, 2004

http://www.epinet.org


Distress for those without jobs

First time since 1939 to go 35 months without recovering all lost job – jobs still down 1.8%

Actual “job gap” exceeds 7 million jobs

2.4 mn. jobs lost since March 2001

4.7 mn. jobs needed for 1.2% population growth

5.6% unemployment rate understates joblessness

Job shortage has caused unprecedented withdrawal from labor force

7.4% unemployment rate with inclusion of “missing labor force” of 2.8 million people

Distress for those without jobs


Distress for those with jobs

Slowing pay gains – living standards now in decline lost job – jobs still down 1.8%

1.6% gain in last year slowest in 40 years

Slower than 1.9% inflation

Even lower gains for middle- and lower-paid

Working faster also contributes to productivity gains

Management says ‘We have to get the same work done with fewer people’ after firing or attrition

Acknowledged by both Chairman Greenspan and President’s CEA

Distress for those with jobs


How could policy have done better

Better fiscal priorities would deliver more “bang for the buck”

from deficit increases

focus tax relief on low and middle income people

because they spend money faster

more timely and extensive state fiscal relief

accelerate federal spending on infrastructure

more generous and sustained UI extensions

Rein in deficits to stabilize future debt/GDP

Hike key Asian exchange rates to boost manufacturing

How could policy have done better?


1939 2000 jobs always fully recovered by 31 st month after onset of recession
1939-2000: Jobs always fully recovered buck”by 31st month after onset of recession


Since 1939 jobs always up by 35 th month after start of recession
Since 1939, jobs always up buck”by 35th month after start of recession


Increased joblessness rise in official unemployment missing labor force
Increased joblessness = rise in official unemployment + “missing labor force”

"Missing“ Labor Force Effect

Official

Unemployment

Rate

Percent of Labor Force

March 2001

February 2004



Rise in long term unemployment
Rise in long term unemployment Black and Hispanic workers


Real weekly wages fell last year for middle and lower wage workers
Real weekly wages fell last year Black and Hispanic workers for middle and lower wage workers


Jpmorgan daily economic briefing march 5 2004 11 00 am est

“A profit-friendly US labor market report Black and Hispanic workers

“There is no getting away from the fact that today’s US labor market report was weak….

“The report looks good for profits. We’d thought that the labor share of national income was in the process of bottoming out, but whether we’re talking outsourcing or just old-style downsizing, the effort by US business to pare costs (and extract productivity gains in services) continues apace.”

JPMorgan “Daily Economic Briefing”March 5, 2004, 11:00 am EST


Profits normally do better than labor compensation at this stage
Profits normally do better than Black and Hispanic workerslabor compensation at this stage …



President Bush sold 2003 tax cuts so poorlywith promise of 306,000 jobs a month, but only 294,000 jobs added in 8 months


Administration keeps forecasting strong job growth just around the corner
Administration keeps forecasting strong so poorlyjob growth just around the corner

Chart from Paul Krugman column, NY Times, March 8, 2004


Many manufacturing jobs could be restored with effective trade and exchange rate policies

Strong U.S. demand for manufactured goods so poorly

U.S. production of manufactured goods has fallen to 74% of demand for manufactured goods.

The U.S. trade deficit (and its correction) is largely driven by the deficit in manufacturing.

Correcting the $500+ bn. trade deficit

requires a major exchange rate adjustment and

would generate millions of manufacturing jobs.

Many manufacturing jobs could be restoredwith effective trade and exchange rate policies


Offshoring of u s white collar work presents whole new challenge

2 important new developments are driving increased imports of white collar work:

Revolutions in IT and telecom allow work shipped by electrons to be done anywhere.

Nations with millions of underemployed but well-educated people are rapidly joining the world market.

Offshoring of U.S. white collar work presents whole new challenge


Problem is bad policy not external events

9/11 of white collar work:: after short term shock, has boosted overall demand through more security spending

Corporate accounting: set-backs to stock market did not hamper investment because credit available and cheap and cash flow strong

Iraq war: defense spending has also provided large boost to demand (Saddam statue fell 11 months ago)

Problem is bad policy, not external events


Conclusion

Employers are unlikely to boost their hiring substantially until their confidence in strong medium term economic growth is restored.

Fiscal policy should boost jobs now but rein in future deficits to prevent explosive debt.

To revive manufacturing and restore external balance, Asian exchange rates must go up.

Conclusion


Additional until their confidence in strong medium term economic growth is restored.

Slides

for

Discussion


Jobs must grow not just recover to keep pace with working age population

The population is growing 1.2% annually. until their confidence in strong medium term economic growth is restored.

If jobs had grown at that pace since March 2001, we would be adding 137,000 jobs a month.

It’s better to add jobs than lose them, but the labor market weakens every month that fewer than 137,000 new jobs are created.

Jobs must grow, not just recover, to keep pace with working age population


Job shortfall 2 4 mn lost jobs 4 7 mn jobs not created
Job shortfall = 2.4 mn. lost jobs until their confidence in strong medium term economic growth is restored.+ 4.7 mn. jobs not created


Share of the population in the labor force until their confidence in strong medium term economic growth is restored.usually higher 35 months after start of recession,not so this time


Slowdown in wage and salary pay 4 gains in 2000 2 1 2 in 2003
Slowdown in wage and salary pay: until their confidence in strong medium term economic growth is restored.4% gains in 2000, 2-1/2% in 2003


Aggregate wage salary income still down unlike past slumps
Aggregate wage & salary income still down, unlike past slumps

34 Month Change in AggregateReal Wage and Salary Income



And household spending closely tracks disposable income
… and household spending income stagnates … closely tracks disposable income.


Productivity is going up as people work faster not just as technology improves

Productivity is going up as people work faster, not just as technology improves

“One hypothesis is that some of the increase represents a temporary rise in the level of productivity reflecting a view that an unusual amount of caution is leading businesses to press workers and facilities to a greater degree than can be sustained over the longer haul.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan, November 6, 2003

“Another possibility is that firms somehow induced extra work effort for a time because they were hesitant to hire new workers until they were more confident that increases in final demand would persist.”

Economic Report of the President 2004, page 47


Bush deficit increases provided low bang for the buck stimulus

Change in GDP per $ of deficit change: technology improves

Federal UI benefits 1.73

Accelerate 10% bracket 1.34

Child credit rebate 1.04

Marriage penalty relief 0.74

Accelerate tax rate reductions 0.59

Dividend tax reduction 0.09

Source: Mark Zandi, Regional Financial Review, February 2003

Bush deficit increases provided low “bang for the buck” stimulus


President should be held accountable for job forecasts and outcomes

Congress created the President’s Council of Economic Advisers (and JEC) in the Employment Act of 1946 during a job slump caused by war demobilization.

The first statutory requirement of the Economic Report of the President is “setting forth the current and foreseeable trends in employment.” The report is also required to provide policy recommendations for achieving full employment.

President should be held accountable for job forecasts and outcomes


Deficits raised indefinitely not just for short term stimulus
Deficits raised indefinitely, Advisers (and JEC) in the Employment Act of 1946 during a job slump caused by war demobilization.not just for short-term stimulus


Bush fiscal policy would generate rapid growth in debt to gdp ratio
Bush fiscal policy would generate Advisers (and JEC) in the Employment Act of 1946 during a job slump caused by war demobilization.rapid growth in debt to GDP ratio



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