Option c regression analysis 5 th december 2012
Download
1 / 8

NDM Data Sample Analysis: Final Results (2) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 77 Views
  • Uploaded on

Option C: Regression Analysis 5 th December 2012. NDM Data Sample Analysis: Final Results (2). Contents. In-Sample Results as per previous presentation i.e., Winter/Summer Modelling on 2008/2009 Data AQ-Corrected Out-of-Sample Model fit using 2009/2010 data Conclusion.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' NDM Data Sample Analysis: Final Results (2)' - norina


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Option c regression analysis 5 th december 2012

Option C: Regression Analysis

5th December 2012

NDM Data Sample Analysis: Final Results (2)


Contents
Contents

  • In-Sample Results as per previous presentation i.e., Winter/Summer Modelling on 2008/2009 Data

  • AQ-Corrected Out-of-Sample Model fit using 2009/2010 data

  • Conclusion


2009 2010 gas year

OUT-OF-SAMPLE RESULTS

2009/2010 Gas year






Conclusion
Conclusion

  • Out-of-Sample data fit for Oct-09 to Mar-10 only as significant level shift (i.e., 30%+) observed. This is could be because of Regression coefficients needing to be re-estimated.

  • Out-of-sample accuracy results poor. This could be because of

    • the number of meters changing year on year

    • Lack of normalisation by AQ prior to modelling

    • Significant behavioural change not captured by analysis

    • AQ re-base issue


ad