32 nd raiv hurricane committee bermuda country report
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32 nd RAIV Hurricane Committee Bermuda Country Report. Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service. 8 March 2010 Fairmont Hamilton Princess. Outer rain bands. 240nm. 225nm. 120nm. 90nm. Bill 2009. Fabian 2003. Forecast accuracy. CPA: 166m West 12 am Saturday (Midnight).

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32 nd RAIV Hurricane Committee Bermuda Country Report

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32 nd raiv hurricane committee bermuda country report

32nd RAIV Hurricane CommitteeBermuda Country Report

Dr. Mark Guishard

Director,

Bermuda Weather Service

8 March 2010

Fairmont Hamilton Princess


32 nd raiv hurricane committee bermuda country report

Outer rain bands

240nm

225nm

120nm

90nm


32 nd raiv hurricane committee bermuda country report

Bill 2009

Fabian 2003


Forecast accuracy

Forecast accuracy

CPA: 166m West 12 am Saturday

(Midnight)


32 nd raiv hurricane committee bermuda country report

Up to 70% chance of 34 knots (Tropical-storm force winds) in the next 5 days


Hurricane bill advisory 25 issued 12 noon fri aug 21 2009

HURRICANE BILL is a threat to Bermuda.

Hurricane Watch in effect

Tropical Storm Warning in effect

Current Position: 27.6N 66.3W approx. 300 nm S of Bermuda

Recent Movement: NW or 325 degrees at 16 kt

Max Sustained Winds: 100kt gusts 120kt

Closest point of approach to Bermuda within 72 hrs:

Date: 4 am Sat, Aug 22, 2009. Distance: 182 nm to the WSW as a Cat 3

HURRICANE BILL - Advisory #25Issued: 12 noon Fri, Aug 21, 2009


Noaa wave buoy measurements

NOAA Wave buoy measurements

27.500 N 63.000 W – 306 nm SSE

1450 GMT:

Wind Direction: SEE (150 deg)

Wind Speed : 31.1 kts

Wind Gust : 38.9 kts

Wave Height : 24.3 ft (13.5 ft 24 hrs ago)

Dominant Wave Period : 12 sec

Bermuda

Bill


32 nd raiv hurricane committee bermuda country report

0.55 inches of rain recorded


10 minute mean winds

53 Gust 84 knots

Commissioner’s Point

10-minute mean winds

Tropical Storm Force Winds Duration: ~12 hours 

Max 10-minute winds at Airport:110° 40 GUSTS 52 KTS. 

Total rainfall recorded August 21st/22nd:0.55 inches.


Lessons from bill

Lessons from Bill

  • Hurricane Watch/Warning based on sea state as opposed to wind strength – BWS in-house discussion

  • Lack of Emergency Alert System – SMS text message alerts from cell phone provider took too long

  • Emphasis on the local conditions as opposed to the center of the Tropical System – need to de-emphasize “but it is far away!”

  • Grateful to US NOAA for the buoys to the SSE & West – request they be in service for upcoming 2010 Season

  • Causeway closures need to include a component of sea state

  • Wave & surge forecasting lacking – Bathymetry, buoy network, tide gauges needed


Any questions

Any Questions?

Dr. Mark Guishard

Director,

Bermuda Weather Service

8 March 2010

Fairmont Hamilton Princess


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