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Timothy A. Supinie, Youngsun Jung, and Ming Xue EnKF Workshop 20 May 2014

Impacts of VORTEX2 Observations on Analyses and Forecasts of the 5 June 2009 Goshen County, WY Supercell. Timothy A. Supinie, Youngsun Jung, and Ming Xue EnKF Workshop 20 May 2014. Motivation. Warn-on-Forecast project ( Stensrud et al. 2009)

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Timothy A. Supinie, Youngsun Jung, and Ming Xue EnKF Workshop 20 May 2014

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  1. Impacts of VORTEX2 Observations on Analyses and Forecasts of the 5 June 2009 Goshen County, WY Supercell Timothy A. Supinie, Youngsun Jung, and Ming Xue EnKF Workshop 20 May 2014

  2. Motivation • Warn-on-Forecast project (Stensrud et al. 2009) • Issue tornado warnings based on forecasts, not detection • How well can we currently forecast supercells • With routine observations? • With special (VORTEX2) observations?

  3. VORTEX2 Project • Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes EXperiment (2009-2010) • Mobile radars, mobile mesonets, disdrometers, photogrammetry • Increase conceptual understanding of supercells • Goshen County supercell one of four tornado cases from 2009 • Only “Strongly Tornadic” case

  4. Observations Used • Routine: • WSR-88D radars • Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) • Wind Profilers • VORTEX2: • MWR-05XP X-band radar • NSSL Mobile Mesonets • TTU Sticknet • Mobile Soundings

  5. Experiment Setup • ARPS v5.3 • EnSRF • 40 Ensemble Members • Two domains • Inner (1 km grid spacing) • Outer (3 km grid spacing) • Member-by-member BC 3 km 1 km

  6. Selected Configuration Settings

  7. Experiments Performed • CTRL: All Routine and V2 Observations • NO_MM: Deny Mobile Mesonet • NO_MWR: Deny Mobile Radar (MWR-05XP) • NO_SND: Deny Soundings • NO_MM_MWR • NO_V2

  8. Reflectivity Loop

  9. Observation-Space Statistics

  10. Impact of Mobile Sounding Data 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

  11. Impact of Mobile Sounding Data 2140 UTC

  12. Impact of Mobile Mesonet Data 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

  13. Impact of Mobile Mesonet Data

  14. Impact of Mobile Mesonet Data MM Car #2 (P2) u v -5.5 -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 3.0 4.5 5.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.0 5.5

  15. Impact of Mobile Radar Data 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

  16. Impact of Mobile Radar Data 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

  17. Conclusions • Mobile sounding obs have a positive impact on a 1-hour forecast • Caveat: No routine sounding observations • Mobile mesonetobs have a negative impact on a 1-hour forecast • Unrepresentative wind observations • Mobile radar data has a positive impact on a 1-hour forecast when the analysis is suboptimal • Little effect otherwise

  18. Impact of Mobile Mesonet Data 10.0 15.0 17.5 27.5 30.0 12.5 25.0 20.0 22.5 7.5

  19. Conventional Data Assimilation Parameters

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