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MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean. WMO World Weather Research Programme. MEDEX research proposal (phase 1). Agustí Jansà (*), INM, Spain Pinhas Alpert, TAU, Israel Philippe Arbogast, Météo-France

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MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

MEDEX research proposal (phase 1)

Agustí Jansà (*), INM, Spain

Pinhas Alpert, TAU, Israel

Philippe Arbogast, Météo-France

Andrea Buzzi, ISAO, CNR, Italy

James Doyle, NRL, USA

Klaus P. Hoinka, DLR, Germany

Vassiliki Kotroni, NOA, Greece

Climent Ramis, UIB, Spain

Evelyne Richard, LA, France

Antonio Speranza, DSTN, Italy

And Members of MEDEX Advisory Group

(*) [email protected]


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

General objective of MEDEX:

The improvement of knowledge and forecasting of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean area

Specific objectives (MEDEX phase 1, 2001-2004):

(a)  To implement a dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean, to know the types of cyclonic structures that appears related to high impact weather events, if any. This is a necessary step to evaluate the potential impact of the improvement of the forecasting of cyclones on the prediction of the high impact weather itself. It is also necessary to know how representative is the work done on the base of a selection of particular cases.

(b)   In order to develop/test physical and dynamical hypotheses to form the basis of improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones: determining and ranking the multiple geographical and meteorological factors that are acting in the generation and evolution of the different types of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean.

(c)   The identification of sensitive areas where better initial conditions may likely lead to improved forecasts. Closely connected with the former objective is an assessment of the impact of additional observations in sensitive areas.

Based on systematic data, covering every day along a period

Based on selected cases


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Priority tasks for MEDEX phase 1

(according the WWRP/SSC Resolution about MEDEX, Sep. 2000)

  • a.    Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS, and to start concentrating these data in a MEDEX database.

  • b.    Identify a set of cases where high impact weather was poorly forecast and conduct co-ordinate, in-depth case studies that include considerations of forecast skill and societal impacts associated with both the event and the poor forecasts.

  • c.    Conduct NWP studies to identify sensitive areas where the addition of observations would most likely lead to improved forecasts and their related benefits.

  • d.    Conduct research to identify physical and dynamical hypotheses that might form the basis of developing improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones.


2001-1 High Impact Weather in the Mediterraneanst S

2001-2nd S

2002-1st S

2002-2nd S

2003-1st S

2003-2nd S

2004-1st S

2004-2nd S

Selection of cases 1995-2000

Updating selection of cases (2001-2003)

Establishment of the MEDEX database

Collection of ordinary and additional data in the database

Western Mediterranean cyclone database 1995-2002

Eastern Mediterranean cyclone database 1995-2002

Calendar of high impact weather events 1995-2002

Dynamic climatology of cyclones vs. high impact weather 1995-2002

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Identification of sensitive areas for selected cases

MEDEX Meeting 2001

MEDEX Meeting 2002

MEDEX Meeting 2003

MEDEX Meeting 2004

Final report for MEDEX phase 1

Planning a possible second phase for MEDEX

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

According the specific objectives and the priority tasks,a Science Plan or Full Proposal for MEDEX phase 1 has been prepared, including a feasible schedule for the main activities

Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

  • Specific objective 1

  • Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean

  • Brief description:

  • A systematic exploration of all the events of heavy rain or strong wind, above pre-defined thresholds, looking for identification and description of near cyclones potentially related to the event.

  • Statistical results, stratified by geographical areas, including:

    • Frequency of presence of cyclones related to high impact weather

    • Location of cyclones related to high impact weather

    • Typologies of cyclones related to high impact weather

  • Motivation:

  • This is a necessary step to evaluate the potential impact of the improvement of the forecasting of cyclones on the prediction of the high impact weather itself.

  • It is also necessary to know how representative is the work done on the base of a selection of particular cases.


12 January 1997 case-study High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean(Kotroni & Lagouvardos)

Low

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

  • Specific objective 1

  • Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean (cont.)

  • Science basis:

  • Hypothesis:

    • Heavy rain: The close presence of a surface cyclone provides the warm and wet inflow which is necessary for sustaining heavy rain. This hypothesis needs to be verified and/or quantified.

    • Strong wind: Intense surface cyclone implies strong surface wind.

  • Present knowledge (concerning heavy rain):

    • Many case studies of heavy rain show the close presence of a cyclone, but its role is not always analysed


CONTROL High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

SIMULATION

DYNAMICAL CONTROL of PRECIP

SIMULATION WITHOUT UPPER PV ANAOMALIES

(Romero, Ramis & Alonso)

MESOSCALE FORECAST LLJ AND MOIST TONGUE

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

  • Specific objective 1

  • Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean (cont.)

  • Science basis (cont.):

    • Few case studies specify how the location and intensity of the surface cyclone modulates the intensity and location of the heavy rain

  • Statistical studies are only preliminary and referred to parts of the Western Mediterranean, where in 90% of around 900 events of heavy rain (>60 mm/day) there is a surface cyclone in the vicinity, mostly located according the aforementioned hypothesis.

  • The aim now is generalising the preliminary statistical results and specifying the kind of cyclones which are related with heavy rain


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

  • Specific objective 1

  • Dynamic climatology of the cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean (cont.)

  • Methodology:

    • Calendar of events of heavy rain and/or strong wind over-passing pre-defined thresholds. Provided by participating institutions. Collected in the MEDEX Data Base.

    • Data Base of cyclones. Objective detection and description, on the base of objective analyses. Data collected in the MEDEX Data Base.

    • Cross-referencing the calendar of events and the data base of cyclones to obtain Statistical results, stratified by geographical areas, including:

      • Frequency of presence of cyclones related to high impact weather

      • Location of cyclones related to high impact weather

      • Typologies of cyclones related to high impact weather

Data requirements:

(summarised at the end of this presentation)


Data base of cyclones: High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

The methodology already available permits the objective and automatic detection and description of cyclones.

For example:

Detection

Tracking

Domain: zero vorticity line


Vertical extension and tilting High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean


Vertical profile of radius High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

Vertical profile of circulation: A x ς

Vertical thermal profile: ΔT

Vertical profile of relative humidity


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 2

Diagnostic studies and sensitive experiments (selected cases)

Develop/test physical and dynamical hypotheses to form the basis of improved forecast techniques for Mediterranean cyclones

  • Investigate the physical role (in the formation and evolution of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean) and model representation /assimilation of:

  • orography

  • surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat

  • latent heat release

  • upper level potential vorticity

  • low level jets

Sensitivity studies based on numerical experimentation on selected cases are recommended to investigate the role of the above 'factors' in different situations


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 2

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Selection of cases 1995-2000

(This work is a necessary step for Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors, as well as for Identification of sensitive areas).

Present state: almost finished.

  • The point of departure has been a Questionnaire submitted to the institutions that are participating in MEDEX.

    • Selection criteria:

  • High impact weather (mainly precipitation and wind) associated withcyclones affecting the Mediterranean area

  • Poor forecast skill

  • Adverse societal impact and possible mitigation depending on forecast skill

  • Sensitivity to initial condition and meteorological model used

  • Data base accessible (meteorological non GTS data, documentation on adverse weather impact and losses)

  • Events affecting more than one country (to favour interactions)

  • Events associated with different cyclone types and representative of all the Mediterranean subregions


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 2

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Selection of cases 1995-2000

  • More then 80 events were suggested (17 institutions of 11 countries).

  • 27 among them constitute the present pre-selection.

  • The pre-selection has been made according the following criteria:

  • Events affecting two or more contiguous countries.

  • Severe impact weather events (affecting one country only).

  • Additional events to ensure some degree of geographical 'balance'.

NOTE: Information about societal impacts, degree of success of numerical forecasts and alerts is not always readily available, but a distinct progress was made in two iterations.


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Geographical cover of selected events


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 2

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Selection of cases 1995-2000: emerged Forecasting problems:

  • Forecast often difficult but skill gradually improving in time

  • Heavy precipitation (and consequences, mainly floods and landslides, also snow) most important, but also strong winds (damages, navigation, storm surges…)

  • Most of benefits from meteorological models (especially LAM's):, ECMWF, U.K.M.O., DWD (Europa, Lokall M.), ARPEGE, ALADIN, BOLAM, ETA, HIRLAM, LAMBO, MASS, MM5, RAMS...)

  • Identification of problemslimiting forecast skill.


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 2

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Case study by Delitala et al. (SAR - Sardinia)

(impact of high res. forecast of precip., also ensemble fc.)

BOLAM

ECMWF

13/11/1999 00Z - ECMWF analysis


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 2

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Case study by Romero et al. (UIB, Palma de M.)

applying piecewise PV inversion technique

PLINIUS CONFERENCE ON MEDITERRANEAN STORMS

Two rotating upper-level positive PV anomalies

Strong low-tropospheric warm advection

Track, shape and intensity of the surface cycloneand the

corresponding rainfall pattern are very sensitive to the

embedded upper-level PV anomalies


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 2

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Example of MEDEX-related activities at the National Observatory of Athens (Kotroni, Lagouvardos)

14-17 January 1995 multi-model case-study


Accumulated precipitation exceeded 700 mm 96 hrs and 550 mm 48 hrs 14 15 oct 2000

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 2

Diagnosis studies and sensitive experiments concerning factors (selected cases)

Severe flood event of NW Italy, 13-16 Oct. 2000:

example of hydrological-meteorological model coupling (ISAO Bologna, Univ. of Genova, Univ. of Brescia)

Observed and hindcasted runoff at Toce Candoglia, using the DIMOSOP hydrological model, based on BOLAM forecasts for the period 2000-10-13 to 200-10-17

Accumulated precipitation exceeded 700 mm/96 hrs and 550 mm/48 hrs (14-15 Oct. 2000)


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Specific objective 3

Identification of sensitive areas for selected cases

  • The objective is to identify areas where better initial conditions may lead to improved forecast ofevents of high impact weather connected with cyclones.

  • The MEDEX project favours the case study approach on regional scale.

  • The computation of sensitivities requires adjoint model code.

  • In the case of the Mediterranean area, it is expected that diabatic processes will need to be included in the adjoint calculations.

  • Preliminary to OSSE experiments and to identification of observational needs.


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

The EUCOS study on Climatology of Sensitive Areas (Marseille & Bouttier, 2000) give us an idea about were are the most sensitive areas for Southern Europe:


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

A particular day example of sensitive area (from ECMWF):


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Horizontal aspects

  • After the presentation of the specific objectives of MEDEX, we move to some horizontal and practical aspects of the development of the project:

  • The data requirements and management

  • Societal benefits and impact assessment

  • The scientific management of the project.

  • Financing problems.


MEDEX objective High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

Type of data

Area

Details

Dynamical climatology

Rainfall and wind

Inner Mediterranean

All peak values that overpass defined thresholds, since 1995.

Analysed fields

Inner Mediterranean (at least)

4 daily at standard levels, al least since 1995.

Sensitivity to factors (validation)

Rainfall and wind

Inner Mediterranean

All data in the affected area for selected events only.

Radar and other non-conventional

Inner Mediterranean

All data in the affected area for selected events only.

Impact of observations

Upper air data

Outer Mediterranean (Eastern Atlantic incl.)

All data in sensitive areas for selected events only.

Surface data

Outer Mediterranean (mainly inner area)

All data in sensitive areas for selected events only.

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

The data requirements and management :

Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness of data presently not available on the GTS

Establishment of the MEDEX database

  • Steps:

  • Definition of data requirements (made, preliminarily)

  • Identification of available data (made, preliminarily)

  • Implementation of the MEDEX database (under study the feasibility of implementation of the database in INM-Spain)

  • Definition of data requirements (made, preliminarily)


Inner and outer Mediterranean area High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean


Institution High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

Rain. num.

Wind num.

Radar num.

Lightening

Synop num.

Pilot num.

Temp num.

IM, Portugal

850

80

2

Yes

60

INM, Spain

1381

76

7

Yes

191

UB, Spain

175

50

ONM, Algeria

29

29

40

7

1

SAR, Sardinia

49

27

1

INM, Tunisia

96

34

1

ARPA-FVG, Italy

39

25

1

25

ARPA-ER, Italy

80

20

1

10

MHS, Croatia

487

2

2

NIMH, Bulgaria

387

95

1

8

Cyprus MS

163

10

1

Yes

IMS, Israel

400

120

1

120

CITA, Gailicia, Spain

22

22

22

MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Identification of available data (made, preliminarily, from a Questionnaire)


P 39 High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

W 25

RADAR 1

SYNOP 25

P 387

W 95

RADAR 1

SYNOP 8

P 22

W 22

SYNOP 22

P 80

W 20

RADAR 1

SYNOP 10

P 487

W 2?

RADAR 2

SYNOP 2

P 175

W 50

P 850

W 80

RADAR 2

LIGHT.

SYNOP 60

P 1381

W 76

RADAR 7

LIGHT.

SYNOP 191

P 49

W 27

RADAR 1

P 96

W 34

RADAR 1

P 29

W 29

SYNOP 40

PILOT 7

TEMP1

P 163

W 10

RADAR 1

LIGHT.

P 400

W 120

RADAR 1

SYNOP 120

non-GTS data availability


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Identification of available data: additional possibilities

Surface winds from scatterometer

Data from aircraft

Common events from other projects:

MAP, THORPEX, etc.


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Societal benefits and impact assessment

  • Elements:

  • Involvement of end users

  • Impact of the research on society

  • Incorporation of the societal impacts into MEDEX

  • Involvement of end users

    • Most of the NWS and some regional weather services in the Mediterranean are involved in MEDEX

    • Most of the weather services have close contact with civil defence, marine safety, hydrology, ... organisms

    • A few civil defence and marine safety services could be directly involved in MEDEX (in Spain they actually are)


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Societal benefits and impact assessment

  • Impact of the research on society

    • Better knowledge of the processes has to produce some degree of improved forecasting --> potential impact reduction (although not in the short time):

      • through improvement in modelling

      • through more refined conceptual models (better final forecasting)

    • Better knowledge of forecasting skills and unaccuracies has to conduct to an improved risk management

  • Incorporation of the societal impacts into MEDEX

    • MEDEX will try to incorporate information about the societal impact of the selected events (at least) in order to quantify the impacts associated to the phenomena concerned.

    • MEDEX will try to evaluate the reduction of impact of hazardous weather after an hypothetical improvement of the prediction of the associated cyclones. This requires:

      • To develop a tool for measuring the skill of NWP in forecasting cyclones (included in Specific Objective 2).

      • To analyse the sensitivity of the final weather prediction to the accuracy of the forecasting of the associated cyclone


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Scientific management

  • Elements

  • Science Steering Committee for MEDEX

  • Participating Institutions

  • MEDEX Advisory Group

  • MEDEX Permanent Centre

Science Steering Committee for MEDEX

Pinhas Alpert, TAU, Israel

Philippe Arbogast, Météo-France

Andrea Buzzi, ISAO, CNR, Italy

James Doyle, NRL, USA

Klaus P. Hoinka, DLR, Germany

Agustí Jansà (*), INM, Spain

Vassiliki Kotroni, NOA, Greece

Climent Ramis, UIB, Spain

Evelyne Richard, LA, France

Antonio Speranza, DSTN, Italy


INM, Tunisia High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

ICoD, Malta

MHS, Croatia

NIMH, Bulgaria

NOA, Greece

DMN, Morocco

Meteo-Swiss

Turquish M.S.

IM, Portugal

SAR, Italy

ARPA-FVG, Italy

Cyprus M.S.

INM, Spain

Meteotrentino, Italy

TAU, Israel

UIB, Spain

CIMA, Italy

IMS, Israel

UB, Spain

ARPA-ER, Italy

Egytian M.A.

MM, Spain

ISAO, Italy

PC, Spain

DSTN, Italy

UK Met.Office

ONM, Algeria

UGM, Italy

US Navy, NRL

Meteo-France

U.Ferrara, Italy

CITA, Galicia, Spain


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Financing problems

  • It seems to us that WMO has to acquire a certain degree of commitment in locating some funds in support of a few representative participants from developing countries to facilitate their attendance in main MEDEX meetings.

  • Although INM-Spain will try to undertake all the cost or most of the cost of the MEDEX Permanent Centre and of the MEDEX Data Base, some funds to finance the Data Base management could be necessary.

  • The studies on the identification of sensitivity areas do need specific funding.


MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean

WMO

World Weather Research Programme

Financing problems

  • The institutions that are participating in MEDEX are exploring possible sources of financing: In principle, the most plausible way could be the achievement of an optional project on MEDEX of the European Network of Meteorological Services (EUMETNET). An optional project of EUMETNET is financed by a group of members (meteorological services) that adhere to the project. The EUMETNET project on MEDEX would be mostly oriented towards the best implementation and operation of the MEDEX Data Base and to the performance of specific studies on sensitivity. INM-Spain could undertake the role of responsible member for such a project, although there are other possibilities, because other several members of EUMETNET, the national meteorological services of France, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, are also participant institutions in MEDEX.

  • Concerning the studies of sensitivity foreseen in MEDEX, an alternative or complementary source of indirect financing could be the assumption of some of these studies by EUCOS (EUMETNET Composite Observing System programme), in its planning of scientific work. The support of EUMETNET to this assumption is seen as plausible, taking into account that several of the members of EUMETNET are also participating in MEDEX.


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