Panel e linking hsm to population modeling
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Panel E Linking HSM to population modeling. Alignment to objectives Specific to information requirements Ranges of complexity Trade-offs between data availability and complexity/#parameters Expert vs. Empirical? Should be parallel - complimentary

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Panel E Linking HSM to population modeling

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Panel e linking hsm to population modeling

Panel ELinking HSM to population modeling

  • Alignment to objectives

    • Specific to information requirements

  • Ranges of complexity

    • Trade-offs between data availability and complexity/#parameters

  • Expert vs. Empirical?

    • Should be parallel - complimentary

  • How and why should we link habitat models to population models?

    • Modelling Predator-Prey Population Dynamics for Informing Mountain Caribou Recovery Options in BC

  • What works and what doesn’t?


Panel e linking hsm to population modeling

Spatial Output from MC-HSM

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Prey Potential Density

Density

Density

Density

Density

Density

Density

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Predator

Background

Predation

Predator Efficiency

Road Density

Road Density

Road Density

Density

Density

Density

Density

Density

Density

Time Series

Time Series

Time Series

Density

Density

Density

Density

Density

Density

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Potential

Predator

Predator

Predator

Potential

Potential

Potential

Predator

Predator

Predator

Density

Density

Density

Predator

Predator

Predator

Road Density

Road Density

Road Density

Density

Density

Density

Time Series

Time Series

Time Series

Density

Density

Density

Spatial Preprocessing

Walter’s Multi-Species Disc Equation

Population Structure

Ungulates

Mortality & Recruitment

Predators Rate of Increase

Mortality Rates

Population Dynamics

Output Indicators

Conceptual Model

Model Outputs

Disc Equation Parameters

1) Rate of Effective Search (ai)

  • search rate (km2/day) X prob kill given encounter

  • modified by predator search rate adjustment factor

    2) Time spent in strata (Ti)

  • sum of search time and handling time

  • estimated based on potential edible biomass for strata

    3) Prey density in strata (Ni)

    4) Handling time for prey (hj)


Panel e linking hsm to population modeling

Model Development

Spatial Aspects of Model

  • Preprocessing Step

    • For each prey species and each season

    • Expected Value for potential density, PSRA, and CAM is drawn from mean and sd for each 1ha cell


Panel e linking hsm to population modeling

Model Development

Spatial Aspects of Model

  • Preprocessing Step

    • For each prey species and each season

    • Expected Value for potential density, PSRA, and CAM is drawn from mean and sd for each 1ha cell

  • Layers rescaled from 100x100m to 1000 x1000m, using mean


Panel e linking hsm to population modeling

Model Development

Spatial Aspects of Model

  • Prey population is distributed in each cell based on the relative densities

Expected Potential Density (i.e., expected values from BBN)


Panel e linking hsm to population modeling

Model Development

Spatial Aspects of Model

  • Prey population is distributed in each cell based on the relative densities

Matrix sums to one

Relative Densityij= Expected Densityij/ ∑(Expected Densityij)


Panel e linking hsm to population modeling

Model Development

Spatial Aspects of Model

  • Expected density – integrated over the season

Matrix sums to initial population size (e.g., 500)

Expected Population Densityij = N * Relative Densityij


What works and what doesn t

What works and what doesn’t?

  • Spatial models are CPU intensive

  • Uncertainty in parameter estimates -> stochastic model -> Multiple iterations

  • Decoupling spatial processing from a spatial population model


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