Policies politics and the way we price milk
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Policies, Politics and the Way We Price Milk. Mark Stephenson Director of Dairy Policy Analysis. What Is Special About Milk?. It’s perishable It’s bulky It’s produced and must be sold 365 days a year Specialized assets for production Many more sellers than buyers

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Policies politics and the way we price milk

Policies, Politics and the Way We Price Milk

Mark Stephenson

Director of Dairy Policy Analysis


What is special about milk

What Is Special About Milk?

  • It’s perishable

  • It’s bulky

  • It’s produced and must be sold 365 days a year

  • Specialized assets for production

  • Many more sellers than buyers

  • Relatively inelastic demand for products

  • Historically led to “destructive competition”


Federal milk marketing orders

Federal Milk Marketing Orders

  • Cooperatives had modest success in policing the marketplace

  • Federal government instituted Marketing Agreements

  • Shortly thereafter, Marketing Agreements became Marketing Orders

  • Marketing Orders act like a traffic cop in the market

    • They regulate the terms of trade

    • They measure

    • They assure compliance


Classified pricing

Classified Pricing

  • Class I — generally highest price

  • Class II

  • Class III

  • Class IV — generally lowest price

What is consistent with this ordering?

These are minimum prices to be paid!


Pooling

Pooling

  • Processors contribute differently to the Federal Order Pool, but producers receive the blended value.


Regulating minimum prices

Regulating Minimum Prices

Price

Supply

Over-Order Premiums will get you back here.

Pd

Pm

Ps

Demand

Quantity

Qm

Qs

Qd


Benefits of fmmo for producers

Benefits of FMMO for Producers

  • Classified pricing can improve producer returns but it is not a price support—Markets must still clear.

  • Pooling is about equity—sharing in those higher returns

    • Sharing a pool comes at a cost—qualification and performance

  • Plants are audited

  • Prices are coordinated across markets (efficiency in transportation)


Benefits for processors

Benefits for Processors

  • Plants know that their competitors are paying at least the minimum class price.

  • Manufacturing plants get a “pool draw” to pay their producers the same uniform or blend price.

  • Both producers and processors benefit from federal order data

    • Testing

    • Audited milk production

    • Transportation, etc.


How would you price milk

How would you price milk?


Ingredient product streams

Ingredient & Product Streams

Ingredients

Milk

Cheese

Sweet Cream

Whey

Dried Whey

Let’s survey the market price for these products and back into a milk price.

Whey Cream

WPC

We want to price this.

Permeate

Butter

Lactose


Product price formulas

Product Price Formulas

  • Based on weekly AMS surveys of product sold


Product price formulas1

Product Price Formulas

Butterfat Price = (Butter price - 0.1715) x 1.211

Make Allowance - What does it cost you to transform milk into 1 pound of butter?

Yield Factor - How many pounds of butter can you make from 1 pound of butterfat?


Product price formulas2

Product Price Formulas

  • Dairy producers want a small make allowance and a large yield factor

  • Dairy processors want a large make allowance and a small yield factor

  • How do you determine the correct parameter values?


The issue of make allowance

The Issue of Make Allowance

  • Who’s price?

    • Highest

    • Lowest

    • Average


Minimum milk price to producers

Minimum Milk Price to Producers

  • Pounds of Butterfat

  • Pounds of Protein

  • Pounds of Other Solids (lactose + minerals)

  • Quality (Somatic Cell)

  • Total Pounds of Milk


Premiums often paid over order

Premiums often paid (over order)

  • Quality (somatic cell, bacteria)

  • Volume

  • Protein

  • Plant or Market

  • Hauling subsidies


New policy

New Policy?

  • Use policy to fix problems that the market or an individual can’t

    • Standards of identity

    • FMMOs

    • Price Support Program

  • Policy fails when it does too little or too much

    • Eg. Price Support Program

  • Policy does not determine the end result—only the path that the market takes


Today s issues

Today’s Issues

  • Price Volatility

    • Much discussion since about 2006

      • Refundable Assessments (Milk Producers’ Council, 2007)

      • Mandatory CWT (Dairy Farmers Working Together, 2007)

      • Growth Management Plan (Milk Producer’s Council, 2009)

      • Dairy Growth Management Initiative (DFA, 2009)

      • Marginal Milk Pricing (Agri-Mark, 2010)

      • Dairy Market Stabilization Program (NMPF, 2010)

      • Farm Savings Accounts (discussed by DIAC, 2010)

      • Margin Insurance Programs (NMPF’s DPMPP and discussed by DIAC, 2010-11)

      • Market Cow Bonus Program (DPAC, 2011)

      • Farm Savings Accounts (again, processor groups, 2011)

      • Peterson Discussion Draft (July 2011; modified DMSP)

      • Dairy Security Act of 2011 (September 2011)

      • Federal Milk Marketing Improvement Act of 2011 (Casey, October 2011)

      • Rural Economic Farm and Ranch Sustainability and Hunger Act of 2011 (October 2011)

    • Most have focused on supply correction (temporary quota, cull cow)

    • Some have focused on self-help (better LGM-D, FSA, etc.)


Price risk

Price Risk!

U.S. All Milk Price


We have four cycles

We Have Four Cycles

  • There appears to be a 9 month cycle

  • There appears to be an annual cycle

  • There appears to be a 26 month cycle

  • There appears to be a 36 month cycle


Spectral decomposition

Spectral Decomposition


Volatility in inputs too

Volatility in Inputs Too

NASS Dairy Feed Ration


Some variation of the the dairy security act of 2011 is the starting point

Some Variation of the The Dairy Security Act of 2011 is the Starting Point

  • Cost savings by repeal of MILC, DPPSP & DEIP

  • New safety net with margin protection insurance

  • Reduce milk price volatility with temporary reductions in milk supply


Points to consider

Points to Consider

  • The program is voluntary.

  • Margin Insurance and the Market Stabilization are linked—you can’t have one without the other.

  • You would have several months to make a decision to register after the bill is enacted.

  • If you register, you will need to make a decision at that time about the level of insurance and the percent of milk.


The margin

The Margin

  • NASS All Milk Price

    Minus

  • Ration Value

    • NASS corn, NASS alfalfa hay, AMS Soybean Meal


Dairy producer margin protection program

Dairy Producer Margin Protection Program

  • $4 base margin coverage is free

  • Partially subsidized premiums for supplemental coverage (25%–90% of base)

  • Run by FSA

  • Calculated as

    2 month pairs

    Jan-Feb,

    Mar-Apr,

    etc.


Historic trigger values

Historic Trigger Values


Margin protection details

Margin Protection Details

  • If you register, your historic base will be highest annual production in the previous three years.

    • New producers can register within 180 days of first milk production. Will prorate annual production.

  • You get margin protection on 80% of this historic base for free.

  • Your annual production history is updated every year.


Margin protection details1

Margin Protection Details

  • If you want to protect more than free margin base, you can buy up in 50¢ increments

  • You can protect from 25% to 90 % of your production base.

  • This election is made at the time you register and continues throughout the life of the bill but the levels of supplemental insurance can be changed each year.

  • Annual premiums must be paid by Jan 15 or in 2 installments.


Example margin protection

Example Margin Protection

  • Your historic base is 20 million pounds

  • You choose a $5.50 margin protection level at 75% of your production

  • Two years later you have grown to 30 million pounds.


Example margin protection1

Example Margin Protection

  • If margin is calculated as $3.50 average for two months.

    • Indemnity is triggered

    • You are paid $4.00 - $3.50 = 50¢ on your historic base = 50¢ * (200,000cwt / 6 ) * 80% = $13,333

    • You receive a supplemental payment of $5.50 - $4.00 = $1.50 on your production base = $1.50 * (300,000cwt / 6) * 75% = $56,250

    • Total 2 month payment = $13,333 + $56,250= $69,583


Dairy market stabilization program

Dairy Market Stabilization Program

  • Uses same margin trigger calculation

  • The average trigger value is based on consecutive two-month periods

    • E.g., Jan-Feb, Feb-Mar, Mar-Apr, etc.

  • Different milk production base

    • Most recent 3-month average

    • Same month from previous year

    • Can select which base calculation each year by Jan 15


Dairy market stabilization program1

Dairy Market Stabilization Program

  • Triggers if 2-month average margin is below $6

    • $5—$6, no payment on milk over 2% of base to 6% of current marketings

    • $4—$5, no payment on milk over 3% of base to 7% of current marketings

  • Triggers if 1-month average margin is below $4

    • Under $4, no payment on milk over 4% of base to 8% of current marketings


Dairy market stabilization program2

Dairy Market Stabilization Program

  • Triggers can increase

    • For example, if you were in a $6 trigger event and next month’s calculated 2-month average is now below $5, the more restrictive trigger is active.

    • It appears as though if it is a long trigger event, a rolling 3-month base can incorporate your reduced marketings.

    • Program is suspended when 2-month average is above $6 or U.S. price for cheddar or NFDM is more than 20% higher than world prices.


Modeling the dsa

Modeling the DSA

  • Need many assumptions about participation

  • Look at Baseline and 2 scenarios

    • High participation, 50% of producers register in each of 4 farm size categories and choose to protect 60% of their milk at a $6 margin.

    • Low Participation differs by farm size: 10%, 5%, 2.5% and 1% of S, M, L, XL protect 50% of milk at $5.


All milk price

All Milk Price


Government expenditures

Government Expenditures


Nfoi for representative medium farm

NFOI for Representative Medium Farm


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