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Climate Change Effects on Coastal Ecosystem Services: Ecological and Economic Implications
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Climate Change Effects on Coastal Ecosystem Services: Ecological and Economic Implications Ann Shellenbarger Jones. Technical Assistance funded by EPA through the Climate Ready Estuaries Program. Overview of Evaluation. SLAMM – model for habitat change due to sea level rise

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Technical assistance funded by epa through the climate ready estuaries program

Climate Change Effects on Coastal Ecosystem Services: Ecological and Economic ImplicationsAnn Shellenbarger Jones

Technical Assistance funded by EPA through the Climate Ready Estuaries Program


Overview of evaluation

Overview of Evaluation

  • SLAMM – model for habitat change due to sea level rise

  • HEA – habitat equivalency analysis

    • allows tradeoffs in habitat services over time

    • calculates costs associated with restoration

  • Combine - estimate ecological and economic impacts of habitat loss and restoration

  • Goal today – improve data sources for SLAMM


Sample slamm draft cumberland county

Sample SLAMM – Draft Cumberland County

  • 2000 vs 2100

  • Gradual inundation

  • ? - wetland types, edge/middle dynamics


Data gaps

Accretion

Vegetation Type and Condition

Erosion

Ponding

Ecological Services

Development Layer – in progress

Data Gaps


Accretion

Accretion

  • Relying on Reed et al. 2008 / CCSP literature review.

  • No info for NJ bay marshes

  • Data are pre-2000

  • Salt/brackish – 4-5 mm/yr

  • Tidal Fresh – 10 mm/yr


Vegetation

Vegetation

  • Type, %Cover, Condition

  • PSEG

  • National Vegetation Classification System

  • Interested in GIS layers


Erosion

Erosion

  • SLAMM implements erosion based on fetch threshold

  • Default = 2 m/yr

  • Data needs: maps of erosion rates; information by marsh type, county, etc.


Ponding

Ponding

  • Questions raised on sites, reasons for ponding

  • How to predict?

  • Dike data


Ecological services

Ecological Services

  • Primary/secondary productivity

  • T&E or “key” species habitat

  • Carbon sequestration

  • Local research on sequestration?

  • Water quality impacts

  • Nitrogen, Phosphorus cycling

  • Data for scrub-shrub/forested wetlands


Development

Development

  • Next iteration – development layer

  • Allows wetland migration to undeveloped land

  • Also – consider shore protection scenarios


Comments sources

Comments, Sources?

Contact Ann Shellenbarger Jones

Industrial Economics

ajones@indecon.com

617-354-0074

Or

Priscilla Cole at PDE


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