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Technical Assistance funded by EPA through the Climate Ready Estuaries Program

Climate Change Effects on Coastal Ecosystem Services: Ecological and Economic Implications Ann Shellenbarger Jones. Technical Assistance funded by EPA through the Climate Ready Estuaries Program. Overview of Evaluation . SLAMM – model for habitat change due to sea level rise

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Technical Assistance funded by EPA through the Climate Ready Estuaries Program

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  1. Climate Change Effects on Coastal Ecosystem Services: Ecological and Economic ImplicationsAnn Shellenbarger Jones Technical Assistance funded by EPA through the Climate Ready Estuaries Program

  2. Overview of Evaluation • SLAMM – model for habitat change due to sea level rise • HEA – habitat equivalency analysis • allows tradeoffs in habitat services over time • calculates costs associated with restoration • Combine - estimate ecological and economic impacts of habitat loss and restoration • Goal today – improve data sources for SLAMM

  3. Sample SLAMM – Draft Cumberland County • 2000 vs 2100 • Gradual inundation • ? - wetland types, edge/middle dynamics

  4. Accretion Vegetation Type and Condition Erosion Ponding Ecological Services Development Layer – in progress Data Gaps

  5. Accretion • Relying on Reed et al. 2008 / CCSP literature review. • No info for NJ bay marshes • Data are pre-2000 • Salt/brackish – 4-5 mm/yr • Tidal Fresh – 10 mm/yr

  6. Vegetation • Type, %Cover, Condition • PSEG • National Vegetation Classification System • Interested in GIS layers

  7. Erosion • SLAMM implements erosion based on fetch threshold • Default = 2 m/yr • Data needs: maps of erosion rates; information by marsh type, county, etc.

  8. Ponding • Questions raised on sites, reasons for ponding • How to predict? • Dike data

  9. Ecological Services • Primary/secondary productivity • T&E or “key” species habitat • Carbon sequestration • Local research on sequestration? • Water quality impacts • Nitrogen, Phosphorus cycling • Data for scrub-shrub/forested wetlands

  10. Development • Next iteration – development layer • Allows wetland migration to undeveloped land • Also – consider shore protection scenarios

  11. Comments, Sources? Contact Ann Shellenbarger Jones Industrial Economics ajones@indecon.com 617-354-0074 Or Priscilla Cole at PDE

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