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FINANCIAL CONDITION REPORTING

FINANCIAL CONDITION REPORTING. Ioana Abrahams 13 November 2009. AGENDA. Current methodology Background FCR FCR to date FCR Graphical Overview Model options under FCR Prescribed Model Internal Model Partial Model Conclusion Way forward. CURRENT METHODOLOGY. Current methodology

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FINANCIAL CONDITION REPORTING

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  1. FINANCIAL CONDITION REPORTING Ioana Abrahams 13 November 2009

  2. AGENDA • Current methodology • Background • FCR • FCR to date • FCR Graphical Overview • Model options under FCR • Prescribed Model • Internal Model • Partial Model • Conclusion • Way forward

  3. CURRENT METHODOLOGY • Current methodology • Insurance liabilities: • Outstanding claims reserves (OCR) • Incurred but not reported reserve (IBNR) • Unearned premium provision (UPP) • Unexpired risk reserve (URR) • Contingency reserve: 10% of NWP • Capital requirement: • Additional amount: 15% of net written premium (NWP) • Minimum of R3 million (shortly to be increased to R5 million then 10 million under FCR)

  4. BACKGROUND • Current methodology doesn’t allow for: • Underlying risks • Size of insurer • Diversification / concentration • Risk management • FSB is implementing risk-based supervision • IAIS requirements must be met • Act changes made during 2008 to facilitate FCR • World-wide trend to move to different techniques

  5. FCR TO DATE • The FCR process was started in 2002 • Various working groups formed • The first calibration done during 2005 • First issues paper released for comment in December 2006 • Comments received were taken into account and this resulted in a recalibration exercise • Recalibration exercise started in 2007; now nearly complete

  6. FCR GRAPHICAL OVERVIEW

  7. MODEL OPTIONS UNDER FCR • Prescribed Method • Industry structure • Industry Parameters • Internal Models • Company structure • Company parameters • Peer review (application) • Annual certification by an actuary • Partial Models • A combination of above two options • Revised issues paper

  8. PRESCRIBED MODEL • Based on aggregate industry data – “average” view • Formulae for reserves and margins • Capital requirement allows for proportional reinsurance and expenses • Some shortcomings of initial model: • Non-proportional reinsurance • Data not always reliable • Cell business • Reinsurance companies

  9. PRESCRIBED MODEL • Capital requirement • Consists of: • Asset Capital Charge • Very small part of total capital charge • Protection against loss in market value of the assets backing the liabilities and other capital elements • Insurance Capital Charge • Major part of total capital charge • Calculation tool in ST return

  10. PRESCRIBED MODEL • Assets • Use current Act & Directives • Insurance liabilities • Claim liabilities • OCR – best estimate (should be the same) • IBNR – six-year run-off per business class • Premium liabilities • UPP – as before, seen as 75% sufficient • URR – as before • Prescribed margins take liabilities to 75% sufficiency

  11. PRESCRIBED MODEL: REVISED • Small working group was formed in 2007 • Considered comments on how previous method could be improved • Terms of reference for recalibration • Deloitte was appointed for the recalibration exercise • Three years of data added (FY 2005 - 2007) • Aims: • Simplify previous method • More appropriate method for typical insurers

  12. PRESCRIBED MODEL: REVISED • The following changes were made to the previous prescribed model: • Simplify diversification and correlation • Discounted IBNR • Credit Risk: Reinsurance • Credit Risk: Assets • Non-proportional reinsurance (MER) • Remove expense and investment return adjustment • Minimum CAR – will include an allowance for operating expenses and operational risk

  13. PRELIMINARY RECALIBRATION RESULTS

  14. EFFECT OF UPDATES

  15. INTERNAL MODEL • This is (in our opinion) what an insurer should develop – However: • Determining regulatory capital should not be the primary reason • Appropriateness with respect to complexity of risks • Detailed data required • Guidance will be updated, taking international practices into account

  16. INTERNAL MODELS • Qualitative standards • IM based on sound risk management principles and structure • Integral part of day-to-day management • Independent review • Audit trail • Analysis of change

  17. INTERNAL MODEL • Specification of risk factors • Must consider all risks • Rank most important risks • Suitable method chosen – not necessarily stochastic • Allow for correlations between risks (method not prescribed) • Stress testing • Specific tests not prescribed • Test model sensitivity to assumptions

  18. INTERNAL MODEL • Sign-off and review • Board assumes ultimate responsibility • Statutory actuary sign-off of calculations • Actuary to follow professional guidance • IAA guidance on internal models • SA guidance for reserving completed • External review required for approval (at this stage)

  19. INTERNAL MODEL • Proposed model approval process • Approval for calculating regulatory capital • External providers’ models not approved automatically • Application form • On-site visits • Use test, calibration test, statistical quality test • Model used at least one year prior to implementation • Progress from prescribed  partial  internal model • Can’t regress without approval • Application subject to a fee

  20. PARTIAL MODEL • This is a combination of own company specific factors and industry factors • Same approval process proposed as for the full internal model route

  21. CONCLUSION • The FCR model is specific to the short-term environment • The proposed FCR approach fits in with international developments • Risk-based capital requirements • A better model to run an insurance business

  22. WAY FORWARD • New Solvency Assessment and Management (SAM) project • Based on Solvency II • Will encompass both life and short-term insurance • Work done to date on FCR will be the first draft for discussion for short-term insurance • First Steering Committee meeting end November 2009 • Full implementation 1 January 2014; however, standardised model for short-term insurance to be implemented on 1 January 2012

  23. THANK YOU Ioana Abrahams Actuarial Analyst: Insurance Tel: 012 428 804 Email: ioanaa@fsb.co.za

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