Potential Impacts of an Advanced Energy Portfolio Standard  in Pennsylvania

Potential Impacts of an Advanced Energy Portfolio Standard in Pennsylvania PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Potential Impacts of an Advanced Energy Portfolio Standard in Pennsylvania

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1. Potential Impacts of an Advanced Energy Portfolio Standard in Pennsylvania Ryan Pletka, P.E. Black & Veatch November 9, 2004

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3. - 3 Study Objective Identify most cost effective mix of resources built in response to AEPS Identify economic benefits or costs

4. - 4 Current Status of Renewable and Advanced Energy In Pennsylvania Current installations: 730 MW Hydro 430 MW Biomass (Including municipal solid waste) 130 MW Wind 1,922 MW Waste Coal Policy System Benefit Funds have stimulated renewables Current “RPS” Policy Ineffective State Received a “D” from UCS Over 200 Companies in the Renewable Energy Industry American Hydro Ebara Solar Sea Solar Power GE and Gamesa

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7. - 7 AEPS Eligible Resources Tier I Wind Low-impact hydro Biogas and coal mine methane Biomass Solar photovoltaics “Energy conservation” – demand side, ie, consumers “Energy efficiency” – supply side, ie, power plants Solar thermal Ocean and lake energy Solid waste (non combustion) Fuel cells fueled by Tier I resources Tier II Resources Waste Coal New facilities Air pollution controls at existing facilities Integrated gasification combined cycle Fuel cells fueled by non-Tier I resources Greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions

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9. - 9 Biomass Cofiring Assessment Pennsylvania has good biomass resources and lots of coal plants Focused on cofiring at 38 existing coal units Capital cost: $100-$700/kW Biomass resources Only sustainable and clean resources identified Assessment based on ORNL database Biomass collected from 75 mile radius around plants

10. - 10 Biomass Resources and Coal Plants

11. - 11 Biogas (Landfill and Digester Gas) Assessment Reasonably good potential from biogas resources Internal combustion engines are proven technology Landfill gas based on EPA LMOP database Capital cost: $1,300-$2,350/kW Digester gas examined dairy and swine farms Capital cost: $2,500-$3,750/kW

12. - 12 Hydro Assessment Relatively Modest Hydro Opportunities Analysis Based on INEEL Assessment New Sites Upgrades at Existing Plants Generation Additions to Dams Without Power 42 Projects Identified, 5 at Undeveloped Sites

13. - 13 Energy Conservation / Efficiency Assessment Good opportunity for energy conservation/efficiency in PA Analysis Based on B&V, ACEEE assessments Residential measures Commercial & Industrial measures Over 16,000 GWh of potential identified over 20 years About 10% of PA consumption Wide range of costs and payback potential Consumers won’t necessarily implement measures even if economical

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15. - 15 Properly Characterizing Resource Cost One of the largest modeling differences between renewables and fossil fuels is that costs vary tremendously based on renewable resource quality There are a limited number of very good renewable / advanced project sites Costs rise as “low-hanging” projects are developed Supply curves capture these effects

16. - 16 Simple Supply Curve Example

17. - 17 Biogas Supply Curve 2006 Premium over Avoided Costs

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19. - 19 Aggregate Tier II Supply Curve 2010

20. - 20 Tier I Cost Premium Supply Curves

21. - 21 Tier II Cost Premium Supply Curves

22. - 22 Optimum Mix of Resources to Meet the AEPS Requirements

23. - 23 Tier I Least Cost Mix Wind, biomass cofiring, and energy conservation comprise about 80 percent of mix Some solar (4 MW) assumed to be built, even though not economical

24. - 24 Tier II Least Cost Mix Waste coal combustion is projected to make up all of Tier II

25. - 25 Projected Build-out Schedule (6,470 MW) This Portfolio Used to Calculate Economic Impacts

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28. - 28 Pennsylvania Employment Impacts, “Job-years” per MW

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30. - 30 Conclusions and Acknowledgements Acknowledgements Community Foundation for the Alleghenies – Mike Kane Heinz Endowments PA DEP REPP Industry

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