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Four Mega Trends. Impacting High School Reinvention. Ray McNulty Senior Vice President International Center for Leadership in Education Hawaii January 22-23, 2007. Dreams of the children we have. Class of 2017. Themes. Some Thoughts Educational Challenges Four Megatrends.

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Four mega trends

Four Mega Trends

Impacting High School Reinvention

Ray McNulty

Senior Vice President

International Center for Leadership in Education

Hawaii January 22-23, 2007


Themes

Dreams of the children we have

Class of 2017

Themes

  • Some Thoughts

  • Educational Challenges

  • Four Megatrends

Success to Significance


Some thoughts

Some thoughts…


Reform

REFORM

What are some thoughts that come to mind when you hear this word?


Renewal

RENEWAL


Rigor relevance all

Rigor/Relevance - All


The implementation dip the possibility curve

THE IMPLEMENTATION DIP…. THE POSSIBILITY CURVE..

Fullan--1990


Epidemic of immediacy

Epidemic of Immediacy

  • Clock of the Long Now….


Really bad predictions

REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

  • “Law will be simplified. . .Lawyers will have diminished, and their fees will have been vastly curtailed.”

  • Journalist Junius Henri Browne, 1893


Really bad predictions1

REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

  • “Before man reaches the moon your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.”

  • Arthur Summerfield, US Postmaster General under Eisenhower, 1959.


Really bad predictions2

REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

  • “Daily toil . . . will be shortened to four or five hours” U.S. Senator W.A. Peffer of Kansas, 1893.

  • “There will be no epidemics. There will be no incurable diseases.” Norman Bel Geddes in Ladies’ Home Journal, 1931.


Demastification

DEMASTIFICATION

  • We have as a people, fewer shared experiences.

  • ChoiceCable Stations


Disintermediation

DISINTERMEDIATION

  • Printing Press


Educational trends

EDUCATIONAL TRENDS


Trends

Trends

  • A Fundamental Challenge

  • Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations

  • Secondary Focus – College and Work Ready


Four mega trends

Fundamental ChallengeChanging the expectations of educators, parents, community members and students regarding what is possible.


Four mega trends

All students graduate as strong citizens ready for college and work.

“Ready for college and work” means that students:

  • have strong reading, writing and math skills

  • are prepared for a range of post-secondary options

  • become informed citizens who can grapple with tough social problems


Naep reading 17 year olds

NAEP Reading, 17 Year-Olds

21

29


Naep math 17 year olds

NAEP Math, 17 Year-Olds

28

20


Four mega trends

There has also been a skills convergence: high school graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Colleges and employers demand similar knowledge and skill sets

  • In math, they require algebra, data analysis, and statistics

  • In English they demand strong oral and written communication skills, analytical and research skills

  • Machine Operator

  • Eastman Chemical Company

  • Required Skills:

    • Calculate and apply ratios, proportions and percentages to solve problems

    • Add, subtract, multiply, divide and simplify rational expressions

    • Recognize and solve problems using a linear equation and one variable

    • Apply principals in equations involving measurements

    • Determine the perimeter and the circumference of geometric shapes

  • College Algebra

  • Required Skills:

    • Add, subtract, multiply, divide and simplify rational expressions

    • Understand functional notation

    • Solve systems of two linear equations in two variables

    • Solve quadratic equations in one variable

    • Graph a linear equation and quadratic function

    • Determine the perimeter and the circumference of geometric shapes

    • Represent geometric objects and figures algebraically

Source: American Diploma Project, 2003


Changing perceptions and increased expectations

Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations

  • The growing need for personalization and customization will influence not only the way that business is conducted but also how schools will function.


Four mega trends1

Four Mega Trends


Challenges

Challenges

  • Globalization

  • Demographics

  • Values / Beliefs

  • Technology


Globalization

Globalization

  • 9/11

  • 11/9

  • Information Tech (Work to Worker)


Globalization1

Globalization

  • Tax Returns

  • MRIs

  • Reuters

  • McDonalds

  • A- Level


China

China

  • Clothes / Shoes

  • Furniture

  • Consumer Electronics

  • Computers

  • Bio Technology


Cities with 1 million people

Cities with 1 Million People


Number of participants intel international science competition

Number of ParticipantsIntel International Science Competition

  • U.S.50,000

  • China

6 Million

SOURCE: Craig Barrett, CEO Intel


China1

China

  • World Class for 10%

  • K – 12 Universal by 2020

  • 100 World Class Universities

  • 30 World Class Research Universities

  • Math /Science Focus (Specialist – 3rd Grade on)

  • International Orientation (110 Million – English)

  • Coherent Teacher Preparation

  • Early Childhood (3 year old – universal by 2015)

  • Career Focus

Source: Education in China: Lessons for U.S. Educators, Asia Society – Business Roundtable, CCSSO


Challenges1

Challenges

  • Globalization

  • Demographics

  • Values / Beliefs

  • Technology


Start working end working longevity

Start WorkingEnd WorkingLongevity

107

77

62

62

47

21

14

18

1900

2000

2100


Over 85

Over 85

  • 19943.5 Million

  • 20207 Million

  • 205027 Million


Demographics economic

Demographics / Economic

  • 1910 3.0 / 100

  • 1946 4.6 / 100

  • 20001.4 – 1.8 / 100


Medicare

Medicare

  • 20049 %

  • 202025 %

  • 204050 %


Registered voters school age children

Registered VotersSchool Age Children

  • 196050 %

  • 200518 %


Challenges2

Challenges

  • Globalization

  • Demographics

  • Values / Beliefs

  • Technology


Larger context

Larger Context

  • 1901 – 24G.I.

  • 1925 – 42Silent

  • 1943 – 60Boomers

  • 1961 – 81Gen X

  • 1982 -Millennial


Millennial parents

Millennial Parents

  • Accountability

  • Protective

  • Connected 24 / 7

  • Cool to be Smart

  • Team Skills

  • Cool to Know Technology


Four mega trends

Out of every 100 ninth graders….


Four mega trends

65 will graduate from high school


Four mega trends

39 will enter college


Four mega trends

26 are still enrolled in the sophomore year


Four mega trends

15 will graduate from college


Challenges3

Challenges

  • Globalization

  • Demographics

  • Values / Beliefs

  • Technology


Four mega trends

Information Technology

  • Processing

  • Communications


Four mega trends

Nano Technology

  • Atom Up


1964 ibm system 360 mainframe

1964 IBM System / 360 Mainframe

Central Units’ Memory = 8 MB

2004 iPod = 4 GB

2005 iPod = 20 GB

2006 iPod = 80 GB


Four mega trends

Image source: www.dell.com


Four mega trends

Image source: http://robota.dem.uc.pt/pda_control/pda2.JPG


Four mega trends

SPOT

  • Microsoft

    • Citizen

    • Fossil

    • Suunco


Four mega trends

SPOT

  • Integrated Projection

  • Projection Keyboard


Four mega trends

Projection Keyboard


Four mega trends

Projection Keyboard


Four mega trends

Projection Keyboard and Projector


Four mega trends

Bio Technology

  • Biological Science

  • Practical Application


Four mega trends

Bio-Info

  • Cell

  • DNA

Hardware

Software


Genetically engineered foods

Genetically Engineered Foods

  • Tomato


World wide web

World Wide Web


Google

Google

  • 2003350,000 searches a day

  • 20061,000,000,000 searches a day

Source: Thomas l. Friedman


Semantic web

Semantic Web

1980s:

“internetworking protocols” link computers

(Internet)

1990s:

“hypertext transfer protocol”link documents

(WWW)

2000s:

“grid protocols” link databases

(Grid computing)


Semantic web1

Semantic Web

  • Analyze Documents

    • Key words and headers

    • Meaning/concepts

  • Complete Task


Information systems

Information Systems

  • Hardware

  • Tools

  • Capacity


Grid computing

Grid Computing


Language translation

Language Translation

Ear Buds


Translation goggles

Translation Goggles


Four mega trends

Evolution of the Telephone

1970s

1950s

Today

1990s


Ready for work youth employment outcomes

To Deliver 21st Century Skills & Content:

The Common Core

Ready for

College

Academic

Outcomes

21st Century

Skills & Content

Information & Media Literacy

Communication

Critical & Systems Thinking

Problem Solving

Creativity, Intellectual Curiosity

Interpersonal Skills

Self-Direction

Accountability and Adaptability

Social Responsibility

Financial Literacy

Global Awareness

Civic Literacy

Specific Vocational Knowledge & Skills

Subject

Matter

Knowledge

Ready for Work

Youth Employment Outcomes

Cultural, Physical & Behavioral Health Knowledge & Skills

Ready for Life

Youth Development Outcomes


Themes1

Dreams of the children we have

Class of 2017

Themes

  • Some Thoughts

  • Educational Challenges

  • Four Megatrends

Success to Significance


Four mega trends2

Four Mega Trends

Impacting High School Reinvention

Ray McNulty

Senior Vice President

International Center for Leadership in Education

Hawaii January 22-23, 2007


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