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Four Mega Trends. Impacting High School Reinvention. Ray McNulty Senior Vice President International Center for Leadership in Education Hawaii January 22-23, 2007. Dreams of the children we have. Class of 2017. Themes. Some Thoughts Educational Challenges Four Megatrends.

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Four mega trends

Four Mega Trends

Impacting High School Reinvention

Ray McNulty

Senior Vice President

International Center for Leadership in Education

Hawaii January 22-23, 2007


Themes

Dreams of the children we have

Class of 2017

Themes

  • Some Thoughts

  • Educational Challenges

  • Four Megatrends

Success to Significance



Reform

REFORM

What are some thoughts that come to mind when you hear this word?




The implementation dip the possibility curve
THE IMPLEMENTATION DIP…. THE POSSIBILITY CURVE..

Fullan--1990


Epidemic of immediacy
Epidemic of Immediacy

  • Clock of the Long Now….


Really bad predictions
REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

  • “Law will be simplified. . .Lawyers will have diminished, and their fees will have been vastly curtailed.”

  • Journalist Junius Henri Browne, 1893


Really bad predictions1
REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

  • “Before man reaches the moon your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.”

  • Arthur Summerfield, US Postmaster General under Eisenhower, 1959.


Really bad predictions2
REALLY BAD PREDICTIONS

  • “Daily toil . . . will be shortened to four or five hours” U.S. Senator W.A. Peffer of Kansas, 1893.

  • “There will be no epidemics. There will be no incurable diseases.” Norman Bel Geddes in Ladies’ Home Journal, 1931.


Demastification
DEMASTIFICATION

  • We have as a people, fewer shared experiences.

  • Choice Cable Stations


Disintermediation
DISINTERMEDIATION

  • Printing Press



Trends
Trends

  • A Fundamental Challenge

  • Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations

  • Secondary Focus – College and Work Ready


Fundamental ChallengeChanging the expectations of educators, parents, community members and students regarding what is possible.


All students graduate as strong citizens ready for college and work.

“Ready for college and work” means that students:

  • have strong reading, writing and math skills

  • are prepared for a range of post-secondary options

  • become informed citizens who can grapple with tough social problems


Naep reading 17 year olds
NAEP and workReading, 17 Year-Olds

21

29


Naep math 17 year olds
NAEP and workMath, 17 Year-Olds

28

20


There has also been a skills convergence: high school graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Colleges and employers demand similar knowledge and skill sets

  • In math, they require algebra, data analysis, and statistics

  • In English they demand strong oral and written communication skills, analytical and research skills

  • Machine Operator

  • Eastman Chemical Company

  • Required Skills:

    • Calculate and apply ratios, proportions and percentages to solve problems

    • Add, subtract, multiply, divide and simplify rational expressions

    • Recognize and solve problems using a linear equation and one variable

    • Apply principals in equations involving measurements

    • Determine the perimeter and the circumference of geometric shapes

  • College Algebra

  • Required Skills:

    • Add, subtract, multiply, divide and simplify rational expressions

    • Understand functional notation

    • Solve systems of two linear equations in two variables

    • Solve quadratic equations in one variable

    • Graph a linear equation and quadratic function

    • Determine the perimeter and the circumference of geometric shapes

    • Represent geometric objects and figures algebraically

Source: American Diploma Project, 2003


Changing perceptions and increased expectations
Changing Perceptions and Increased Expectations graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • The growing need for personalization and customization will influence not only the way that business is conducted but also how schools will function.


Four mega trends1
Four Mega Trends graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Challenges
Challenges graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Globalization

  • Demographics

  • Values / Beliefs

  • Technology


Globalization
Globalization graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • 9/11

  • 11/9

  • Information Tech (Work to Worker)


Globalization1
Globalization graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Tax Returns

  • MRIs

  • Reuters

  • McDonalds

  • A- Level


China
China graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Clothes / Shoes

  • Furniture

  • Consumer Electronics

  • Computers

  • Bio Technology


Cities with 1 million people
Cities with 1 Million People graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Number of participants intel international science competition
Number of Participants graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering collegeIntel International Science Competition

  • U.S. 50,000

  • China

6 Million

SOURCE: Craig Barrett, CEO Intel


China1
China graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • World Class for 10%

  • K – 12 Universal by 2020

  • 100 World Class Universities

  • 30 World Class Research Universities

  • Math /Science Focus (Specialist – 3rd Grade on)

  • International Orientation (110 Million – English)

  • Coherent Teacher Preparation

  • Early Childhood (3 year old – universal by 2015)

  • Career Focus

Source: Education in China: Lessons for U.S. Educators, Asia Society – Business Roundtable, CCSSO


Challenges1
Challenges graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Globalization

  • Demographics

  • Values / Beliefs

  • Technology


Start working end working longevity

Start Working graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college End Working Longevity

107

77

62

62

47

21

14

18

1900

2000

2100


Over 85
Over 85 graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • 1994 3.5 Million

  • 2020 7 Million

  • 2050 27 Million


Demographics economic
Demographics / Economic graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • 1910 3.0 / 100

  • 1946 4.6 / 100

  • 2000 1.4 – 1.8 / 100


Medicare
Medicare graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • 2004 9 %

  • 2020 25 %

  • 2040 50 %


Registered voters school age children
Registered Voters graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering collegeSchool Age Children

  • 1960 50 %

  • 2005 18 %


Challenges2
Challenges graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Globalization

  • Demographics

  • Values / Beliefs

  • Technology


Larger context
Larger Context graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • 1901 – 24 G.I.

  • 1925 – 42 Silent

  • 1943 – 60 Boomers

  • 1961 – 81 Gen X

  • 1982 - Millennial


Millennial parents
Millennial Parents graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Accountability

  • Protective

  • Connected 24 / 7

  • Cool to be Smart

  • Team Skills

  • Cool to Know Technology


Out of every 100 ninth graders…. graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


65 will graduate from high school graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


39 will enter college graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


26 are still enrolled in the sophomore year graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


15 will graduate from college graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Challenges3
Challenges graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Globalization

  • Demographics

  • Values / Beliefs

  • Technology


Information Technology graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Processing

  • Communications


Nano Technology graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Atom Up


1964 ibm system 360 mainframe
1964 IBM System / 360 Mainframe graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

Central Units’ Memory = 8 MB

2004 iPod = 4 GB

2005 iPod = 20 GB

2006 iPod = 80 GB


Image source: www.dell.com graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Image source: http://robota.dem.uc.pt/pda_control/pda2.JPG graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


SPOT graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Microsoft

    • Citizen

    • Fossil

    • Suunco


SPOT graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Integrated Projection

  • Projection Keyboard


Projection Keyboard graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Projection Keyboard graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Projection Keyboard and Projector graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Bio Technology graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Biological Science

  • Practical Application


Bio-Info graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Cell

  • DNA

Hardware

Software


Genetically engineered foods
Genetically Engineered Foods graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Tomato


World wide web
World Wide Web graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Google
Google graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • 2003 350,000 searches a day

  • 2006 1,000,000,000 searches a day

Source: Thomas l. Friedman


Semantic web
Semantic Web graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

1980s:

“internetworking protocols” link computers

(Internet)

1990s:

“hypertext transfer protocol” link documents

(WWW)

2000s:

“grid protocols” link databases

(Grid computing)


Semantic web1
Semantic Web graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Analyze Documents

    • Key words and headers

    • Meaning/concepts

  • Complete Task


Information systems
Information Systems graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

  • Hardware

  • Tools

  • Capacity


Grid computing
Grid Computing graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Language translation
Language Translation graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

Ear Buds


Translation goggles

Translation Goggles graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college


Evolution of the Telephone graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

1970s

1950s

Today

1990s


Ready for work youth employment outcomes

To Deliver 21 graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering collegest Century Skills & Content:

The Common Core

Ready for

College

Academic

Outcomes

21st Century

Skills & Content

Information & Media Literacy

Communication

Critical & Systems Thinking

Problem Solving

Creativity, Intellectual Curiosity

Interpersonal Skills

Self-Direction

Accountability and Adaptability

Social Responsibility

Financial Literacy

Global Awareness

Civic Literacy

Specific Vocational Knowledge & Skills

Subject

Matter

Knowledge

Ready for Work

Youth Employment Outcomes

Cultural, Physical & Behavioral Health Knowledge & Skills

Ready for Life

Youth Development Outcomes


Themes1

Dreams of the children we have graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

Class of 2017

Themes

  • Some Thoughts

  • Educational Challenges

  • Four Megatrends

Success to Significance


Four mega trends2

Four Mega Trends graduates seeking a family wage job face requirements similar to those entering college

Impacting High School Reinvention

Ray McNulty

Senior Vice President

International Center for Leadership in Education

Hawaii January 22-23, 2007


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