Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On
Download
1 / 99

English - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 245 Views
  • Updated On :

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop, Paraguay, August 14-18 2006 Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones Outline Drivers & impacts on coastal areas Adaptation options V&A tools & data sources Integrating mechanisms Conclusions

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'English' - niveditha


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Slide1 l.jpg

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop,Paraguay, August 14-18 2006Impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessment for coastal zones


Outline l.jpg
Outline

  • Drivers & impacts on coastal areas

  • Adaptation options

  • V&A tools & data sources

  • Integrating mechanisms

  • Conclusions



Climate change and coastal resources l.jpg
Climate Change and Coastal Resources

  • Coastal resources will be affected by a number of consequences of climate change, including:

    • Higher sea levels

    • Higher sea temperatures

    • Changes in precipitation patterns and coastal runoff

    • Changed oceanic conditions

    • Changes in storm tracks, frequencies, and intensities


The main biophysical effects of relative sea level rise l.jpg

Table 5.2. The main biophysical effects of relative sea level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

Biogeophysical effect

Other relevant factors

Climate

Nonclimate

Inundation, flood and storm damage

Surge

Wave and storm climate, morphological changes, sediment supply

Sediment supply, flood management, morphological changes, land claim

Backwater effect (river)

Runoff

Catchment management and land use

Wetland loss (and change)

CO2 fertilization

Sediment supply

Sediment supply, migration space, direct destruction

Erosion

Sediment supply, wave and storm climate

Sediment supply

Saltwater intrusion

Surface waters

Runoff

Catchment management and land use

Groundwater

Rainfall

Land use, aquifer use

Rising water tables/impeded drainage

Rainfall

Land use, aquifer use

The Main Biophysical Effects of Relative Sea Level Rise


Some climate change factors l.jpg

Biogeophysical effects level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

Climate factor

Direction of change

Some Climate Change Factors

Table 5.1. Some climate change and related factors relevant to coasts and their biogeophysical effects (taken from Nicholls, 2002)

Sea water temperature (of surface waters)

Increase

Increased coral bleaching; migration of coastal species toward higher latitudes; decreased incidence of sea ice at higher latitudes

Precipitation intensity/run-off

Intensified hydrological cycle, with wide regional variations

Changed fluvial sediment supply; changed flood risk in coastal lowlands; but also consider catchment management

Wave climate

Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected

Changed patterns of erosion and accretion; changed storm impacts

Storm track, frequency, and intensity

Poorly known, but significant temporal and spatial variability expected

Changed occurrence of storm flooding and storm damage

Increased productivity in coastal ecosystems; decreased CaCO3 saturation impacts on coral reefs

Atmospheric CO2

Increase


Current global predictions of sea level rise l.jpg
Current Global Predictions level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).of Sea Level Rise

  • IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) range for global-mean rise in sea level is between 9 cm and 88 cm by 2100

  • Change outside this range is possible, especially if Antarctica becomes a significant source

  • There is a “commitment to sea level rise” even if atmospheric GHG concentrations are stabilized


Global mean sea level rise 1990 to 2100 sres scenarios l.jpg
Global-Mean Sea Level Rise level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).1990 to 2100 (SRES scenarios)

Houghton et al., 2001


Processes controlling sea level change l.jpg
Processes level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).Controlling Sea-LevelChange

  • Relative sea-level changes


Land subsidence mexico city l.jpg
Land Subsidence Mexico City level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

Source: http://ga.water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgwlandsubside.html


Subsidence in mexico city and the chalco plain l.jpg
Subsidence in Mexico City and the Chalco Plain level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

Source: Adapted from Ortega et al., 1993


Factors in local predictions l.jpg
Factors in Local Predictions level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

  • Relative sea level rise: global and regional components plus land movement

    • Land uplift can counter any global sea level rise

    • Land subsidence can exacerbate any global sea level rise

    • Other dynamic oceanic and climatic effects cause regional differences (oceanic circulation, wind and pressure, and ocean-water density differences add additional component)


Slide13 l.jpg

Sea Level Rise at New York City level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).1850 to 2100

IPCC TAR range

due to SRES emission scenarios

McCarthy et al., 2001


Other climate change hurricane katrina l.jpg
Other Climate Change level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).(Hurricane Katrina)

Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2005/aug/hazards.html


Slide15 l.jpg

Gulfport, Mississippi, July 05 level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).


Grand casino gulfport 21 sept 2005 l.jpg
Grand Casino, Gulfport 21 Sept 2005 level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).


Caman peru and tsunami vulnerability l.jpg
Caman, Peru, and Tsunami Vulnerability level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html


Atolls belize l.jpg
Atolls, Belize level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

Source: http://home.swbell.net/skyisles/islands.html


Coral impacts l.jpg
Coral Impacts level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

  • “Recent global increases in reef ecosystem degradation and mortality are exceeding the adaptive capacity of coral reef organisms and communities. The severity of this crisis will only intensify with future changes in the global climate.

  • While the net effects of climate change on coral reefs will be negative, coral reef organisms and communities are not necessarily doomed to total extinction.

  • Multiple environmental management strategies, from local to global, will be necessary to ensure the long-term sustainability of the world’s coral reef ecosystems.”

Buddemeier et al, 2004


Slide20 l.jpg

Population and Population Density vs. Distance and Elevation level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).in 1990


Coastal megacities 8 million people forecast for 2010 l.jpg

Tianjin level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

Dhaka

Seoul

Osaka

Istanbul

Tokyo

New York

Shanghai

Los Angeles

Manila

Bangkok

Lagos

Mumbai

Lima

Karachi

Madras

Jakarta

Rio de Janeiro

Buenos Aires

Calcutta

Coastal Megacities (>8 million people)Forecast for 2010


Rio de janeiro s waterfront 1919 l.jpg
Rio de Janeiro's waterfront, 1919 level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rio_de_Janeiro%27s_waterfront%2C_1919.jpg


Rio de janeiro brazil l.jpg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rio_de_Janeiro-Ipanema_Beach.jpg


Havana cuba l.jpg
Havana, Cuba level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html


Slide25 l.jpg

Controls on Coastal Position level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

antecedent

sea-level

littoral sediment

change

physiography

supply (±ve)

boundary conditions (external)

fluvial-delta inlet bypassing

C

D

resuspension & inlet bypassing

lagoon basin mud

mid-shelf mud

lower shoreface

backbarrier

marine sand wedge

inner-shelf sand

A

B

cross-shelf

bypassing

upper

shoreface

inlet

transport

coastal tract


Rio de la plata l.jpg
Rio de la Plata level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html


Seawifs sediment plumes off the coast of chile l.jpg
SeaWiFS: sediment plumes off the coast of Chile level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

http://www.intute.ac.uk/sciences/worldguide/html/824_satellite.html


Beach erosion barbados l.jpg
Beach Erosion, Barbados level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

Before Storm After Storm

Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm


Biogeophysical effects of sea level rise l.jpg
Biogeophysical Effects level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).of Sea Level Rise

  • Displacement of coastal lowlands and wetlands

  • Increased coastal erosion

  • Increased flooding (frequency and depth)

  • Salinization of surface and groundwaters

  • Plus others


Ecosystem loss l.jpg
Ecosystem Loss level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

  • Inundation and displacement of wetlands

    • e.g., mangroves, saltmarsh, intertidal areas

  • Areas provide

    • Flood protection

    • Nursery areas for fisheries

    • Important for nature conservation

  • Loss of valuable resources, tourism


Coastal ecosystems at risk l.jpg
Coastal Ecosystems at Risk level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

  • KEY:

  • mangroves, o saltmarsh, x coral reefs


Reefs and mangroves latin america and caribbean l.jpg
Reefs and Mangroves, Latin America and Caribbean level rise, including relevant interacting factors. Some factors (e.g., sediment supply) appear twice because they may be influenced by both climate and nonclimate factors (adapted from Nicholls, 2002).

http://www.unep-wcmc.org/marine/data/coral_mangrove/marine_maps_main.html


United nations environment programme interactive mapping tool l.jpg
United Nations Environment Programme Interactive Mapping Tool

Source: http://bure.unep-wcmc.org/imaps/marine/mangroves/viewer.htm



Coastal squeeze of coastal wetlands l.jpg
Coastal Squeeze Tool(of coastal wetlands)

Sea Level Rise

(a) no hard defenses

(b) hard defenses


Socioeconomic impacts l.jpg
Socioeconomic Impacts Tool

  • Loss of property and land

  • Increased flood risk/loss of life

  • Damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure

  • Loss of renewable and subsistence resources

  • Loss of tourism, recreation, and coastal habitats

  • Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality



Responding to coastal change including sea level rise l.jpg
Responding to Coastal Change Tool(including sea level rise)

  • Retreat

  • Accommodation

  • Protect

    • Soft

    • Hard


Adaptation methods l.jpg
Adaptation Methods Tool

  • Retreat

    • Managed retreat

    • Relocation from high risk zones

  • Accommodation

    • Public awareness

    • Natural disaster management planning


Adaptation methods continued l.jpg
Adaptation Methods Tool(continued)

  • Protect

    • Hard options

      • Revetments, breakwaters, groins

      • Floodgates, tidal barriers

    • Soft options

      • Beach/wetland nourishment

      • Dune restoration


Beach nourishment nevis l.jpg
Beach Nourishment, Nevis Tool

Eroded Beach Re-nourished Beach

Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm


Example approach to adaptation measures l.jpg
Example Approach to ToolAdaptation Measures

  • Climate change predictions

    • Rise in sea level

    • Increase in number and intensity of tropical weather systems

    • Increase in severity of storm surges

    • Changes in rainfall


Example approach to adaptation measures continued l.jpg
Example Approach to Adaptation Measures Tool(continued)

  • Coastal impacts

    • Damage to property/infrastructure

    • Damage/loss of coastal/marine ecosystems

    • Destruction of hotels and tourism facilities

    • Increased risk of disease

    • Damage/loss of fisheries infrastructure

    • General loss of biodiversity

    • Submergence/inundation of coastal areas


Example approach to adaptation measures continued44 l.jpg
Example Approach to Adaptation Measures Tool(continued)

  • Adaptation (retreat, protect, accommodate)

    • Improved physical planning and development control

    • Strengthening/implementation of EIA regulations

    • Formulation of Coastal Zone Management Plan

    • Monitoring of coastal habitats, including beaches

    • Formulation of national climate change policy

    • Public awareness and education




Coastal vulnerability assessment l.jpg
Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Tool

  • Principles

  • Older tools

  • Top down

  • Bottom up


Methods to assess impacts of sea level rise l.jpg
Methods to Assess Impacts Toolof Sea Level Rise

  • Sea level rise & climate change scenarios

  • Screening assessment

  • Erosion

  • Flooding

  • Top-down

  • Bottom up


Screening assessment l.jpg
Screening Assessment Tool

  • Rapid assessment to highlight possible impacts of a sea level rise scenario and identify information/data gaps

  • Qualitative or semiquantitative

  • Steps

    • Collation of existing coastal data

    • Assessment of the possible impacts of a high sea level rise scenario

    • Implications of future development

    • Possible responses to the problems caused by sea level rise


Step 1 collation of existing data l.jpg
Step 1: Collation of ToolExisting Data

  • Topographic surveys

  • Aerial/remote sensing images – topography/ land cover

  • Coastal geomorphology classification

  • Evidence of subsidence

  • Long-term relative sea level rise

  • Magnitude and damage caused by flooding

  • Coastal erosion

  • Population density

  • Activities located on the coast (cities, ports, resort areas and tourist beaches, industrial and agricultural areas)


Step 2 assessment of possible impacts of high scenario sea level rise l.jpg
Step 2: Assessment of Possible Impacts of High Scenario Sea Level Rise

  • Four impacts are considered

  • Increased storm flooding

  • Beach/bluff erosion

  • Wetland and mangrove inundation and loss

  • Salt water intrusion


Step 3 implications of future developments l.jpg
Step 3: Implications of Future Developments Level Rise

  • New and existing river dams and impacts on downstream deltas

  • New coastal settlements

  • Expansion of coastal tourism

  • Possibility of transmigration


Step 4 responses to the sea level rise impacts l.jpg
Step 4: Responses to the Level RiseSea Level Rise Impacts

  • Planned retreat (i.e., setback of defenses)

  • Accommodate (i.e., raise buildings above flood levels)

  • Protect (i.e., hard and soft defenses, seawalls, beach nourishment)


Screening assessment matrix biophysical vs socioeconomic impacts l.jpg
Screening Assessment Matrix Level RiseBiophysical vs. Socioeconomic Impacts


Beach erosion anguilla l.jpg
Beach Erosion, Anguilla Level Rise

Pre Hurricane Post Hurricane

Source: http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm


Bruun rule l.jpg
Bruun “Rule” Level Rise


Limitations of the bruun rule l.jpg
Limitations of the Level RiseBruun “Rule”

  • Only describes one of the processes affecting sandy beaches

  • Indirect effect of mean sea level rise

    • Estuaries and inlets maintain equilibrium

    • Act as major sinks

    • Sand eroded from adjacent coast

    • Increased erosion rates

  • Response time – best applied over long timescales


Flooding l.jpg
Flooding Level Rise

  • Increase in flood levels due to rise in sea level

  • Increase in flood risk

  • Increase in populations in coastal floodplain

  • Adaptation

    • Increase in flood protection

    • Management and planning in floodplain



Global impacts of coastal flooding in 2050 effects of mitigation l.jpg
Global Impacts of Coastal Flooding in 2050 – Effects of Mitigation

People flooded (Millions/yr)


The thames barrier l.jpg
The Thames Barrier Mitigation


Flood methodology l.jpg
Flood Methodology Mitigation


Models l.jpg
Models Mitigation

  • Top Down

    • DIVA: Dynamic and Interaction Vulnerability Assessment from DINAS-Coast Project

  • Older Models

    • COSMO

    • RamCo

    • Common Methodology

  • Integrated Models

    • RegIS2 : Development of a metamodel tool for regional integrated climate change management

  • Bottom-up approaches


Saltmarsh losses to 2050 l.jpg
Saltmarsh Losses to 2050 Mitigation

Present day loss rate

Low Climate

Change

High Climate

Change


Bottom up models l.jpg
Bottom Up Models Mitigation

  • Detailed local assessments

  • UK erosion assessment

  • Australian approaches

  • Relative assessment approach ‘Pacific Methodology’


Approach selection l.jpg
Approach Selection Mitigation

  • ‘Relative’ vs ‘absolute assessments’

  • Pragmatic approach and selection

  • Example selection criteria:

    • Type of coast

    • Management issues

    • Time/budget

    • Access to expertise & data

    • Integration into adaptation


Uk planning assessment l.jpg
UK Planning Assessment Mitigation

  • Ongoing investigation and formulation of policy

  • Requires information on

    • Role of major processes in sediment budget

      • Including human influences

      • Other climate change impacts

  • Example of assessment from the UK

  • Combined flood hazard and erosion assessment


Erosion often exported alongshore l.jpg
Erosion MitigationOften Exported Alongshore


Goals for planning assessment l.jpg
Goals for Planning Assessment Mitigation

  • For future climate and protection scenarios, explore interactions between cliff management and flood risk within sediment sub-cell (in Northeast Norfolk)

  • In particular, quantify

    • Cliff retreat and associated impacts

    • Longshore sediment supply/beach size

    • Flood risk

    • Integrated flood and erosion assessment



Bathymetry and wave modelling l.jpg
Bathymetry and MitigationWave Modelling

Offshore sandbank

Nearshore

sandbank


Future policy maintain defenses 6 mm yr sea level rise l.jpg
Future Policy MitigationMaintain Defenses, 6 mm/yr Sea Level Rise

Sheringham

Cromer

Overstrand

Trimmingham

Mundesley

Bacton

Happisburgh


Erosion visualization protection abandoned 10 year time steps l.jpg
Erosion Visualization MitigationProtection Abandoned (10 year time steps)


Slide76 l.jpg

10 Mitigation

100

C

A

D

erosion

accretion

R=S(L/(B+h))=(S)1/tanØ

B

E

Australian Coastal Vulnerability Approaches

Kay et al, 2005. Graphics by Colin Woodroffe.


Probabilistic beach erosion l.jpg
Probabilistic Beach Erosion Mitigation

Cowell et al (in press)



Slide79 l.jpg

Engineers Australia Approach Mitigation

National assessment

Local assessment

Higher sea level

Estuary

Beach

Coral bleaching

Engineers Australia (2004) in Kay et al, 2005. Graphics by Colin Woodroffe.


Relative assessment l.jpg
Relative Assessment Mitigation

From Kay & Hay, 1993


Group consultation processes l.jpg
Group Consultation Processes Mitigation

  • Expert consensus building

  • Stakeholder engagement processes

  • Can be as structured or unstructured as required


Climate change adaptation through integrated risk reduction l.jpg
Climate Change Adaptation Through Integrated Risk Reduction Mitigation

http://www.waikato.ac.nz/igci/ccairr/ccairr.htm


Barriers to conducting vulnerability assessments l.jpg
Barriers to Conducting Vulnerability Assessments Mitigation

  • Incomplete knowledge of the relevant processes affected by sea level rise and their interactions

  • Insufficient data on existing physical conditions

  • Difficulty in developing the local and regional scenarios of future changes

  • Lack of appropriate analytical methodologies

  • Variety of questions raised by different socio-political conditions


Data sources l.jpg
Data Sources Mitigation

  • IPCC Data Distribution Centre

  • Sea level data

    • Permanent service for mean sea level

    • GLOSS – Global Sea-Level Observing System

  • Remotely sensed data

    • Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Centre (NASA)

    • Shuttle radar topography mission

  • Coastal data

    • Global mapping e.g. http://www.unep-wcmc.org

    • Coastal specialists in your region e.g. Un


Gloss tide gauges l.jpg
GLOSS Tide Gauges Mitigation

http://ioc3.unesco.org/gloss-south-america/


Gtopo30 global digital elevation model l.jpg
GTOPO30 MitigationGlobal Digital Elevation Model


Data sources87 l.jpg
Data Sources Mitigation

  • Local observational data

    • Sea level measurements

    • Elevation/topography

    • Wave recording

    • Aerial photography

    • Habitat mapping


Integrating mechanisms integrated coastal zone management iczm l.jpg

Integrating Mechanisms Mitigation

Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)


Basic features of iczm l.jpg
Basic Features of ICZM Mitigation

  • Establishes institutions designed to overcome sectoral fragmentation

  • Promotes harmonization & consistency of decisions, but does not supplant sectoral management

  • Recognizes the distinctive, interrelated nature of watersheds, the coast, and ocean

Source: Jim Good


Global iczm activity l.jpg
Global ICZM Activity Mitigation

From Sorensen 1993, 1997, 2000, 2002


Wide range of literature l.jpg
Wide range of literature Mitigation

  • Books

  • Papers

  • Websites




Example mitigation policy western australia 2003 l.jpg
Example mitigation policy - Western Australia (2003) Mitigation

  • “These setback guidelines provide direction for the siting of development, including subdivision and strata subdivision, on the Western Australian coast as defined in this Policy.

  • The specific objectives of these guidelines are to provide a setback that protects development from coastal processes by:

    • absorbing the impact of a severe storm sequence;

    • allowing for shoreline movement;

    • allowing for global sea level rise; and

    • allowing for the fluctuation of natural coastal processes. “


Western australian coastal policy bruun rule component l.jpg
Western Australian Coastal Policy - Bruun Rule Component Mitigation

  • “The setback to allow for sea level rise is based on the mean of the median model of the latest Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group (currently, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC Working Group, January 2001). The vertical change predicted by the current model between the years of 2000 and 2100 is 0.38 m. A multiplier of 100, based on the Bruun Rule shall be used and gives a value for 38 m for sandy shores. For other shore types, this factor shall be assessed in regard to local geography.”


Recap l.jpg
Recap Mitigation

  • Drivers & impacts on coastal areas

  • Adaptation options

  • V&A tools & data sources

  • Integrating mechanisms

  • Conclusions


Concluding remarks l.jpg
Concluding Remarks Mitigation

  • Sea level rise could be a serious problem, but the uncertainties are large

  • Impacts are strongly influenced by human choice

  • Reducing GHG emissions reduces but does not avoid sea level rise impacts

  • Preparing to adapt would seem prudent, in the context of multiple stresses and managing existing problems


ad