IMBER-JAPAN related programs “Population outbreak of marine life” and “Global Warming project” N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K.

1. 01/25 IMBER-JAPAN related programs “Population outbreak of marine life” and “Global Warming project” N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA) • Contents • 1. Introduction of IMBER related programs (1sheet) • 2. "Population outbreak of marine life“ (18sheets) • Jelly fish prediction&Physical- ecological model • 3. “Global Warming project” (4sheets) • Future prediction of pelagic fish • 4. Suggestions for GODAE-IMBER collaboration (1sheet)

2. 02/25 Introduction of IMBER-JAPAN related programs 1. “Population outbreak of marine life” elucidate the mechanism of extreme increase of marine life population (like sardine, jellyfish). 2007-2012, 14 million EURO year-1 2. “Global Warming project” elucidate the effect of global warming to the marine resources and predict the future status of them. 2002-2011, 7 million EURO year-1

3. 03/25 “Population outbreak of marine life” project Theme 1 Fish species alternation caused by climate change. Theme 2 Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change. Sometimes marine life populations show abrupt increase or decrease. There are several hypothesis to explain such kind of change e.g. bottom up, top down and wasp-waist control. However, the mechanism is still unclear. Moreover, dominant forcing is natural in some cases, while that is anthropogenic in the other cases. This project focus on population outbreaks and elucidate the mechanism of them. There are two main themes. One is “Fish species alternation caused by climate change” and another is “Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change”.

4. 04/25 Issue of giant jellyfish Recently, Japan have faced to big issue of giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai. The giant jellyfish are advected from the coastal regions of the Yellow Sea and the northern East China Sea to the Japan Sea during summer and autumn. They stray into the set fishing net in the coast and damage coastal fisheries seriously. Nemopilema nomurai Giant jellyfish is a big issue in Japan and several programs have been already started. We introduce one example of giant jellyfish prediction conducted under Japan Fisheries Agency international program. 2m weight:150kg

5. 05/25 Prediction of giant jellyfish migration courtesy of K. Komatsu Prediction in the Japan Sea “JADE” (based on RIAMOM), 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg, Kalman filter for SSH FRA + Kyushu Univ. source Prediction in the Northwestern Pacific, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea “FRA-JCOPE”, 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg IAU for SSH, SST, hydrographic data FRA + JAMSTEC

6. 06/25 Year to year variation (prediction) 2004 courtesy of K. Komatsu initial condition is based on the observations 2005 2006 15 Jun. 15 Jul. 30 Jul. Interannual variations of migration route were simulated.

7. 07/25 Example of prediction 5 Jul. (from 05 July to 25 July) There is a rapid connecting window in the yellow sea (region 5). 15 Jul. 25 Jul. This is only a simple example of jellyfish prediction. Under the project, the relationship between anthropogenic environmental change and increase of jellyfish will be investigated. courtesy of K. Komatsu

8. 08/25 Issue of species alternation of pelagic fish sardine anchovy mackerels Large scale fluctuations in the populations of sardines and anchovies have been observed during the past century. Their amplitude is high and contributes a disproportionate share of the total variability of the world harvest of fish. There are several intensive fishery grounds for sardine and anchovy andsardine and anchovy show asynchrony in all areas.e.g.) Benguela, California, Humboldt, Kuroshio- Oyashio

9. 09/25 Sardine landing Moreover, sardine shows synchrony in the whole Pacific (Humboldt, California, and Kuroshio areas) during 20th century. ○California △Chilean ●Kuroshio (Kawasaki's FAO) The same trend in the whole Pacific

10. 10/25 Climate index and the species alternation On the other hand, sardine does not show any synchrony between Pacific and Atlantic. The asynchrony between sardine and anchovy reflects not only the differences of their life histories, but also bottom-up process driven by climate shifts. The synchrony of sardine population in the whole Pacific also suggests a bottom-up, climate driven component. Conduct physical-biological interdisciplinary observation • Positive PDO (1976-87) • = “Sardine Dominant Regime” • High PP in West, Low PP in CC • Faster Kuroshio and Slower CC Negative PDO (1945-75) = “Anchovy Dominant Regime” Chavez (2003)

11. 11/25 Focus area: Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone SST in the south of Kuroshio Extension shows high correlation with mortality of juvenile sardine. Noto & Yasuda (1999) SSTanomaly Mortalityanomaly We will investigate how does the SST in the south of KE relate to sardine mortality. Scenario 1 SST decrease means @ spin down of KE enhancement of @ eddy activity, @ northward transport. Scenario 2 Cold SST generates @ deep mixed layer enhancement of @ primary production. courtesy of A. Yatsu

12. 12/25 Intensive observation in the K-O region Oyashio DO-Chl.a- Glider Streamer Warm Core Ring Ship observation DO-Chl.a- ARGO Kuroshio Recirculaton

13. 13/25 Modeling approach An ecosystem model “NEMURO(North pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography)” was developed by CCCC/MODEL task team of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization). More than 40 papers were already published.1.Time-series station(e.g., Fujii et al., 2002, 2007; Smith et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2003, 2007)2.Mesoscale Iron fertilization experiment(e.g., Fujii et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2005)3.Global 3-D model for interannual variation(e.g., Aita et al., 2003, 2007) 4.Regional 3-D model for the global warming(e.g., Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007) 4Det 3Nut 3Zoo 2Phyt Yamanaka et al., 2004

14. 14/25 Extended NEMURO (eNEMURO)Introducing subtropical plankton and new temp. dep. Yoshie et al in prep.

15. 15/25 Examples of NEMURO and eNEMURO Both NEMURO and eNEMURO well reproduced the seasonal changes observed in the subarctic region. Basically, the same performance

16. 16/25 NEMURO For Including Saury and HerringNEMURO.FISH Megrey et al. (2007) Ito et al. (2004) Please see detail on “NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH” special issueon Ecol. Modelling, 202(1-2), 2007. edited by M. J. Kishi, B. A. Megrey, S. Ito, F. E. Werner

17. 17/25 Example of NEMURO.FISH Wet weight of Pacific saury NEMURO.FISH successfully reproduced realistic growth of Pacific saury. Model Obs. Terms of the bioenergetics equation NEMURO.FISH successfully estimated realistic consumption rate of Pacific saury. Obs. consumption consumption respiration egg production egestion excretion dynamic action (Ito et al., 2004)

18. 18/25 Application of NEMURO.FISH toSardine & Anchovy NEMURO.SAN Hold a workshop at Tokyo in Nov. 2005 to compare 4 current pelagic ecosystems; California, Benguela, Humboldt, Kuroshio-Oyashio. Agreed to develop NEMURO.SAN. Supported by FRA, APN, PICES, GLOBEC, IAI

19. 19/25 NEMURO.SAN • Biological extensions: • Two species (sardine and anchovy) • Individual-based • Full life-cycle • Dynamic predator on sardine and anchovy • Spatial extensions: • Grid of cells Anchovy Sardine Predator NEMURO Rose et al. (in prep.)

20. 20/25 Example of NEMURO.SAN Year 1 10 20 30 40 50 Anchovy Sardine Predator Rose et al. (in prep.)

21. 21/25 “Global Warming project” monitoring in-situ data A-line，O-line，CK-line satellite data validation validation NEMURO eNEMURO global model nesting retrospective analysis validation high-resolution model NEMURO.FISH validation Future prediction

22. 22/25 Future prediction of Pacific saury Wet weight of Pacific saury Current Predicted wet weight of saury decreases about 10 g than current. 2050 Egg production of Pacific saury However, the egg production is predicted to increase. 2050 Current Ito et al. (2007)

23. 23/25 Future prediction of Pacific saury (cont.) These changes are caused by change in the migration route. Saury does not migrate to the Kuroshio region in the first winter. Since the prey density in the interfrontal region is much higherthan those in the Kuroshio region, saury is able to product much eggs. current 2050 Oyashio inter-frontal zone Kuroshio Ito et al. (2007)

24. 24/25 Future perspective • NEMURO.SAN coupled with 3D-NEMURO • Future prediction • Fish species alternation NEMURO.SAN + 3D-NEMURO + data assimilation Example of 3D-NEMURO.FISH Population of Pacific Saury Feb. Oct. Weight and adv.+ mig. Feb. Oct. Shido et al. (submitted)

25. 25/25 Suggestions to GODAE-IMBER collaboration • Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone is one of the key areas for GODAE-IMBER collaboration • The K-O region is one of the most attractive fields to elucidate relationship between ocean condition and marine ecosystem. • Japan conducts several big observational programs in this region. • DO-Chl.a-ARGO & Glider will be deployed under those programs. • Physical-biological (including fish) coupled model have been applied in this region.

26. Details of models

27. Governing equations of diatom in NEMURO

28. Physiological parameters in eNEMURO In eNEMURO, phytoplankton is categorized four groups by temperature and nutrient dependencies of physiological parameters: subarctic, subtropical and global types.

29. 10/15 Applications to three regions around Japan Box model version of NEMURO and eNEMURO were applied to 3 stations, OY (subarctic), B1 (subtropical)and CK11 (cont. shelf) under boundary conditions based on observation. St. CK11

30. Seasonal changes in the subtropical region Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO,especially in the reproduction of zooplankton. Diatomis too high PS& PMare dominant ZLis overestimated ZS+Bac& ZMare dominant

31. Simulated seasonal changes at CK11 (cont.shelf) Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO.Overestimations of phytoplankton and zooplankton arereduced. Total-phyt Is overestimated ZL+ZP Is overestimated

32. Bioenergetics Model for herring and saury change of weight P: egg production C: consumption E: excretion R: respiration (loses through metabolism) F: egestion S: specific dynamic action (digesting food)

33. Assumptions in NEMURO.SAN • Mortality • Fishing: age specific • Egg to age1: implicit in spawner – recruit relationship • Natural: constant + predator dependent • Predator • Do not grow or die • Move based on neighboring cell with highest prey biomass (anchovy + sardine) • Daily mortality rate of anchovy and sardine individuals in a cell is proportional to predator biomass in that cell • Reproduction • For simplicity, use spawner-recruit relationship • sardine: Jan.1-Sep.7, anchovy: Jan.1-May.30 • Individuals mature at age-2 • sardine：35.7g, anchovy: 10.5g