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01/25. IMBER-JAPAN related programs “Population outbreak of marine life” and “Global Warming project” N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA). Contents 1. Introduction of IMBER related programs (1sheet) 2. "Population outbreak of marine life“ (18sheets)

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01/25

IMBER-JAPAN related programs

“Population outbreak of marine life” and

“Global Warming project”

N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA)

  • Contents

  • 1. Introduction of IMBER related programs (1sheet)

  • 2. "Population outbreak of marine life“ (18sheets)

  • Jelly fish prediction&Physical- ecological model

  • 3. “Global Warming project” (4sheets)

  • Future prediction of pelagic fish

  • 4. Suggestions for GODAE-IMBER collaboration (1sheet)


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02/25

Introduction of IMBER-JAPAN related programs

1. “Population outbreak of marine life”

elucidate the mechanism of extreme increase of

marine life population (like sardine, jellyfish).

2007-2012, 14 million EURO year-1

2. “Global Warming project”

elucidate the effect of global warming to the marine resources and predict the future status of them.

2002-2011, 7 million EURO year-1


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03/25

“Population outbreak of marine life” project

Theme 1

Fish species alternation caused by climate change.

Theme 2

Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change.

Sometimes marine life populations show abrupt increase or decrease. There are several hypothesis to explain such kind of change e.g. bottom up, top down and wasp-waist control. However, the mechanism is still unclear. Moreover, dominant forcing is natural in some cases, while that is anthropogenic in the other cases.

This project focus on population outbreaks and elucidate the mechanism of them. There are two main themes. One is “Fish species alternation caused by climate change” and another is “Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change”.


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04/25

Issue of giant jellyfish

Recently, Japan have faced to big issue of giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai.

The giant jellyfish are advected from the coastal regions of the Yellow Sea and the northern East China Sea to the Japan Sea during summer and autumn.

They stray into the set fishing net in the coast and damage coastal fisheries seriously.

Nemopilema nomurai

Giant jellyfish is a big issue in Japan and several programs have been already started.

We introduce one example of giant jellyfish prediction conducted under Japan Fisheries Agency international program.

2m

weight:150kg


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05/25

Prediction of giant jellyfish migration

courtesy of K. Komatsu

Prediction in the Japan Sea

“JADE” (based on RIAMOM),

1/12 deg X 1/12 deg,

Kalman filter for SSH

FRA + Kyushu Univ.

source

Prediction in the Northwestern Pacific,

Yellow Sea, and East China Sea

“FRA-JCOPE”, 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg

IAU for SSH, SST, hydrographic data

FRA + JAMSTEC


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06/25

Year to year variation (prediction)

2004

courtesy of K. Komatsu

initial condition is based on the observations

2005

2006

15 Jun.

15 Jul.

30 Jul.

Interannual variations of migration route were simulated.


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07/25

Example of prediction

5 Jul.

(from 05 July to 25 July)

There is a rapid connecting window in the yellow sea (region 5).

15 Jul.

25 Jul.

This is only a simple example of jellyfish prediction.

Under the project, the relationship between anthropogenic environmental change and increase of jellyfish will be investigated.

courtesy of K. Komatsu


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08/25

Issue of species alternation of pelagic fish

sardine

anchovy

mackerels

Large scale fluctuations in the populations of sardines and anchovies have been observed during the past century. Their amplitude is high and contributes a disproportionate share of the total variability of the world harvest of fish. There are several intensive fishery grounds for sardine and anchovy andsardine and anchovy show asynchrony in all areas.e.g.) Benguela, California, Humboldt, Kuroshio- Oyashio


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09/25

Sardine landing

Moreover, sardine shows synchrony in the whole Pacific (Humboldt, California, and Kuroshio areas)

during 20th century.

○California

△Chilean

●Kuroshio

(Kawasaki's FAO)

The same trend in the whole Pacific


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10/25

Climate index and the species alternation

On the other hand, sardine does not show any synchrony between Pacific and Atlantic.

The asynchrony between sardine and anchovy reflects not only the differences of their life histories, but also bottom-up process driven by climate shifts. The synchrony of sardine population in the whole Pacific also suggests a bottom-up, climate driven component.

Conduct physical-biological interdisciplinary observation

  • Positive PDO (1976-87)

  • = “Sardine Dominant Regime”

  • High PP in West, Low PP in CC

  • Faster Kuroshio and Slower CC

Negative PDO (1945-75)

= “Anchovy Dominant Regime”

Chavez (2003)


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11/25

Focus area: Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone

SST in the south of Kuroshio Extension shows high correlation with mortality of juvenile sardine.

Noto & Yasuda (1999)

SSTanomaly

Mortalityanomaly

We will investigate how does the SST in the south of KE relate to sardine mortality.

Scenario 1

SST decrease means

@ spin down of KE

enhancement of

@ eddy activity,

@ northward transport.

Scenario 2

Cold SST generates

@ deep mixed layer

enhancement of

@ primary production.

courtesy of A. Yatsu


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12/25

Intensive observation in the K-O region

Oyashio

DO-Chl.a-

Glider

Streamer

Warm Core Ring

Ship

observation

DO-Chl.a- ARGO

Kuroshio

Recirculaton


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13/25

Modeling approach

An ecosystem model “NEMURO(North pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography)” was developed by CCCC/MODEL task team of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization).

More than 40 papers were already published.1.Time-series station(e.g., Fujii et al., 2002, 2007; Smith et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2003, 2007)2.Mesoscale Iron fertilization experiment(e.g., Fujii et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2005)3.Global 3-D model for interannual variation(e.g., Aita et al., 2003, 2007)

4.Regional 3-D model for the global warming(e.g., Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007)

4Det

3Nut

3Zoo

2Phyt

Yamanaka et al., 2004


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14/25

Extended NEMURO (eNEMURO)Introducing subtropical plankton and new temp. dep.

Yoshie et al in prep.


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15/25

Examples of NEMURO and eNEMURO

Both NEMURO and eNEMURO well reproduced the seasonal changes observed in the subarctic region.

Basically, the same performance


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16/25

NEMURO For Including Saury and HerringNEMURO.FISH

Megrey et al. (2007)

Ito et al. (2004)

Please see detail on “NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH” special issueon Ecol. Modelling, 202(1-2), 2007.

edited by M. J. Kishi, B. A. Megrey, S. Ito, F. E. Werner


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17/25

Example of NEMURO.FISH

Wet weight of Pacific saury

NEMURO.FISH successfully reproduced realistic growth of Pacific saury.

Model

Obs.

Terms of the bioenergetics equation

NEMURO.FISH successfully estimated realistic consumption rate of Pacific saury.

Obs.

consumption

consumption

respiration

egg

production

egestion

excretion

dynamic

action

(Ito et al., 2004)


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18/25

Application of NEMURO.FISH toSardine & Anchovy

NEMURO.SAN

Hold a workshop at Tokyo in Nov. 2005 to compare 4 current pelagic ecosystems; California, Benguela, Humboldt, Kuroshio-Oyashio.

Agreed to develop NEMURO.SAN.

Supported by FRA, APN, PICES, GLOBEC, IAI


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19/25

NEMURO.SAN

  • Biological extensions:

    • Two species (sardine and anchovy)

    • Individual-based

    • Full life-cycle

    • Dynamic predator on sardine and anchovy

  • Spatial extensions:

    • Grid of cells

Anchovy

Sardine

Predator

NEMURO

Rose et al. (in prep.)


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20/25

Example of NEMURO.SAN

Year

1

10

20

30

40

50

Anchovy

Sardine

Predator

Rose et al. (in prep.)


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21/25

“Global Warming project”

monitoring in-situ data

A-line,O-line,CK-line

satellite data

validation

validation

NEMURO

eNEMURO

global model

nesting

retrospective analysis

validation

high-resolution model

NEMURO.FISH

validation

Future prediction


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22/25

Future prediction of Pacific saury

Wet weight of Pacific saury

Current

Predicted wet weight of saury decreases about 10 g than current.

2050

Egg production of Pacific saury

However, the egg production is predicted to increase.

2050

Current

Ito et al. (2007)


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23/25

Future prediction of Pacific saury (cont.)

These changes are caused by change in the migration route.

Saury does not migrate to the Kuroshio region in the first winter.

Since the prey density in the interfrontal region is much higherthan those in the Kuroshio region, saury is able to product much eggs.

current

2050

Oyashio

inter-frontal zone

Kuroshio

Ito et al. (2007)


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24/25

Future perspective

  • NEMURO.SAN coupled with 3D-NEMURO

  • Future prediction

  • Fish species alternation

    NEMURO.SAN + 3D-NEMURO + data assimilation

Example of 3D-NEMURO.FISH

Population of Pacific Saury

Feb.

Oct.

Weight and adv.+ mig.

Feb.

Oct.

Shido et al. (submitted)


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25/25

Suggestions to GODAE-IMBER collaboration

  • Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone is one of the key areas for GODAE-IMBER collaboration

  • The K-O region is one of the most attractive fields to elucidate relationship between ocean condition and marine ecosystem.

  • Japan conducts several big observational programs in this region.

  • DO-Chl.a-ARGO & Glider will be deployed under those programs.

  • Physical-biological (including fish) coupled model have been applied in this region.




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Physiological parameters in eNEMURO

In eNEMURO, phytoplankton is categorized four groups by temperature and nutrient dependencies of physiological parameters: subarctic, subtropical and global types.


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10/15

Applications to three regions around Japan

Box model version of NEMURO and eNEMURO were applied to 3 stations, OY (subarctic), B1 (subtropical)and CK11 (cont. shelf) under boundary conditions based on observation.

St. CK11


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Seasonal changes in the subtropical region

Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO,especially in the reproduction of zooplankton.

Diatomis too high

PS& PMare dominant

ZLis overestimated

ZS+Bac& ZMare dominant


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Simulated seasonal changes at CK11 (cont.shelf)

Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO.Overestimations of phytoplankton and zooplankton arereduced.

Total-phyt

Is overestimated

ZL+ZP

Is overestimated


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Bioenergetics Model for herring and saury

change of weight

P: egg production

C: consumption

E: excretion

R: respiration

(loses through metabolism)

F: egestion

S: specific dynamic action

(digesting food)


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Assumptions in NEMURO.SAN

  • Mortality

    • Fishing: age specific

    • Egg to age1: implicit in spawner – recruit relationship

    • Natural: constant + predator dependent

  • Predator

    • Do not grow or die

    • Move based on neighboring cell with highest prey biomass (anchovy + sardine)

    • Daily mortality rate of anchovy and sardine individuals in a cell is proportional to predator biomass in that cell

  • Reproduction

    • For simplicity, use spawner-recruit relationship

    • sardine: Jan.1-Sep.7, anchovy: Jan.1-May.30

    • Individuals mature at age-2

    • sardine:35.7g, anchovy: 10.5g


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