slide1
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
IMBER-JAPAN related programs “Population outbreak of marine life” and “Global Warming project” N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA)

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 33

details of models - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 217 Views
  • Uploaded on

01/25. IMBER-JAPAN related programs “Population outbreak of marine life” and “Global Warming project” N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA). Contents 1. Introduction of IMBER related programs (1sheet) 2. "Population outbreak of marine life“ (18sheets)

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'details of models' - niveditha


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

01/25

IMBER-JAPAN related programs

“Population outbreak of marine life” and

“Global Warming project”

N. Yoshie, H. Saito, K. Komatsu, S. Ito (FRA)

  • Contents
  • 1. Introduction of IMBER related programs (1sheet)
  • 2. "Population outbreak of marine life“ (18sheets)
  • Jelly fish prediction&Physical- ecological model
  • 3. “Global Warming project” (4sheets)
  • Future prediction of pelagic fish
  • 4. Suggestions for GODAE-IMBER collaboration (1sheet)
slide2

02/25

Introduction of IMBER-JAPAN related programs

1. “Population outbreak of marine life”

elucidate the mechanism of extreme increase of

marine life population (like sardine, jellyfish).

2007-2012, 14 million EURO year-1

2. “Global Warming project”

elucidate the effect of global warming to the marine resources and predict the future status of them.

2002-2011, 7 million EURO year-1

slide3

03/25

“Population outbreak of marine life” project

Theme 1

Fish species alternation caused by climate change.

Theme 2

Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change.

Sometimes marine life populations show abrupt increase or decrease. There are several hypothesis to explain such kind of change e.g. bottom up, top down and wasp-waist control. However, the mechanism is still unclear. Moreover, dominant forcing is natural in some cases, while that is anthropogenic in the other cases.

This project focus on population outbreaks and elucidate the mechanism of them. There are two main themes. One is “Fish species alternation caused by climate change” and another is “Jellyfish outbreak induced by anthropogenic environmental change”.

slide4

04/25

Issue of giant jellyfish

Recently, Japan have faced to big issue of giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai.

The giant jellyfish are advected from the coastal regions of the Yellow Sea and the northern East China Sea to the Japan Sea during summer and autumn.

They stray into the set fishing net in the coast and damage coastal fisheries seriously.

Nemopilema nomurai

Giant jellyfish is a big issue in Japan and several programs have been already started.

We introduce one example of giant jellyfish prediction conducted under Japan Fisheries Agency international program.

2m

weight:150kg

slide5

05/25

Prediction of giant jellyfish migration

courtesy of K. Komatsu

Prediction in the Japan Sea

“JADE” (based on RIAMOM),

1/12 deg X 1/12 deg,

Kalman filter for SSH

FRA + Kyushu Univ.

source

Prediction in the Northwestern Pacific,

Yellow Sea, and East China Sea

“FRA-JCOPE”, 1/12 deg X 1/12 deg

IAU for SSH, SST, hydrographic data

FRA + JAMSTEC

slide6

06/25

Year to year variation (prediction)

2004

courtesy of K. Komatsu

initial condition is based on the observations

2005

2006

15 Jun.

15 Jul.

30 Jul.

Interannual variations of migration route were simulated.

slide7

07/25

Example of prediction

5 Jul.

(from 05 July to 25 July)

There is a rapid connecting window in the yellow sea (region 5).

15 Jul.

25 Jul.

This is only a simple example of jellyfish prediction.

Under the project, the relationship between anthropogenic environmental change and increase of jellyfish will be investigated.

courtesy of K. Komatsu

slide8

08/25

Issue of species alternation of pelagic fish

sardine

anchovy

mackerels

Large scale fluctuations in the populations of sardines and anchovies have been observed during the past century. Their amplitude is high and contributes a disproportionate share of the total variability of the world harvest of fish. There are several intensive fishery grounds for sardine and anchovy andsardine and anchovy show asynchrony in all areas.e.g.) Benguela, California, Humboldt, Kuroshio- Oyashio

slide9

09/25

Sardine landing

Moreover, sardine shows synchrony in the whole Pacific (Humboldt, California, and Kuroshio areas)

during 20th century.

○California

△Chilean

●Kuroshio

(Kawasaki\'s FAO)

The same trend in the whole Pacific

slide10

10/25

Climate index and the species alternation

On the other hand, sardine does not show any synchrony between Pacific and Atlantic.

The asynchrony between sardine and anchovy reflects not only the differences of their life histories, but also bottom-up process driven by climate shifts. The synchrony of sardine population in the whole Pacific also suggests a bottom-up, climate driven component.

Conduct physical-biological interdisciplinary observation

  • Positive PDO (1976-87)
  • = “Sardine Dominant Regime”
  • High PP in West, Low PP in CC
  • Faster Kuroshio and Slower CC

Negative PDO (1945-75)

= “Anchovy Dominant Regime”

Chavez (2003)

slide11

11/25

Focus area: Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone

SST in the south of Kuroshio Extension shows high correlation with mortality of juvenile sardine.

Noto & Yasuda (1999)

SSTanomaly

Mortalityanomaly

We will investigate how does the SST in the south of KE relate to sardine mortality.

Scenario 1

SST decrease means

@ spin down of KE

enhancement of

@ eddy activity,

@ northward transport.

Scenario 2

Cold SST generates

@ deep mixed layer

enhancement of

@ primary production.

courtesy of A. Yatsu

slide12

12/25

Intensive observation in the K-O region

Oyashio

DO-Chl.a-

Glider

Streamer

Warm Core Ring

Ship

observation

DO-Chl.a- ARGO

Kuroshio

Recirculaton

slide13

13/25

Modeling approach

An ecosystem model “NEMURO(North pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography)” was developed by CCCC/MODEL task team of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization).

More than 40 papers were already published.1.Time-series station(e.g., Fujii et al., 2002, 2007; Smith et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2003, 2007)2.Mesoscale Iron fertilization experiment(e.g., Fujii et al., 2005; Yoshie et al., 2005)3.Global 3-D model for interannual variation(e.g., Aita et al., 2003, 2007)

4.Regional 3-D model for the global warming(e.g., Hashioka and Yamanaka, 2007)

4Det

3Nut

3Zoo

2Phyt

Yamanaka et al., 2004

slide14

14/25

Extended NEMURO (eNEMURO)Introducing subtropical plankton and new temp. dep.

Yoshie et al in prep.

slide15

15/25

Examples of NEMURO and eNEMURO

Both NEMURO and eNEMURO well reproduced the seasonal changes observed in the subarctic region.

Basically, the same performance

slide16

16/25

NEMURO For Including Saury and HerringNEMURO.FISH

Megrey et al. (2007)

Ito et al. (2004)

Please see detail on “NEMURO and NEMURO.FISH” special issueon Ecol. Modelling, 202(1-2), 2007.

edited by M. J. Kishi, B. A. Megrey, S. Ito, F. E. Werner

slide17

17/25

Example of NEMURO.FISH

Wet weight of Pacific saury

NEMURO.FISH successfully reproduced realistic growth of Pacific saury.

Model

Obs.

Terms of the bioenergetics equation

NEMURO.FISH successfully estimated realistic consumption rate of Pacific saury.

Obs.

consumption

consumption

respiration

egg

production

egestion

excretion

dynamic

action

(Ito et al., 2004)

slide18

18/25

Application of NEMURO.FISH toSardine & Anchovy

NEMURO.SAN

Hold a workshop at Tokyo in Nov. 2005 to compare 4 current pelagic ecosystems; California, Benguela, Humboldt, Kuroshio-Oyashio.

Agreed to develop NEMURO.SAN.

Supported by FRA, APN, PICES, GLOBEC, IAI

slide19

19/25

NEMURO.SAN

  • Biological extensions:
    • Two species (sardine and anchovy)
    • Individual-based
    • Full life-cycle
    • Dynamic predator on sardine and anchovy
  • Spatial extensions:
    • Grid of cells

Anchovy

Sardine

Predator

NEMURO

Rose et al. (in prep.)

slide20

20/25

Example of NEMURO.SAN

Year

1

10

20

30

40

50

Anchovy

Sardine

Predator

Rose et al. (in prep.)

slide21

21/25

“Global Warming project”

monitoring in-situ data

A-line,O-line,CK-line

satellite data

validation

validation

NEMURO

eNEMURO

global model

nesting

retrospective analysis

validation

high-resolution model

NEMURO.FISH

validation

Future prediction

slide22

22/25

Future prediction of Pacific saury

Wet weight of Pacific saury

Current

Predicted wet weight of saury decreases about 10 g than current.

2050

Egg production of Pacific saury

However, the egg production is predicted to increase.

2050

Current

Ito et al. (2007)

slide23

23/25

Future prediction of Pacific saury (cont.)

These changes are caused by change in the migration route.

Saury does not migrate to the Kuroshio region in the first winter.

Since the prey density in the interfrontal region is much higherthan those in the Kuroshio region, saury is able to product much eggs.

current

2050

Oyashio

inter-frontal zone

Kuroshio

Ito et al. (2007)

slide24

24/25

Future perspective

  • NEMURO.SAN coupled with 3D-NEMURO
  • Future prediction
  • Fish species alternation

NEMURO.SAN + 3D-NEMURO + data assimilation

Example of 3D-NEMURO.FISH

Population of Pacific Saury

Feb.

Oct.

Weight and adv.+ mig.

Feb.

Oct.

Shido et al. (submitted)

slide25

25/25

Suggestions to GODAE-IMBER collaboration

  • Kuroshio-Oyashio interfrontal zone is one of the key areas for GODAE-IMBER collaboration
  • The K-O region is one of the most attractive fields to elucidate relationship between ocean condition and marine ecosystem.
  • Japan conducts several big observational programs in this region.
  • DO-Chl.a-ARGO & Glider will be deployed under those programs.
  • Physical-biological (including fish) coupled model have been applied in this region.
physiological parameters in enemuro
Physiological parameters in eNEMURO

In eNEMURO, phytoplankton is categorized four groups by temperature and nutrient dependencies of physiological parameters: subarctic, subtropical and global types.

slide29

10/15

Applications to three regions around Japan

Box model version of NEMURO and eNEMURO were applied to 3 stations, OY (subarctic), B1 (subtropical)and CK11 (cont. shelf) under boundary conditions based on observation.

St. CK11

slide30

Seasonal changes in the subtropical region

Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO,especially in the reproduction of zooplankton.

Diatomis too high

PS& PMare dominant

ZLis overestimated

ZS+Bac& ZMare dominant

slide31

Simulated seasonal changes at CK11 (cont.shelf)

Performance of eNEMURO looks more reasonable than that of NEMURO.Overestimations of phytoplankton and zooplankton arereduced.

Total-phyt

Is overestimated

ZL+ZP

Is overestimated

slide32

Bioenergetics Model for herring and saury

change of weight

P: egg production

C: consumption

E: excretion

R: respiration

(loses through metabolism)

F: egestion

S: specific dynamic action

(digesting food)

slide33

Assumptions in NEMURO.SAN

  • Mortality
    • Fishing: age specific
    • Egg to age1: implicit in spawner – recruit relationship
    • Natural: constant + predator dependent
  • Predator
    • Do not grow or die
    • Move based on neighboring cell with highest prey biomass (anchovy + sardine)
    • Daily mortality rate of anchovy and sardine individuals in a cell is proportional to predator biomass in that cell
  • Reproduction
    • For simplicity, use spawner-recruit relationship
    • sardine: Jan.1-Sep.7, anchovy: Jan.1-May.30
    • Individuals mature at age-2
    • sardine:35.7g, anchovy: 10.5g
ad