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Astronomy Weather 101

Astronomy Weather 101. Bob Bunge Howard Astronomical League 8/16/2012. Weather 101. NOAA’s National Weather Service Collects data from around nation/world Assimilates that data into computer models Resulting forecast guidance is used by humans to create official NWS forecasts

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Astronomy Weather 101

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  1. Astronomy Weather 101 Bob Bunge Howard Astronomical League 8/16/2012

  2. Weather 101 • NOAA’s National Weather Service • Collects data from around nation/world • Assimilates that data into computer models • Resulting forecast guidance is used by humans to create official NWS forecasts • Models are also disseminated to partners who also create forecasts

  3. About NWS • National Weather Service is: • Part of NOAA, Part of Dept of Commerce • 122 forecast offices (ours is KLWX, Sterling, VA) • 11 River Forecast centers • 9 National centers (Hurricane, Storm, Space) • About 5,000 employees • $900 million budget

  4. Observations • Observations come from many sources: • Surface observations (2000 from airports) • Twice/daily balloon launches • Satellite sounding • Data from 158 doppler radars • Automated commercial aircraft observations • Surface, balloons, and others from around the world • Thousands of other surface sites, radar profilers • Experimental from autos, wind mills, others

  5. Computer Models • Observations are used to snapshot the state of the atmosphere. What does it look like? • Computer models use physics (numeric) • Many different types and relations: • GFS/WAFS • NAM • RUC • Statistical models add in historical data • MOS, LAMP

  6. More models • Models are run by weather agencies around the world. • US: NWS/NCEP/NCO/EMC • Europe: ECMWF (Exeter, UK) • Canada, Japan, China, all run models • Most also run ensembles to quantify uncertainly • Related models: air quality, plume, radiation, volcanic ash are a few

  7. Forecasting • Meteorology is the science, forecasting is the art • NWS human forecasters use models as guidance and attempt to add value, usually at a mesoscale level • Today, models and forecasts are “gridded” data • Forecasters use tools to tweak models • Computer code builds words from data • 5x5km or 2.5x2.5km resolution

  8. The Weather Enterprise • NWS disseminates raw model data to partners and academia • Partners produce many products and services • TV, Radio, niche markets, etc • $15 billion plus industry, 1000’s of jobs • Exports products and service to other countries

  9. Approach to Astro Weather • More than five days; Don’t bother • Watch the NWS point forecast starting a five days • Watch the NWS Gridded MOS at five days • Start reading NWS forecast discussion at three days for uncertainty • Watch CSC at 48 hours. Compare to GMOS • Watch dew point, wind speed on NWS point forecasts at 48 hours (hourly wx graphs) • Watch GOES images at 6 hours

  10. URLs • Point forecasts: http://www.weather.gov • GMOS: http://graphical.weather.gov/gmos/ • AFD: Off point forecast page • CSC: http://cleardarksky.com • Bob’s custom GOES images: http://www.ladyandtramp.com/

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