Towards the Development of a Predictive Model of Long-Term Care Demand For Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Dr Maev-Ann Wren, Economic and Social Research Institute April 19 th 2013. Outline. Definitions, method, data, systems Population and disability
Predictive Model of Long-Term Care Demand For Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland
Dr Maev-Ann Wren,
Economic and Social Research Institute
April 19th 2013
Residential care homes & nursing care homes
Sheltered housing? Intermediate care facilities? Hospitals for older people? Delayed discharge from acute hospitals?
Home helps & personal care assistants
Meals on wheels? Day centres?
Spouse, partner, adult child, adult child’s partner, sibling, friend/neighbour
pure population increase vs declining disability
Pure population scenario omits second step
Source: Morgenroth (2009)
Source: Census 2002 and 2006
NB: Definitions of categories differ in RoI and NI
Increase in numbers of people aged 65 and over
Percentage of people aged 65 & over in residential long-term care
Percentage of people aged 65 & over receiving formal home care
Unmetneed, North and South
ADL difficulty and no help
‘No help’ pie slice on same basis, for other pie slices definitions differ & North-South not comparable.