1 / 38

Observed and projected climate change – from global to local scale

www.bjerknes.uib.no. Observed and projected climate change – from global to local scale. Helge Drange helge.drange@gfi.uib.no. CO 2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii). CO 2 (parts per million). 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 1912. Change in heat content of ocean & land+atm+ice.

nitesh
Download Presentation

Observed and projected climate change – from global to local scale

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. www.bjerknes.uib.no Observed and projected climate change –from global to local scale Helge Drangehelge.drange@gfi.uib.no

  2. CO2 in air (from Mauna Loa, Hawaii) CO2 (parts per million)

  3. 2008

  4. 2009

  5. 2010

  6. 2011

  7. 2012

  8. 1912

  9. Change in heat content of ocean & land+atm+ice Change in heat (1022 J) Church et al (2011)

  10. Change in heat content of ocean & land+atm+ice Change in heat (1022 J) Church et al (2011)

  11. Earth´s climate is changing Main reason is our use of coal, oil and gas

  12. Possible future uncertainty ≠ no certainty

  13. Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961-1990)

  14. Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961-1990) +2 °C 2025-2050 In 2100: Global: 4.0-5.8 °C Land: 5.0-8.5 °C Future emissions as today (“Business-as-usual”)

  15. Change in global temperature, 15 models (relative to 1961-1990) +2 °C 2035-2075 In 2100: Global: 2.0-3.0 °C Land: 2.1-4.8 °C For a global, mean warming of ~2 °C, which we can expect sometime during second half of the 21st century, Earth's climate is comparable to the climate ~3.2 mill years ago Global emission top in 2040, 650 ppm CO2-eq in 2100

  16. Drought index based on 14 climate models (2090-2099; RCP4.5) Severe to extreme drought Incr soil moisture Dai, Nature Clim. Change (2012)

  17. Over to local scale (where we all live) Much harder to do local than continental/global climate projections! Harder to make projections of precipitation than temperature Very hard to make projections about local changes in extremes

  18. Western Norway, 14 September 2005

  19. 14 Sep 2005 For Bergen: +30 to +70 % increase in extreme precipitation by the end of the century

  20. Photo: Jan M. Lillebø, Bergens Tidende Sea level

  21. Warming of the ocean May contribute 15-20 cm in this century Total: +40 to +80 cm in 2100 Cont’d increase “forever” Glaciers melting May contribute 15-20 cm in this century Greenland and Antarctica May contribute 10-40 cm in this century (large uncertainties)

  22. Estimated sea level rise (cm) along the coast of Norway, next 100 years (corresponding to a global sea level rise of 50-110 cm) About 1/3 of this rise by 2050 Drange m.fl. (2012)

  23. Sea level Will last for > 1000 yr

  24. 2-degree target

  25. 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO2-emissions (i) CO2-emissions from coal, oil and gas, 1950-2012 Global CO2-emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

  26. 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO2-emissions (ii) Reduced CO2-emissions from 2013 2013: − 7 % / yr Global CO2-emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

  27. 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO2-emissions (iii) Reduced CO2-emissions from 2017 2013: − 7 % / yr 2017: −11 % / yr Global CO2-emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

  28. 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO2-emissions (iv) Reduced CO2-emissions from 2021 2013: − 7 % / yr 2017: −11 % / yr 2021: −22 % / yr Global CO2-emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

  29. 2-degree target: Consequence of delaying cuts in CO2-emissions (v) Reduced CO2-emissions from 2025 2013: − 7 % / yr ? 2017: −11 % / yr 2021: −22 % / yr 2025: −90 % / yr Global CO2-emissions (Gt-C) Meinshausen et al. (2009), updated

  30. About 20 percent of today's CO2-emissions will remain in the atmosphere for 1000 years or more

  31. Slides and animations available from helge.drange@gfi.uib.no Earthrise, 24 Dec 1968 (credit: NASA)

More Related