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GTBD Forecasting Presentation to WMS. Using SCED to Produce Projections of Future LMPs. Floyd J. Trefny April 8, 2011. Topics. ERCOT System Load Examples Sunday, January 30, 2011 Thursday, February 3, 2011 GTBD Forecasting Methodology Analysis of Forecasting Errors Two Days

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Gtbd forecasting presentation to wms

GTBD ForecastingPresentation to WMS

Using SCED to Produce Projections of Future LMPs

Floyd J. Trefny

April 8, 2011


Topics

Topics

  • ERCOT System Load Examples

    • Sunday, January 30, 2011

    • Thursday, February 3, 2011

  • GTBD Forecasting Methodology

  • Analysis of Forecasting Errors

    • Two Days

    • February 5 through March 8, 2011

  • Implementation in SCED

  • Next Steps


Gtbd forecasting presentation to wms

Average Mw Change in Mw/Min over 15-minute SCED interval


Gtbd forecasting presentation to wms

Average Mw Change in Mw/Min over 15-minute SCED interval


Gtbd forecasting methodology

GTBD Forecasting Methodology

  • GTBD (Generation To Be Dispatched) is the sum of the Base Points dispatched in SCED

  • Typically, calculated by summing up the current actual generation from all the Generation Resources that are going to be dispatched by SCED

  • SCED LMPs are based on this amount of total power

  • A reasonable forecast of future GTBD can be calculated from:

    • System ramp rate sampled over the last fifteen minutes

      • Ramp rate may be positive or negative

    • Add: Real-Time SCED GTBD + (Ramp Rate*15) gives the “Forecasted GTBD”


Frequency of forecast error

Frequency of Forecast Error


Implementation in sced

Implementation in SCED

HUB

SUPER

HUB

HUB

HUB

  • In addition to the existing SCED, execute the same SCED algorithm, but using the Forecasted GTBD

  • Use same offer curves, Resource Limits and Status that were available to SCED for the actual dispatch of generation

  • Assume that the same transmission constraints that are active in real time SCED are also active in the Forecast SCED calculation

  • Post on MIS, the LMP’s generated for:

    • Resource Nodes

    • Hubs

    • Load Zones (LMPZ)

  • Provide via ICCP??

HUB

Generation

Load


Execution timing

Execution Timing

SCED Execution

Projections are 15 minutes into the future updated typically every 5 minutes


Nprr language suggested

NPRR Language Suggested

  • 6.5.7.3Security Constrained Economic Dispatch

  • For each SCED process, ERCOT shall calculate a rolling 15 minute projection of the Resource Node LMPs, Hub LMPs, Load Zone LMPs, and LMPs for each Electrical Bus based on the same inputs to the SCED process as described in this section, except for the Resource’s HDL and LDL and the total generation requirement will be as estimated at the end of the next 15 minutes. The Resource’s HDL and LDL will be calculated based on ramping over 15 minutes. ERCOT shall estimate the 15 minute projected total generation requirement by estimating the change in generation requirements in the next 15 minutes and adding such to the current actual generation requirement as was determined by LFC and used to produce the current SCED interval prices. ERCOT shall post the 15-minute projected LMPs for Resource Nodes, Hub LMPs, Load Zone LMPs, and LMPs for each Electrical Bus on the MIS Public Area according to Section 6.3.2, Activities for Real-Time Operations. In addition, ERCOT shall post the projected sum of LDL and projected sum of HDL for all Generation Resources and the projected 15 minute total generation requirement on the MIS Public Area according to Section 6.3.2..

  • 6.3.2Activities for Real-Time Operations

  • Post to the MIS Public Area, the 15-minute projected LMPs created by each SCED process for each Resource Node. Post the 15-minute projected Hub LMPs, Load Zone LMPs, and LMPs for each Electrical Bus via the MIS Public Area. These projected prices shall be posted immediately subsequent to deployment of Base Points from SCED with the time stamp of the SCED process that produced the projections.

  • Post to the MIS Public Area the sum of the projected of LDL and HDL for all Generation Resources and the total generation requirement used to calculate LMP projections.


Next steps

Next Steps

WMS discussion and potential motion

Get Comments from ERCOT Staff

Seek expedited implementation to support Quick Start objectives and demand response


Proposed wms motion

Proposed WMS Motion

The WMS supports the concept of the protocol change outlined in the draft NPRR titled, “Calculate and Post Projected Non-Binding LMPs for the Next 15 Minutes”, dated March 28, 2011 and urges PRS and ERCOT to expedite its implementation.


Discussion

Discussion


Appendix

Appendix


Sced up and sced down

SCED UP and SCED Down


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