Disaster Management

1. Disaster Management

3. One thing is sure: the future will be different from the past Photo: NASA

4. Background pressures Root causes Unsafe conditions Hazards Earthquake Typhoon/ cyclone Flooding Volcanic eruption Landslide Drought Virus & pests Industrial hazards • Physical: • Dangerous locations • Unprotected buildings etc. • Local economy: • Livelihoods at risk • Low income levels • Social relations: • Special groups at risk • Lack of local institutions • Public actions: • Lack of disaster preparedness • Prevalence of endemic diseases • Lack of: • Local institutions • Training • Appropriate skills • Local markets • Press freedom • Macro-forces: • Rapid population change • Deforestation • Declining soil productivity • Limited access to • Power • Resources • Ideologies: • Political systems • Economic systems Pressure model Disaster Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Adapted from Wisner et al. (2003): At Risk – natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters

5. Address root causes Reduce pressures Reduce hazards Achieve safe conditions • Protected • environment • Safe locations • Hazard-resistant buildings • Diversification of rural income opportunities • Resilient local economy • Strengthen livelihoods • Increase low incomes • Public actions • Disaster preparedness • Early warning systems • It is not possible • to prevent the • occurrence of • natural events… • But a range of measures to control certain hazards is possible e.g.: • Flood controls • Shelter breaks to reduce wind force • Reducing the level • of climate change through emission • reductions • Increase the access of vulnerable groups to • Power structures • Resources • Challenge any Ideology, political or economic system where it causes or increases vulnerability • Development of • Local institutions • Education • Training • Appropriate skills • Local investments • Local markets • Press freedom • Ethical standards in public life Release model Reduce disaster risk • Aim for control-led situation • No loss of life • Few casualties • Restricted damage • Food security Adapted from Wisner et al. (2003): At Risk – natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters

6. Photo: NASA Enhancing existing work – not new programmes! Climate lens

7. Enhanced decision-making for DM Step 1: Collect general background information Step 2: Based on the information you gather: prioritise Step 3: Turning planning into action Let’s explore each step! Step 4: Evaluation – revisit plans

8. Step 1: Collect general background information • Know what you are dealing with • Understand your country’s climate • And the changing risks it faces See also module 2a Assessments and partnerships

9. Enhancing our work with available information Short lead-times Middle lead-times Long lead-time See module 2b Using forecast information’

10. Photo: Alex Wynter/Netherlands Red Cross Enhancing the use of early-warning information • With climate change, people may find they can no longer read the weather or recognise hazards • This creates a need to use weather forecasts better at the National Society level • And also for communicating forecasts and projections to communities at risk and ensuring that people understand forecasts (that they deal in probability, not certainty), and have plans in place to act on them See also module ‘2b Using forecast information’

11. Photos: Danish Red Cross Community Assessments • Many National Societies consider how climate and weather-related hazards affect communities using the Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA). • Climate change should be considered amongst the many factors that affect risk – and addressed in the VCA and ‘community risk reduction plans’ • Use the community assessments to inform disaster management planning See module ‘2d: community climate risk’

12. Step 2: Based on the information you gather: Prioritise EXAMPLE Who? What? When? Where? Children affected by diarrhoea in droughts Floods hit area for the first time Dengue season lengthens Cyclones reach further south

13. Timely preparedness activities and new awareness messages Step 2: Example: Re-prioritising • Netherlands case: • More intense heat waves • Very likely to become worse • 2003 + 2006 heat waves triggered action - Ministry of Health and the Netherlands Red Cross: ‘National heat wave and cold spell plan’ Structural collaboration with Met office, Ministry, Red Cross and other organizations to spread heat wave warnings in advance.

14. 1.Preparedness for response Step 3: Turning planning into Action climate and weather information with different lead times 4.Recovery 2.Disaster Risk Reduction 3.Food Security

15. Step 3: Actions! 1. Enhancing preparedness for response • Accounting for new and rising risks due to climate change, for example: • Contingency planning including climate and weather information • Reviewing location and number of warehouses with response and relief item stocks • Mobilisation and training of a sufficiently large volunteer base ready to assist in impending disasters • Other potential actions? Photos: Danish Red Cross

16. Source: NASA Preparedness activities in expanded area Examples of preparedness for response • Bangladesh case: • Cyclone tracks reaching into new areas • Affecting people that are unprepared & unexperienced • Cyclones likely to get more intense • Bangladesh Red Crescent is expanding its famous Cyclone Preparedness Programme into new areas. • Larger numbers of people trained • Larger areas of government cyclone related coordination Photo: IFRC

17. adaptation toclimatechange adaptation to climate change Long-term adjustmenttochangingaverageclimateconditions (incl. benefits) Climate risk management (including weather extremes) Risk management of geophysical (and industrial/man-made) hazards disaster risk reduction Step 3: Actions! 2. Enhancing Disaster Risk Reduction DRR central in CCA – by addressing current risks disaster risk reduction Based on Mitchell & van Aalst 2008 Photos: Danish Red Cross

18. Photo: Netherlands Red Cross Examples of Disaster Risk Reduction • Colombian Red Cross addressing coastal erosion and building a new village Photos: Danish Red Cross

19. Photo: Alex Wynter/Netherlands Red Cross Photo: Danish Red CRoss Step 3: Actions Enhancing food security • Take into account the way climate change may affect seasonality of crops and rainfall events • Solutions might include crops that tolerate droughts and floods, better soil-management, rainwater harvesting • To incorporate early warning: • Draw on climate information • Seek advice from agricultural-extension services and specialist NGOs

20. Example: options for adaptation in food security Kenya Red Cross: climate-smart crop diversification Maize Cassava

21. Photos: Danish Red Cross Enhancing recovery Don’t rebuild risk… Safe areas need to be identified before rebuilding or relocation, like shelters on high ground in coastal areas prone to flooding

22. Example: Recovery • Haiti forecast page: • Haitians affected by the 2010 quake were later at risk from hurricanes • A special monitoring page was created to assist the recovery operations • http://iri.columbia.edu/haiti/

23. Photos: Danish Red Cross Enhancing and developing partnerships • Cooperation with governments and other actors on: • Using climate trends and shorter term forecast information in appeals before, during and after a disaster • Providing feedback to climate and weather information providers on the usability of information • Enhancing awareness-raising among vulnerable groups using volunteer networks • Capture local information about community perceptions of changes that are taking place • Incorporating climate-related elements into regular DM trainings for staff and volunteers.

24. New and better partnerships with... • Government agencies and decision- makers • Knowledge centres like meteorological offices and universities • NGOs, UN agencies, donors and the private sector.

25. In all cases, avoid maladaptation • Climate models cannot predict the conditions at a certain location many years from now: • So there is a risk of maladaptation – choosing the wrong measures to adapt • Seek to build a general resilience that does not depend too much on detailed climate projections, but contributes to risk reduction and sustainable development no matter how the weather patterns change. No-regrets adaptation Low-regrets adaptation High-regrets adaptation Low impact of uncertainty in climate predictions High impact of uncertainty in climate predictions

26. Step 4: Evaluation – revisit plans • Considering changing risks in steps 1, 2 and 3 is not a one-off process. It should be reassessed regularly by asking: • Have new and/or unusual disasters been occurring? • New diseases? • New conflicts? • How has the National Society dealt with them? • Any need to update plans, start new activities, recruit more volunteers? • Document success stories in dealing with changing risks. The more we share with each other the better!

27. Step 4: Monitoring and documenting impact • Include indicators to verify DM programmes are climate-smart and contribute to adaptation: • Are standard operating procedures and contingency plans adjusted to monitor seasonal forecasts and react to them? • Are there plans to ensure emergency infrastructure and stocks are positioned in safe locations? • Do community risk reduction plans take account of observed changes? • Are at-risk communities protected by early-warning systems? • Other examples?

28. Checklist Assess your National Society DM plans in the light of climate information and establish priorities: What needs to be done differently? Where do we want to focus? Photo: Alex Wynter/Netherlands Red Cross

29. Photo: IFRC Our key message: Information about climate and weather can reinforce preparedness and make operations more effective