Workshop on Labor Migration and Labor Market Information System Quebec City, Canada

1. Migration in the Americas: social insurance and management challenges Workshop on Labor Migration and Labor Market Information System Quebec City, Canada February 24-25, 2009

2. Our topics for today: • What is going to happen with migratory flows? • How will social insurance respond? • Policy • Administration • The Mercosur development

3. The rate increase in the labor force will remain high for many years to come • This is due to the large birth cohorts of the eighties and nineties entering the market, and to many more working women. Labor Force Participation Rate Men Women Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2004)

4. Migration is an important social and economic phenomenon for many small and large countries of the region: • Temporary and return migration has become much more common, causing a larger increase in gross flows that in net flows. • The Americas will continue to be an important place for migration, particularly for within-continent, where Canada, United States and Argentina will remain as net receivers of migration for the next half century.

5. Asia 15,356 Europe 13,369 12,949 16,639 Oceania 157,437 12,727 34,421 Africa 12,108 10,695 Mexico 260,318 Canada Jamaica 65,522 94,837 Colombia Brazil 168,849 Venezuela Argentina Others In the United States the main sources of temporary workers are in the Americas Temporary Workers in the United States, 2002 The Americas Source: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (2002)

6. Stock of skilled workers Tertiary Other Percentage Migration stock World labor force The increasing migration is accompanied by an increase in the migration rate of high skilled individuals Tertiary Migration (living OECD) Secondary Share of migrants by skill level Percentage 29.0 Millions of people 25.3 34.6 29.8 1990 2000 1990 2000 Changes in the participation in the world labor force, 1990-2000 Percentage 34.6 11.3 High skilled workers Low skilled workers

7. It is not easy to forecast the future even for very basic variables: Keyfitz (1981) evaluated more than 1,100 forecasts of population growth made between 1939 and 1960. • There were systematic errors across countries. • A review or more recent projections shows basically the same results. • For example, the latest UN projections: • Have adjusted growth for 2050 in more than a billion, and for 2100 in more than two billions. • For shorter intervals, in 1992 the UN projected a population for North America of 330 million in 2050, but the most recent forecast is 448 million. • In a complementary fashion, Latin America and the Caribbean “lose” 17 and 32% of their populations for 2050 and 2100.

8. Projected population sizes of major world regions, 2000-2100 United Nations medium scenario (millions) 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Asia 3,680 5,222 5,019 4,651 4,682 4,824 4,943 Latin America and the Caribbean 520 768 733 675 681 703 723 Africa 796 1,803 2,254 2,083 2,008 2,060 2,113 Europe 728 632 538 550 574 594 611 Northern America 316 448 474 490 509 523 534 Oceania 31 46 46 45 45 47 48 World 6,071 8,919 9,064 8,494 8,499 8,751 8,972 Change in projections between 1992 and 2003 versions Asia -1% -7% -16% Latin America and the Caribbean -4% -17% -32% Africa -9% -20% -23% Europe -11% -27% -37% Northern America 9% 36% 53% Oceania 3% 15% 15% World -3% -11% -19% Source: McNicoll, Geoffrey. "The United Nations Long-Range Population Projections." Population and Development Review, Vol. 18, No. S (Jun., 1992): 333-340. The United Nations on World Population in 2300. Population and Development Review, Vol. 30, No. 1. (Mar., 2004): 181-187.

9. Conclusions (1/2) • Uncertainty about the more likely evolution of society has not made any easier to improve social protection for migrants. • Unfortunately there is also lack of advance in multilateral forums • See the difficulties governments face in achieving agreements in Seattle (1999), Cancun (2003) and Geneva (2006) • The risk is that the space for global governance can end up being occupied by institutions that leave the weakest nations at the margin • Within the complexity of global politics, the subject of social rights has proven to be one of the most difficult • Basic social rights have been difficult to integrate with commercial negotiations • Social security works on a territorial base, with rights and obligations defined by national governments • Despite totalization agreements the great majority of international migrants on the American continent are not covered by them

10. Data Transfers and Validation System in Mercosur

13. The Mercosur agreement is multilateral. • It covers countries with a population of nearly one quarter of the Continental population (200 million out of 800). • Migration is high in the area. • A satisfactory administrative arrangement has also been worked out. • In the NAFTA region, Central America and the Caribbean, most migrants are not covered by international social security agreements.

14. We have not dealt here with the issues surrounding migratory laws and agreements, and social security “totalization” and “double-taxation” agreements. • However. It is clear that new technologies allow countries a radically improved administrative management of migrants’ cases. • The administration of social security agreements can also benefit substantially from the application of new technologies.

15. Uncertain expectations • The bilateral way cannot go much farther without the leadership of some of the large countries. • The multilateral way has advanced through the Ibero-American Agreement. • Countries have begun linking the social protection issue with the migration issue: • Questions related to human rights. • Issues on fairness of global economic system.