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SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer July 2011 Findings

SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer July 2011 Findings. Date: 21 st July 2011. Methodology. Poll Methodology. Dates of polling. June 30th – July 8th, 2011. 2000 respondents. Sample Size. Sampling methodology.

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SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer July 2011 Findings

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  1. SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) BarometerJuly 2011 Findings Date: 21st July 2011

  2. Methodology

  3. Poll Methodology Dates of polling June 30th – July 8th, 2011 2000 respondents Sample Size Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level Data collection methodology Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level

  4. Perceived problems facing Kenya today

  5. “In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” (by Total) Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  6. Prices of key commodities Source: Local shops / retail supermarkets collected by Synovate

  7. “Within the past 6 months, do you think the level of corruption in Kenya has increased, decreased or stayed the same. ..” (by total) Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)

  8. “How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?” (By total) % indicating that they are very committed/somewhat committed 86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53% Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  9. “How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?” (By total) 86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53% Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  10. Performance Ratings

  11. “How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions over the last three months?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  12. Performance Rating of the Grand Coalition Government: Time Series Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  13. Constitutional Implementation

  14. Key deadlines for the Constitution implementation: • Publishing crucial bills: • Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act, 2011 • Crucial bills yet to be passed: Deadline is August 27th 2011 • Elections Bill • Political Parties Bill • Devolved Government Bill • Bill on Citizenship • Bill on Ethics and Corruption • Budget and Finance Bill • Article 261 (1) • “Parliament shall enact any legislation required by this Constitution to be enacted to govern a particular matter within the period specified in the Fifth Schedule, commencing on the effective date” • Article 261 (5) • “If Parliament fails to enact any particular legislation within the specified time, any person may petition the High Court on the matter”

  15. “What is the main difficulty you foresee in implementing the new Constitution?” by Total Top 5 perceived difficulties: Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  16. Presidential Candidate and Political Party Choice

  17. “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  18. “Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” -Time Series

  19. “If ODM which group within ODM, do you support?” by Total Base: n=650 (Those saying “ODM”)

  20. Over 13 candidates have declared interest in the Presidency: • Professor James Ole Kiyiapi • Professor Chirau Ali Makwere • Isaac Jafar • Paul Muite • Mutava Musyimi • Eugene Wamalwa • Moses Wetangula • Bifwoli Wakoli • Martha Karua • Uhuru Kenyatta • Raila Odinga • Kalonzo Musyoka • William Ruto • Charity Ngilu • Moses Mudavadi • Others: • Peter Kenneth • Mike Sonko

  21. Constitutional Requirements on the Presidency • Article 138(4) : Declaration of winner • “A candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receives • more than half (over 50%) of all votes cast in the election and • “at least 25% of the votes cast in each of more than half of the Counties “(47 Counties i.e. 24 Counties) • Article 137(1d) : The nomination process • “A person is qualified for nomination as a Presidential Candidate if he or she is endorsed by not fewer than 2,000 voters from each of a majority of the Counties ( in at least 24 Counties before being endorsed by the electoral commission)” • Article 148 (1 and 3): Declaring a running mate • “Each candidate in a presidential election shall nominate a person who is qualified for nomination for election as President, as a candidate for Deputy President” • “The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall declare the candidate nominated by the person who is elected as the President to be elected as the Deputy President” • Other factors at play: • Cabinet secretaries will not be elected office holders [will not come from among MPs, senators , governors etc e.g. Article 99 (2)] • The Electoral Commission aims to register 19, 000,000 voters in the next General election (currently 12.4 million voters registered, IIEC) • Voters also expected to elect; on the same day as President; • Governor • Senator • Member of Parliament • County representative • County Women’s representative • And probably a mayor in urban areas e.g. Nairobi • Voter turn out

  22. “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  23. Presidential Candidate Choice Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  24. 5 Key Qualities Kenyans will consider when voting for a particular Presidential candidate

  25. 5 Key Qualities Kenyans will consider when voting for a particular Presidential candidate

  26. 2007 – 2008 Post Election Violence and ICC Trials

  27. “Which Kenyans have been named for possible trial by the ICC at the Hague?” Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  28. Opinion on ICC trials Q. “Please choose one statement that is closest to your view” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  29. “Are you happy or unhappy that the Hague/the ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence(PEV)?” by Total Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  30. Those happy with the pursuit of ICC suspects (by province) % indicating that they are happy Q. How would your community feel if the Hague/ICC punished each of the following suspects of PEV? Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  31. “(If Happy)Please explain?” Base: n=1208(Those saying happy)

  32. (If Unhappy)Please explain?” Base: n=638(Those saying unhappy)

  33. “In your opinion, should ICC hearings on confirmation of charges be held in….?” by Total Preference on ICC hearings on confirmation of charges: Base: n=2000 (All respondents)

  34. POLL METHODOLOGY The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 30th June - 8th July, 2011 To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.

  35. Poll Methodology (Cont..) These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews. The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another. The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing

  36. For further enquiries contactMaggie IreriMD Synovate Kenyamaggie.ireri@synovate.com

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