Distributional implications of power sector reforms in the philippines
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Distributional Implications of Power Sector Reforms in the Philippines. WONDIELYN Q. MANALO-MACUA University of Tsukuba. Power Sector Reforms. National Power Corporation Monopoly in Power, Owned by the Government Generation and Transmission. Before the Reforms

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Distributional Implications of Power Sector Reforms in the Philippines

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Distributional implications of power sector reforms in the philippines

Distributional Implications of Power Sector Reforms in the Philippines

WONDIELYN Q. MANALO-MACUA

University of Tsukuba


Power sector reforms

Power Sector Reforms

National Power Corporation

Monopoly in Power, Owned by the Government

Generation and Transmission

  • Before the Reforms

  • Central dispatch and price setting

  • Generation and Transmission used to be a State Monopoly handled by the National Power Corporation;

  • The Distribution Business is likewise a monopoly given to private sector per franchise area.

Generation

Distribution Utilities (DUs)/

Electric Cooperatives (ECs)

Customers

End-Users of Electricity

Residential, Commercial,

Industrial, Others


Power sector reforms1

Power Sector Reforms

Private

Competitive Electricity Market

  • Due to Reforms

  • Generation will be privatized; Transmission will be offered through a concession contract /franchise for 25 years to private sector.

  • Competitive dispatch and price setting

  • The Distribution Business remains a private sector business per franchise area.

Demand

Supply

Customers

End-Users of Electricity

Residential, Commercial,

Industrial, Others


Problem statement

Problem Statement

  • What are the distributional implications of the power sector reforms in the country, if it results in change in power prices?


Rationale

Rationale

  • Welfare will vary over families according to how much energy they consume; and with: (a) Family income; (b) Demographic makeup.

  • If welfare differences are substantial, their recognition is necessary for formulating more equitable policy responses to soften impact of price shocks.


Methodology

Methodology

  • Estimation of Demand

    • Non-linear pricing

    • Non-random sample selection

    • Endogeneity and simultaneity problems

  • Estimation of Welfare

    • Compensating Variation

    • Percentage loss (CV)


Estimation of demand

Estimation of Demand

Y

(seg.1)

M = pX+Y

(seg. 2)

(seg. 3)

x

X* = kink

The estimation of demand considers the problems created by kinked budget constraint via a 3Step procedure that employs correction for nonrandom sample selection, linearizes the budget constraint and instrumenting for the latter to correct for endogeneity

  • 3Step Methodology:

  • Probit Model for household spending above the kink.

    • Compute the Inverse Mills Ratio.

  • Instrumenting virtual income: regression of virtual income with real expenditure.

    • Take the Predicted Residuals.

  • Regression of demand including the inverse mills ratio and residuals.

Figure 1: Nonlinear budget constraint

Block rates give rise to kinks and

nonlinear budget line

at (1), X=0 M=Y

at (2), 0<X<X* M = F+Y

at (3), X>X*  M = F+ p(X-X*)+Y


Estimation of demand1

Estimation of Demand

  • Excluded Variable for the Probit: Fixed Payment

    • Fixed payment does not enter the demand equation

    • Fixed payment may affect whether the consumer is beyond the kink or not.

    • Fixed payment is completely exogenous variable since it is determined by the government

    • Time-variant variable.


Estimation of welfare

Estimation of Welfare*

  • Exact compensating variation (CV) from Jerry Hausman (1981): CV refers to the amount of money that one would have to pay, say a family, under the new prices to make it as well off as it was under the initial prices.


Results

Results

Total Compensating Variation computed using the parameters of demand from all observations; and parameters per income quartile:

Loss is strictly increasing as income increase.


Results percentage loss

Results: Percentage Loss

Using the all observations demand parameters: Welfare loss is strictly increasing as income increases.

Using the per quartile demand parameters: The lowest and the highest income group lose as much.


Comparison of elasticity estimates

Comparison of Elasticity Estimates


Implications conclusion

Implications/Conclusion

  • If welfare is computed in terms of percentage loss, (and using the parameters of per quartile regression) then while welfare loss is increasing as income increase, the loss of lowest income group is greatest among the lower income groups.

  • This may imply that the poorest group lose because it has very low income to start with. Any price increase is translated into higher percentage loss.

  • As such, electricity price subsidies may provide relief to the poor, but cannot address the real cause of higher welfare loss, low real income.


Annex block rates and kinks

Annex: Block Rates and Kinks

  • The block rates, rate above the minimum (price) and the minimum kWh consumption (kink) are different per region.

  • Block rates give rise to kink in the budget line.


Results all observations

Results: All observations

Table 1


Results per quartile regression

Results: Per Quartile Regression

Table 2

  • Table 1:

  • Correct signs and significant coefficients.

  • 3Step and OLS results are almost the same except for the estimates for price elasticity wherein the OLS reported lower coefficient.

  • Significant members, age, education dummies.

  • Table 2:

  • Lowest (1st) income group has relatively inelastic demand second only to the fourth income quartile

    • HH in first quartile have already limited appliance ownership compared to other income groups; as such even if price of electricity increase they no longer have freedom to adjust their consumption.

  • 1st and 4th quartiles have relatively highest income elasticity


Appendix power network structure

Appendix: Power Network Structure

Power Network Structure


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