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Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL. Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory. Modeling and Assimilation Application / Development In NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

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Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

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  1. A Brief Overview of Modeling and Data Assimilation Development at Regional and Global Scales at NOAA/ESRL Stan Benjamin NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

  2. Modeling and Assimilation Application / Development In NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclones Climate diagnostics Data assimilation (Whitaker) Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall) Aerosol obs/process research WRF-chem applications Cloud physics (Feingold) PBL param Carbon Tracker GHG obs/process research GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2 NWS NWP Obs impact exps Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRR FIM/NIM glob models iHYCOM ocean model WRF-chem inline chem Cumulus param PBL param Land-surface param Apps Development

  3. Modeling and Assimilation Application / Development In NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Model numerics Data assimilation Planetary boundary layer/land-sfc/air-ocean Cloud processes Chemistry Aerosol obs/process research WRF-chem applications Cloud physics (Feingold) PBL param Aerosol processes PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclones Climate diagnostics Data assimilation (Whitaker) Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall) Carbon Tracker GHG obs/process research GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2 NWS NWP Obs impact exps Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRR FIM/NIM glob models iHYCOM ocean model WRF-chem inline chem Cumulus param (Grell) PBL param Land-surface param Apps Development

  4. NOAA Next-Generation Model Development RAP RAPID REFRESH Hourly cycling model Data Assimilation Cycle Observations Radar data HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HRRR

  5. NOAA Next-Generation Model Development • FIM – Flow-following finite volume Icosahedral Model • “soccer-ball” grid design for uniform grid spacing • Isentropic/sigma hybrid vertical coordinate • New 14-day forecast twice daily • Real-time experimental at ESRL FIM atmosphere ocean • iHYCOM – Icosahedral Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model • Matched grid design to FIM for coupled ocean- atmosphere prediction system • Experimental testing at ESRL, Navy development iHYCOM

  6. 24h forecasts vs. raobs RMS vector error RR domain (N. America)

  7. For the record – FIM vs. GFS using ECMWF as verification. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/fimy/

  8. Oper GFS vs. real-time FIM Oper GFS vs. revised FIM with Janjic pressure gradient force Added 2 Nov – N. Hemisphere Over the full 10 days, FIM-Jan appears somewhat better in NH than prior FIM (prior PG formulation). Up to 0.01 improvement over GFS at 8-9 days (max 0.006 for FIM)

  9. Oper GFS vs. real-time FIM Oper GFS vs. revised FIM with Janjic pressure gradient force Added 2 Nov – S. Hemisphere Over the full 10 days, FIM-Jan appears muchbetter in NH than prior FIM (prior PG formulation). Up to 0.01 improvement over GFS at 9-10 days (no improvement at all in SH for FIM)

  10. Full 2012 track errors – Atlantic + E.Pacific basins

  11. Ernesto Helene Isaac Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Rafael Sandy 96h Atlantic track error by storm

  12. Ernesto Isaac Leslie Michael Nadine Sandy 120h Atlantic track error by storm • 2 US landfalling storms in Aug-Oct 2012 (Isaac, Sandy) • 41 of 54 forecasts at 120h from mid-Atlantic storms (Leslie/Michael/Nadine)

  13. Isaac forecasts from HFIP FIM9

  14. Sandy – initial time 25 Oct 00z HFIP ESRL-DA

  15. Sandy – initial time 26 Oct 00z HFIP ESRL-DA

  16. FIM9 – HFIP – Stream 1.5 FIM9 – ESRL DA Sandy track forecasts

  17. Modeling and Assimilation Application / Development In NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Model numerics Data assimilation Planetary boundary layer/land-sfc/air-ocean Cloud processes Chemistry Aerosol obs/process research WRF-chem applications Cloud physics (Feingold) PBL param Aerosol processes PBL/process research – Arctic, ocean, hydrology, tropical cyclones Climate diagnostics Data assimilation (Whitaker) Air-ocean fluxes (Fairall) Carbon Tracker GHG obs/process research GHG land-use process param FIM- CO2 NWS NWP Obs impact exps Regional models/assim RAP/RUC/HRRR FIM/NIM glob models iHYCOM ocean model WRF-chem inline chem Cumulus param (Grell) PBL param Land-surface param Apps Development

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