Cosysmo application at bae systems
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COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems. Gan Wang COSYSMO Workshop 23 rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM Workshop USC Campus, Los Angeles, CA Oct. 29 & 30, 2008. COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems.

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Cosysmo application at bae systems

COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems

Gan Wang

COSYSMO Workshop

23rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM Workshop

USC Campus, Los Angeles, CA

Oct. 29 & 30, 2008


Cosysmo implementation at bae systems

COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems

  • Developed System Engineering Estimation Model and Process (SEEMaP)

    • Estimating end-to-end, system engineering and integration effort in a system development program

    • Company-wide, common estimating tool deployed across major sites, lines of business (LoBs) and operating groups (OGs), including New Hampshire, San Diego, New Jersey, New York…

  • Desktop tool, calibrated with historical program data across LoBs

    • With organization and product line-specific calibrations

  • Applied to

    • ROM estimates

    • Engineering bid & proposal

    • Trade studies

SEEMaP Workbook:

Encapsulating Tool and Process


Early results excellent

Early Results Excellent

  • Deployed in 2007-2008 to E&IS OG

    • Applied to: ROM, bid & proposal, risk analysis

    • Mandated use by several organizations

  • Outstanding correlation achieved between estimate and actual in calibrations

  • Early experience shows excellent result:

    • Variance with other methods (bottom-up): 2–25%

    • Effort to create estimate: 2-8 hours

    • Cost saving and cycle time reduction: 85–95%

    • (Bottom-up may take up to weeks)

SEEMaP (COSYSMO) Calibration


Quantitative risk analysis

Quantitative Risk Analysis

  • COSYSMO provides single-point estimates

    • With fixed driver counts and classification

  • Integrating Crystal Ball quantifies the uncertainty and provides quantitative risk analysis through Monte Carlo Simulation

    • Crystal Ball will provide a quantified output range of the various scenarios, with a probability of occurrence

    • A sensitivity analysis provides insight into which inputs most effect the outcome

  • Now it is possible to offer (true) 50/50, 80/20, 20/80 risk positions

    • Not just to claim them

Sizing Parameters

Degrees of Reuse and Difficulties


Monte carlo simulation generates an estimate distribution

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation Generates an Estimate Distribution

Input Distribution


In the works

In the Works

  • Total Engineering Estimation Model and Process (TEEMaP)

    • Extending SEEMaP & COSYSMO capabilities to total engineering

    • Estimating the total, end-to-end engineering effort in development a system

    • Deployment in 2009

  • Apply to company LCM Framework

ROM to determine Cost & Risk positions relative to PTW

Validate contract pricing & quick trades for scope negotiation

Develop cost targets & validation of total/functional engineering bids

Evaluate technology insertion, upgrades, & new opportunities

TEEMaP

TEEMaP

TEEMaP

TEEMaP

Phase Reviews

Prepare Bid/No Bid Information

Prepare Proposal

Contract Accepted

Mobilize

Initial Design

Design System

Integration

of System

System Qualification

Production, Installation and Commissioning

In-Field Support

Disposal

1B

2A

2B

2C

3A

3B

4

5

6

7

Milestone Reviews

TEEMaP

Develop engineering baselines and milestone reviews & ETCs

CDR

SRR

PRR

SDR/PDR

TRR


Questions and comments

Questions and Comments

Gan Wang

[email protected]

703-668-4259


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