Cosysmo application at bae systems
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COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems. Gan Wang COSYSMO Workshop 23 rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM Workshop USC Campus, Los Angeles, CA Oct. 29 & 30, 2008. COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems.

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COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems

Gan Wang

COSYSMO Workshop

23rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM Workshop

USC Campus, Los Angeles, CA

Oct. 29 & 30, 2008


COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems

  • Developed System Engineering Estimation Model and Process (SEEMaP)

    • Estimating end-to-end, system engineering and integration effort in a system development program

    • Company-wide, common estimating tool deployed across major sites, lines of business (LoBs) and operating groups (OGs), including New Hampshire, San Diego, New Jersey, New York…

  • Desktop tool, calibrated with historical program data across LoBs

    • With organization and product line-specific calibrations

  • Applied to

    • ROM estimates

    • Engineering bid & proposal

    • Trade studies

SEEMaP Workbook:

Encapsulating Tool and Process


Early Results Excellent

  • Deployed in 2007-2008 to E&IS OG

    • Applied to: ROM, bid & proposal, risk analysis

    • Mandated use by several organizations

  • Outstanding correlation achieved between estimate and actual in calibrations

  • Early experience shows excellent result:

    • Variance with other methods (bottom-up): 2–25%

    • Effort to create estimate: 2-8 hours

    • Cost saving and cycle time reduction: 85–95%

    • (Bottom-up may take up to weeks)

SEEMaP (COSYSMO) Calibration


Quantitative Risk Analysis

  • COSYSMO provides single-point estimates

    • With fixed driver counts and classification

  • Integrating Crystal Ball quantifies the uncertainty and provides quantitative risk analysis through Monte Carlo Simulation

    • Crystal Ball will provide a quantified output range of the various scenarios, with a probability of occurrence

    • A sensitivity analysis provides insight into which inputs most effect the outcome

  • Now it is possible to offer (true) 50/50, 80/20, 20/80 risk positions

    • Not just to claim them

Sizing Parameters

Degrees of Reuse and Difficulties


Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo Simulation Generates an Estimate Distribution

Input Distribution


In the Works

  • Total Engineering Estimation Model and Process (TEEMaP)

    • Extending SEEMaP & COSYSMO capabilities to total engineering

    • Estimating the total, end-to-end engineering effort in development a system

    • Deployment in 2009

  • Apply to company LCM Framework

ROM to determine Cost & Risk positions relative to PTW

Validate contract pricing & quick trades for scope negotiation

Develop cost targets & validation of total/functional engineering bids

Evaluate technology insertion, upgrades, & new opportunities

TEEMaP

TEEMaP

TEEMaP

TEEMaP

Phase Reviews

Prepare Bid/No Bid Information

Prepare Proposal

Contract Accepted

Mobilize

Initial Design

Design System

Integration

of System

System Qualification

Production, Installation and Commissioning

In-Field Support

Disposal

1B

2A

2B

2C

3A

3B

4

5

6

7

Milestone Reviews

TEEMaP

Develop engineering baselines and milestone reviews & ETCs

CDR

SRR

PRR

SDR/PDR

TRR


Questions and Comments

Gan Wang

[email protected]

703-668-4259


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