Hindsight. Bonds break major supportF-Funds go to 4.75%Gold making new highsYield curve flatStocks make new highsMiddle-stage business cycle. Foresight. Inflation is backBear market in bonds beginsCommodities and real estate will prosperEconomy will stay strong until Fed action takes holdSt
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1. Paterson Financial Services Chartbook 1Q 2006
2. Hindsight Bonds break major support
F-Funds go to 4.75%
Gold making new highs
Yield curve flat
Stocks make new highs
Middle-stage business cycle
3. Foresight Inflation is back
Bear market in bonds begins
Commodities and real estate will prosper
Economy will stay strong until Fed action takes hold
Stock market is booming
4. Business Cycle – Nov 2001 The economy is four years into the current cycle and likely has four more years to go.
At this stage in the cycle, interest rates and stock prices begin a sustained rise
Income, employment, production, sales and prices also rise
Yield curve begins to invert
5. Business Cycle Indicators Trough in 4Q of 2001
Stock market bottoms 2003
Current cycle over 48 months old
Last two cycles 92 and 120 months
4 years to go in this cycle?