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Review of National Presto (NPK) 11/20/09

Review of National Presto (NPK) 11/20/09. AB Analytical Services. Summary. Stock Not Covered by Wall Street Three Divisions, None Too Cyclical CEO owns 30% Annual Dividend in March – High Payout Strong Balance Sheet and FCF Generation Low Valuation. Profile. Company History.

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Review of National Presto (NPK) 11/20/09

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  1. Review of National Presto (NPK)11/20/09 AB Analytical Services

  2. Summary • Stock Not Covered by Wall Street • Three Divisions, None Too Cyclical • CEO owns 30% • Annual Dividend in March – High Payout • Strong Balance Sheet and FCF Generation • Low Valuation

  3. Profile

  4. Company History • Founded in 1905 (Northwestern Steel & Iron Works) • HQ: Eau Claire, WI • National Pressure Cooker Company (1917) • 1953 – National Presto (due to diversification) • History of Innovation in Home Appliances • Diapers through acquisitions in 2001 and 2003 • Defense through acquisition in 2001 then 2006 • Litigation Battle with SEC – Victorious 5/15/07

  5. 3 Divisions • Housewares • Defense • Absorbent Products

  6. Housewares • Approximately 31% of 2008 Sales • Sourced from Asia – sold through Retail and Distributors (35% = Wal-Mart) • Q4 is peak of sales (substantially) • Two types of products • Cast (53%): Griddles, Wafflemakers, Hamburgers, Deep Fryers • Non-Cast/Thermal (47%): Pizza, Popcorn, Coffee • Trend towards in-home food preparation offsetting typical cyclicality

  7. Defense • 53% of Sales in 2008 • 2001 acquisition (AMTEC) • 2005 – 1 of 2 Prime Contractors 40mm practice and tactical ammo (5yr contract) • 2003 – Spectra (Load Assemble and Pack) • 2006 – Amron (cartridge cases) • Fixed-Price Contracts for Army • U.S. Army Contracts were $144 in 2008 (60.6% of segment)

  8. Absorbent Products • 16% of Sales in 2008 • Entered Market in 2001 (RMED Intl) – private label primarily • Diapers and adult incontinence products • 2003 NCN acquisition was a “dog” – closed facility and quit making dog pads • Segment has lost money until this year

  9. Management • Maryjo Cohen, 56: Chairman since 2001 and CEO since 1994, daughter of recently deceased former CEO Melvin Cohen (with company since 1976) • CFO (Director) returned in late 2008, former CFO 1999-2007 (with company >30yrs) • VP Sales and VP Engineering both joined in 1971 • 3 Outside Directors ($30k fee earned per yr) • Compensation plan consists solely of salary (and not much) – no bonuses, no stock/options • CEO Succession Plan exists (no details) • Auditor: BDO Seidman

  10. Ownership Issues • Royce owns 11.7%, Barclays and Renaissance > 5% • Member S&P 600, R2000 • Moderate Short-interest: 3%, 8 days • Average Daily Trading – 31K ($3mm) • Insiders own 30% (CEO 30% - mainly as Trustee) • No options outstanding

  11. Long-Term Revenue Growth

  12. Income Statement • GM 18% 2006-2008, 20-30% 2000-2005 • GM YTD: 22% • EBIT: 13-15% 2004-2008 • EBIT YTD: 18% • YTD sales up 9%, NI up 57%

  13. Balance Sheet • $133mm cash • Net PPE: $50mm • Inventory a little high at $101mm (Finished Goods up 50% YTD, Raw Materials up 150%) • AR low at $68mm • LTD $0mm • Total Liabilities: $55mm • Equity: $314mm • Tangible Equity: $302mm

  14. Cashflow Statement • 2008: 110% FCF conversion (4.4mm Capex and 8.8mm D&A) • >100% every year since 2003 • 2009 YTD: FCF = 108% of NI

  15. Technicals • 80 was >20yr high first tested 9/08 (not far from breakout) • Modest relative performance over past year • Seasonal trend favorable in front of big dividend

  16. Valuation

  17. Forward-Looking Data • Housewares (from Q3 Press Release): With an end date of October 4, the 2009 quarter contained one more strong seasonal shipping week than third quarter 2008, which ended on September 28. In addition, the heightened demand for Housewares/Small Appliances reported for both first and second quarters of 2009 continued during the third quarter. Given the high levels of unemployment and overall retail weakness, it is questionable whether the Housewares/Small Appliance sales pace enjoyed during the first three quarters of the year can be sustained during the all important fourth quarter • Defense • $52mm add-on award for 2010-11(9/2009) • $67mm add-on award for 2010 (2/2009) • $34mm add-on award for 2010 (1/2009) • Absorbent Announcement 9/30/09: The Company also announced that its absorbent product subsidiary, Presto Absorbent Products, Inc. recently entered a two year private label manufacturing agreement with its major customer. The agreement provides a framework for the ongoing relationship between the parties. It is anticipated that shipments to the customer during the two year contractual period will be maintained at levels comparable to current volume. The subsidiary also will continue its program to further diversify its customer base.

  18. Q4 EPS??? • Q4 Assumptions: • Housewares up 15%, Absorbent up 10%, Defense flat  Sales of $158mm (up 10%) • OM: Houseware: 20% (-300bps v 2008), Defense 21.5%, Absorbent 10% 20% growth • EPS estimate  3.18 (full year $9.12) • Note that EPS growth was 64% Q3, 39% Q2, 73% Q1 and just 1% in Q4-08

  19. $>7 Dividend in March???

  20. 2010 Projection • 2009 Projected Sales 8% to 485mm • 2010 By Segment • Houseware: Slows to 10% • Defense: Stays 8% • Absorbent: Just 5% • Total Sales rise 8% from 485mm to 525mm • Margin Assumptions: Houseware falls from 18% to 16%, Defense falls from 21.5% to 21%, Absorbent increases from 9.6% to 11% • Operating Profits Grow 4% (EPS of 9.48) • Conservative Conclusion: 8% Sales Growth and 4% EPS growth

  21. Sum of the Parts Analysis • Housewares: 15 PE  $267mm • Defense: 9 PE  $334mm • Absorbent: 10 PE (?)  $58mm • Cash: 132mm • $791mm/6.857  $115

  22. Risks Defense Cycle Defense Contract Loss Wal-Mart is 11% Customer Medline 12% for Absorbents (2yr contract) Input costs / transportation costs No forward guidance provided, no conference calls either Management Depth??? Opportunities Defense contracts give stability Continued profitability improvement in absorbents Acquisitions Risks/Opportunities

  23. Conclusion • Limited downside – big dividend ahead (>$7) • Stock Trades at 10PE before consideration of cash of $20 per share • Seems to compensate for CEO reliance • Businesses are not very cyclical

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