World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

1. WMO 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes Session 1: Learning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand and South East Asia five years after the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming. Role of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk Reduction Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water www.wmo.int

2. AGENDA • After Tsunami • Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate related risks • Role of HydroMet Services in Disaster Risk Management • Risk assessment • Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems • Risk Transfer • WMO initiatives

3. Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 • Ocean based Tsunami observing system installed (UNESCO-IOC) • 2 international Tsunami Watch Centers designated (JMA, PTWC) • WMO Global Telecommunication System updated in 8 countries • All countries receive Tsunami Watch under 5 minute • All countries in Indian Ocean have National Focal Points for Tsunami watch BUT Disaster risk management and emergency preparedness in most countries is still reactive and remain to be addressed

4. Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) in South and South-East Asia 90% of events 55% of casualties 84% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions. Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc Bangladesh, Buthan, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, SriLanka, Thailand, Vietnam

5. Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007) Number of events Loss of life Economic Losses Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

6. Climate change impact in South and South East AsiaIPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007) • Increase in occurrence in extreme weather events: heat waves and intense precipitation events • Increase of 10-20 % in Tropical Cyclones intensities for a rise of sea surface temperature of 2 to 4 degrees • Expansion of areas under severe water stress • Increased flooding risks during wet season and possibilities of water shortage in dry season on the Mekong river • Sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people in the low-level areas (Vietnam, Bangladesh and India) • Increased in climate related diseases (diarrhea and malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera)

7. How WMO’s Research and Operational Network of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services support Disaster Risk ManagementWMO leverages global, regional, national cooperation to ensure development and availability of meteorological, hydrological and climate services at the national level.

8. WMO has been coordinating International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme Operational forecasting systems Northern AtlanticOscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation UNFCCC negotiations IPCC Assessments

9. WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National Meteorological Services 2 Global Observing System National Meteorological & Hydrological Services 1 3 4 Global Data Processing and Forecasting Global Telecommunication System

10. Communication and Dissemination of Processed information 5 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Examples: Global Tropical Cyclone and Storm Watch System Emergency Response Activities Drought Monitoring and Forecasting 6 Private sector General public Government and civil defence authorities Media

11. WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems such as the Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

12. WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to …Leverage WMO’s Research and Operational Network and partnerships to support disaster risk reduction at the national level in a more comprehensive and coordinated manner

13. Hyogo Framework for Action…… change in paradigm of DRM • Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries! • Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005 is leading to a new paradigm in disaster risk management involving investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer …. Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services!

14. Comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools 1 PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products 3 2 Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

15. WMO Action Plan for Disaster strengthening Risk Reduction at national and regional level • Modernized Hydromet Services and observing networks. • Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems. • Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities. • Strengthened Hydromet Services cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies. • Trainedmanagement and staff of Hydromet Services • Enhanced ministerial and publicawareness

16. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Servicesin Risk Assessment Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

17. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Servicesin Risk Assessment Provision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment: • Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata • Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies • Forward looking hazard trend analysis • Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts • Probabilitic climate models

18. Number of Countries Maintaining some sort of Hazard Data Archives • Very few countries maintain impact databases • Data archived are not standardised • 90 % of NMHS indicated need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO DRR survey)

19. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Servicesin Risk Reduction Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

20. Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up While casualties related to hydro-meteorological disasters are decreasing Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

21. In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk management Communities at risk National to local governments post-disasterresponse hazard warning NATIONAL SERVICES Meteorological Hydrological hazard warning Geological Marine Health (etc.)…

22. 4 1 National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms Community Preparedness What is an Effective EWS? 5 feedback preventiveactions 5 feedback 2 warnings warnings COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES 3 3 Meteorological Hydrological Geological Marine Health (etc.) 3 warnings feedback 5

23. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services forFinancial Risk Transfer Markets Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

24. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets • Availability and accessibility ofhistoricalandreal-time data • Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis • Reliable and authoritative data forcontract design and settlement • Forecastsfor management of risk portfolio • Technical support and service delivery

25. Challenges at different levels • Building, strengthening and sustaining the meteorological/climate observing networks, data management and forecasting systems are resource intensive and not on the radar screen of many governments! • Servicing Financial Risk Transfer markets is a “new” field for Meteorological and Hydrological Services!

26. Addressing these Challenges at different levels • Need to make a business case for the need for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their governments (e.g., investments in meteorological capacities is an investment towards improved risk managment and development) • Initiate systematic modenization/data rescue/capacity development of Met Services with a sustainability plan • Raise awareness of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services on emerging opportunities such as « weather-indexed Insurance » (based on lessons learnt from demonstrated pilots) • Engage National Meteorological and Hydrlogical Services as Partners • Standardization of core meteorlogical/hydrological/climate products

27. Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets Weather Risk Management Markets (ART) European Agricultural Risk Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts Wind Power Risk Contracts Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project & Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility UK Flood CAT Bond CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew Indian Agricultural Risk Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Heating Degree Day Contracts Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia Malawi Drought Risk Management Pacific Risk Insurance Facility Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets

28. Key Questions: 1) Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands? 2) How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the DRR planning and implementation to generate demand for their services?

29. Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Assessing Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management: • 1. National policies and legislation • 2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communications • Hazard databases • Forecasting and Warning Capacities • Human resources (technical, managerial) • Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholders

30. Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses 44/48 92 % 18/22 82 % 25/34 74 % 10/12 83 % 14/19 74 % 24/52 54 % 139 /187 Countries responded 74% response rate http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

31. Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Country Responses

32. Country-Level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Under estimated Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

33. WMO is Establishing Strategic Partnerships with Agencies that Influence the National DRM Programmes and Funding

34. WMO is addressing this challenge through national and regional projects with World Bank, UNDP, ISDR and others Partnerships and ‘User-driven’service delivery Modernization of infrastructures (when needed) observing networks, forecasting and communication Data rescue and managment systems Technical training – Analysis and forecasting tools and methodologies Generating demand for Meteorological and Hydrological Services with the goal to direct sustainable government funding overtime for further improving and sustaining of these services

35. Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (2007-2011)

36. Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects (Europe) DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia-Pacific) End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC) (North America & Carribeans) (South America) DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO) (Asia) Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo (Africa) Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC) End-to-end EWS 2010 2007 2008 2009 2011

37. World Bank, ISDR, WMO initiative in South East Asia • Initiated in 2009 • Goal: to strengthen institutional cooperation and coordination in • Risk Management Capacities • Hydro meteorological services Lao Vietnam Cambodia Philippines Indonesia Phase I: Fact finding assessment and development of national and regional reports (Funded by GFDRR) (underway)

38. Trends and patterns of hazard are changing due to climate change (IPCC)Statistical analysis of historical data is only first estimate . Needs for forward looking information to augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping

39. Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform geographically Droughts Trends in heavy rainfall Trends in Frost and Heat Waves Need for production of local climate information… Highly Resource Intensive! (IPCC, 2007) IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

40. Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services Four Major Thrusts: Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies) Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and information to national centers Strengthen observation networks More targeted climate research

41. Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) ECMWF Moscow Exeter Montreal Beijing Seoul Toulouse Tokyo Washington Lead Centre for LRFMME Pretoria Melbourne Lead Centre for SVSLRF SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble CLW/CLPA/WCAS

42. World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better future Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September 2009

43. Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years: Partners National: NMHS, sectors representatives International/Regional: World Bank, Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) Status: Project was launch on June 21 World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan Climate Risk management Project in AfricaWMO/World Bank Project in AfricaFunded by GFDRR

44. Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int http://www.wmo.int/disasters

45. Strong Wind Coastal Marine Hazards Tropical Cyclones Heavy rainfall / Flood Heatwaves Need for disaster riskmanagement Energy Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate Water Resource Management Food security Transport Intensity Industry Health Urban areas Volnurability and Exposure on the rise ! Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing Frequency

46. A comprehensive approach to DRR is critical for reducing risks Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (World Conference on Disaster Reduction) WMO Strategic Plan 2008-2015 (Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts) Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners WMO strategic priorities in Disaster Risk Reduction