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Resource Efficiency for Green Growth: Is much of the Asia in an advantageous position to Low Carbon World?. International Conference on Green Industry in Asia 10 September 2009, Manila Shuzo Nishioka Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

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slide1

Resource Efficiency for Green Growth:

Is much of the Asia in an advantageous

position to Low Carbon World?

International Conference on Green Industry in Asia

10September 2009, Manila

Shuzo Nishioka

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)

National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan

slide2

To stabilize climate,

demand side energy saving, especially in developing countries, plays a big role globally

% OECD nOECD

Share 35 65

Energy

saving -47 -59

Supply side

Demand side

2050

2005

slide3

Key conclusion:

1.Japan has the technological potential to reduce its CO2 emission by 70% compared to the 1990 level, while satisfying the expected demand for energy services in 2050.

2. Energy saving and LC primary energy contribute almost equally.

3. Innovation necessary not only in technology but in social

infrastructure and institutions as well

Japan Low Carbon Society 2050 ScenarioAresearch result to endorse Japanese policy of 60-80% reduction in 2050 by NIES, Kyoto Univ., TIT, Tokyo Univ. +α(2004-2009)

Prime Minister Fukuda in Congress (Jan. 2008)“..maximize Japanese environmental power, lead world transition towards Low Carbon Society…”

(May 18) Japanese long-term target

60-80% reduction until 2050,

slide5

0

100

200

300

400

70% CO2 reduction

can be attained by

(Mtoe)

Passenger transport

Freight transport

2000

Industry

Household

Eco-efficient product and consumers’ smart choices can reduce energy consumption by as much as

40-45%

Business

2050

Scenario A

Reduced energy demand

2050

40-45% reduction

Scenario B

Passenger transport

Freight transport

Industry

Household

Business

Equal effort by demand & supply side

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

(Mtoe)

2000

Coal

Oil

Gas

Low carbon shift in primary energy sources via introduction of renewable energies

Hydro

2050

Use of centralized energy

Scenario A

Nuclear

2050

Use of distributed energy

一次エネルギー供給

Solar/Wind

Scenario B

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Hydro

Solar/Wind

Nuclear

slide6

Energy Efficiency is the key, but not enough

Step 1

Social

change

Step 2

Service

demand

Step 3:

Energy

demand

Step 4:

CO2

emission

CO2

Emission=

Energy

CO2

Energy

GDP

Service

Demand

×

Pop

×

×

×

Service Demand

Pop

GDP

Energy

Popは

0.8

GDP/Cap

2.7

Low Carbonize

0.5

CO2

0.3

Service Industry

Shift 0.45

Energy efficiency

0.6

【Demand side】

Saving energy devices, hi-insulated housing, renewable energy,

Compact city 70%

40% reduction

Service Demand

Same as 2000

【Supply side】

Nuclear, Renewables,CCS with Coal

30% reduction

2050 Japan LCS Scenario

significant co 2 reduction potential in demand side
Significant CO2reduction Potential in demand side

Secondary energy demand (million tonC))

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Passenger

Cargo

Industry

Res.

others

2000

Office

2050A

2%/yGrowth

2050B

1%/yGrowth

toshiba aims factor 10

CO2 : 1/2

Population : X 1.5

GDP/Population : X 3.4

GDP/PopulationX Population X 1/CO2

= 3.4 X 1.5 X 2

EnvironmentalVision

2050

Factor 10 by 2050

Simplified

eco-efficiency

GDP/CO2

Toshiba aims Factor 10
  • The ideal situation in 2050
  • People lead rich lifestyles in harmony with the Earth
  • Common goal to reduce CO2 emissions by half to prevent global warming
      • Reducing the environmental impact generated by human beings by half
  • An increasingly growing population
      • Reducing the environmental impact generated by each person by 1.5 times
  • Economic development accelerated, especially in developing countries
      • Creating 3.4 times more value

Takeda (Toshiba): 2009

slide9

Eco-efficiency and Factor

*The higher the value, the greater the eco-efficiency is.

Value of a product

Eco-efficiency =

Environmental Impactof a product

*The value of the factor indicates to what extent the eco-efficiency of the product has increased.

Factor = Degree of Improvement of Eco-efficiency

Toshiba’s Approach:

“Factor T” integrating three environmental perspectives

- To optimize the trade-off between Environment and Lifestyle -

  • Integration of environmental impact by the LIME Method
  • Integration of value of a product with multiple functions by the QFD method
  • Integration of product and business process eco-efficiency
slide10

What is Product Value?

QFD matrix

  • Voice of customer is translated into engineering metrics.
  • Customers’ evaluation of a product is reflected in an indicator to enhance customer satisfaction.
  • We adopted QFD* method to reflect customers’ evaluation in determination of product value.

*QFD (Quality Function Deployment):A systematic process for integrating product functions based on the degree of importance customers attach to them when selecting a product.

slide11

Process of Integrating Environmental Impact

Easy-LCA*

Recycling

Procure-ment

Distribu-tion

Consum-ption

Wastetreatment

Manufa-cturing

* A simplified LCA tool developed by Toshiba, incorporating a database of 30 inventory items based on the input/output table of Japan

Environmental Load

HFC, SOX, T-N, T-P, CO2, NOX, etc

・・・

Ozone Depletion

Acidifi-cation

Global Warming

Air Polution

Eutro-phication

・・・

Plant Production

Aquatic Plant Decrease

Respiratory Diseases

Dengue Fever

Cancer

Malaria

Social Property

Biodiversity

Primary Production

Human Health

Integration

**Life-cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling : developed by AIST as part of a NEDO project.

LIME**

slide12

Factor Description and Applications

  • “Factor T” is already applied to 80% of all Toshiba products.
  • Factors are calculated on the basis of FY2000 models.
  • Graph shows factors of products using two axes:
  • “Value Factor”
  • “Environmental Impact Reduction Factor”
  • Lines indicate enhancement of the value or reduction of the environmental impact.

Factor

Value Factor

Environmental Impact Reduction Factor

×

=

asian opportunity 1 low carbon technologies already available i technologies commonly shared 2020
Asian Opportunity 1: Low carbon technologies already availableif technologies commonly shared (2020)

GHG Reduction Potential

Huge reduction potential when

Best Available Technology applied

Negative cost!

  • China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there are large reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials in the world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.
slide14

Infrastructure is importantExample: Passenger transport sector can achieve 80% reduction in energy demand via suitable land use & improved energy efficiency

Change in passenger transport volume

Decline intransport volume

Change in passenger transport methods

Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density (\'compact cities\')

Land use・ Reduction intransport volume

Improved energy efficiency

Grid electricity

Energy efficiency improvement

Energy Demand (Mtoe)

Hydrogen

Solar energy generation

Biomass

Natural gas

Petroleum oil

2000(Actual figure)

2050(scenario B)

2050(scenario A)

Energy demand in 2000

Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline

Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.)

Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density (\'compact cities\'): reduced travel distance due to proximity

of destination

Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids, lightweight

designs etc.)

slide15

Beijing

北京1975

北京1997

北京1984

北京1991

深圳1985

深圳1997

深圳2005

Tokyo & Osaka

Seoul

ソウル2006

ソウル1920

ソウル1960

東京1927

東京1967

東京2001

大阪1927

大阪1967

大阪2001

Manila

マニラ2060

マニラ2000

台北1920

台北2003

Bangkok

バンコク2000

バンコク1950

Rapidly Expanding Asian Cities

From Kaneko: 2009

slide16

100%

Modal share of

motorized

private mode

*San Francisco

North American Pattern

*Rome

European Pattern

*Munich

*Tokyo

Most efficient pattern

daa

*Beijing

*Manila

*Hong Kong

0%

50,000

GDP/Capita (USD)

Asian Opportunity 2:

Designing efficient Infrastructure

From IEA: 2008

slide18

Asian Opportunity 3:

Technological

leap-fogging starts now

Electric Car:

Experiences in Mobile Phone

(ELIICA) 4 PASSENGER SEDAN370km/h MAX.SPEED

Prof. Hiroshi SHIMIZU, Keio Univ.

slide19

From Toyota to Pansonic?

No engine but only motors in every wheel

PLATFORM by SIM-Drive

slide20

Let’s design

customized

Asian Eco-car

Body Panels

Lighter,

wider, and flexible design,

when move engine away

Body Frame

Chassis

new system technology platform by sim drive
NEW SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY “PLATFORM by SIM-Drive”

IN WHEEL MOTOR

MOTOR DRIVE SYSTEMS ARE

INSERTED IN EACH 8 WHEELS

・HIGHER EFFICIENCY

・LIGHTER WEIGHT

・WIDER USEFUL

SPACE IN CABIN

TANDEM WHEEL

SUSPENSION

TWO WHEELS ARE CONNECTED BY AN OIL PIPE

・COMFORT

・FASTER CORNERING SPEED

・WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN

A CABIN

COMPONENT BUILT IN FRAME

MAJOR COMPONENTS ARE IN 16cm

HEIGHT FRAME UNDER THE FLOOR

・LIGHTER WEIGHT

・LOWER CENTER OF GRAVITY

・WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN A CABIN

slide22

Asian Opportunity 4: Free from past high-energy-depending technology track

Long-term Trends in Energy Intensity (energy/GDP)

Japan’s leap-frog

China?

India?

Possibility of Asian

countries’ catch-up

  • How can wefacilitate technology leap flogging to promote low carbon development?
  • What would be mechanisms (international and national, market and non market) that could facilitate those leap-floggingsto low carbon technologies?

22

acceleration of technology essential to realize a low carbon society

Considerations (1)

Acceleration of Technology Essential to Realize a Low Carbon Society

Carbon intensity(excluding CCS)

Energy intensity

Carbon intensity (CCS equivalent)

1.25

Past

0.65

2.36

0.78

0.53

Scenario A

Scenario B

1.70

1.41

2.79

0.85

0.61

UK

1.72

1.62

0.68

France

2.38

0.45

1.26

Germany

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Rate of improvement in carbon & energy intensity (%/year)

international decoupling competition started
International decoupling competitionstarted

Energy

Intensity

Japan almost

caught up by

European countries

IEA Energy

statistics

slide25

New Energy competition : distributed energy

Germany

Spain

Japan

USA

Solar Panel Capacity Growth

米国

slide27

Embedded Water to Japan (Virtual water)accompanied with food, meat, industrial product,,tightening of mutual dependency in natural resource usage

27

出典:T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003.

2002年に穀物、肉、工業製品として日本に輸入されたバーチャルウォーター

世界の水資源への影響が、日本にも及ぶかもしれない。

出典:T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003.

toward resource efficient economies in asia and the pacific

ADB-IGES Joint Publication

in 2008

Toward Resource Efficient-Economies in Asia and the Pacific

Results From “Toward Resource Efficient Economies in Asia and the Pacific”

March 2009

Taku OHMURA

3R Project

Team

Leader

Asian

Development

Bank

the report
The Report:
  • Propositions:
    • Current inefficient development patterns do not allow the region to continue support high demand resource without negative impacts:
      • higher price, severe degradation, growing internal competition
    • Government around the region have the ability to follow an alternative path not only to avoid such impacts but also to take advantage of opportunities to invest in infrastructure and institutes wisely:
      • Strengthen competitiveness, generate jobs, provide clean and productive environment
resource inefficiency in asia
Resource Inefficiency in Asia
  • Resource efficiency has huge room to improve in developing countries
    • Energy consumption per GDP of PRC is 3 times higher than US, 10 times than Japan)
    • In many mega-cities, non-revenue water of water supply is around 40%
    • In developing countries, 75% of water intended to for irrigation is lost to evaporation, leakage, seepage of bad management
  • Fresh water is a renewable resources, but world demand for water has tripled over last half century, it increasingly emerging scares commodity due to population pressure, intensive irrigation, erratic weather pattern, and pollution caused by human activities.
needs for resource efficiency improvement in asia 1
Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (1)
  • Asian economies is continuing its growth, even its growth rate is slowing down. Economic expansion is associated with rapid urbanization (2.21 Billon in 2040  1.56 Billion current)
  • Necessary to improve services to the people, to reduce poverty (54% of population living less than $2/day poverty line or 27% for <$1.25/day)
    • more than 600 million people lack access to safe drinking water and nearly 2 billion people have inadequate, or no, sanitation facilities.
  • Resulting in rapidly increasing demand of resources (material, energy and water), and waste generation (solid waste, pollutants, GHG)
    • Asian energy consumption will grow by 112% from 2005 to 2030
    • GO2 emission from Asia will be doubled and represent 36% of world emission in 42% in 2030 in comparison to 29% in 2005
    • Solid waste generation will be doubled in 2050
needs for resource efficiency improvement in asia 2
Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (2)

-- Not only for environmental objectives, but also economic competitiveness and sustainable economic growth --

  • Tackling Local Environmental Problems
  • Mitigating Climate Change
  • Ensuring Energy Security (+water/food security)
  • Preserving Natural Capital
  • Improving Economic Competitiveness
  • Minimizing Disposal Costs
  • Developing New Business Opportunities
  • Pursuing Social Benefits
  • Avoiding Resource Conflicts
government role develop national policy framework
Government role: Develop National Policy Framework
  • Overarching Policies, such as “Circular Economy”
  • National Policies to Support Material, Energy and Water Efficiency
  • Targets, Monitoring, and Benchmarking

Report examines wide range of policy instruments:

Regulatory, Economic and Financial, Information-based, Voluntary Initiatives, Substance, product or technology bans, Extended producer Responsibility and take-back, Green purchasing, Biomass policies and programs, Construction and demolition debris, Energy Audit, Energy Efficiency and Emission Standards, Energy pricing and taxation, Favorable subsidies (tax credit & favorable loan), Energy service company, Demand side management, GHG reduction project, Improving allocative efficiency, River basin planning, Water Pricing, Water market

government role investing in resource efficient infrastructure
Government Role : Investing in Resource-Efficient Infrastructure
  • Infrastructure investments often establish a country’s pattern of resource use for subsequent decades. If traditional low efficiency infrastructure is introduced, the economies and the sustainability of resource use will suffer in the long term.
    • ADB estimates: US$60 Billion/yr is needed to expand urban services – water, sanitation, SWM, road, and mass transit.
    • US$8 Billion/yr over the next decade to meet MDG targets for sanitation and safe drinking water
    • Investment in industry and energy sectors is continuing to meet the increasing demands
      • US$6 trillion needed for energy investments by 2030
conclusion
Conclusion
  • Resource efficiency for reducing energy demand is the key to shift to Low Carbon Society, front- runner to the stationary world
  • Embedding resource efficiency concept into management is indispensable to win international competition among countries and business as well
  • Fully integrated application of resource efficiency concept required: innovations in products as well as in infrastructure and institutions to activate them. Immediate action of Governments based on firm future oriented plan is indispensable
  • Much of the Asia now situates in an advantageous position to leapfrog to resource efficient society, avoiding locked–in with past inefficient developing pattern, if their current rapid and massive investment aims properly to our common future
  • Collaboration first, competition second: collaborative improvement of resource efficiency benefits widely over the countries in Asia, under tightening regional flow of materials and energy, within stationary world
slide36

Can we live with such a catastrophe?

Projection of surface temperature from 1900

地球シミュレータによる2100年までの気候変化予測ー地上温度

CCSR/NIES/FRSGC+Earth Simulator

東大気候システム研究センター・国立環境研究所・地球環境フロンティア研究センター

slide37

Earth System Integrated Mod Kakushin = Innovation Program (2007-12)気候が変化すれば生態系も変化し、炭素循環が変化する。気候と生態系の相互作用も考慮して将来の地球環境変化を予測できるのが地球システム統合モデル(ESM)であり、これの高度化をはかる。

Stratosphere process

Chemical process

Aerozol

Ice sheet

力学的植生モデル

Marine bio-chemical

process

Land area

C cycle

Land energy

water cycle

Ocean circulation

slide38

[PgC/yr]

4

No FB

With FB

Estimate

No FB

*present

With Feed Back

0

1850

2000

2100

2250

To stabilize climate, emission = absorption, but absorption capacity decreases while temperature rises.

Almost

Zero

emission

ultimately

needed

1000ppm stabilize

More than

6 degrees

PgC/y

550ppm stabilize

3.2-4 degrees

Estimate

Slow absorption

to deep see

Interim research findings of "Innovative" Earth System Model

JAMSTEC(2007)

now we are stepping into stationary society

Products: Energy

Infrastructure

Wastes: CO2

Resources: Fossil F

Nowwe are stepping into stationary society

Solar Energy

as source of resources

as sink of residuals

The earth is finite

Moriguchi +SN

slide40

Thank you for your attention!

Can you see and feel the blessings of the mother nature?

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