Where the action is: searching for sustainability transitions in Asia Frans Berkhout

1. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Where the action is: searching for sustainability transitions in Asia Frans Berkhout

2. Propositions • System innovation emerges out of powerful, underlying forces of change • The most powerful economic and social changes (transitions) today are occurring in developing Asia • Globalisation is an important contextual feature in shaping Asian (and European) transitions • Research on sustainability transitions is most fruitfully conducted in developing Asian contexts

3. Theories of development • Endogenous growth theory: key role of knowledge and technological learning leading to rapid improvements in productivity, wealth creation and growth • Key role of institutions in ‘catch-up’ • Modernisation of traditional industries, structural change in the economy (agric-industrial-services) • Urbanisation, demographic change and emergence of consumer markets • Tendency to convergence in productivity, economic structure and growth in the long-run: one or many models?

4. Linking growth and environment Source: Shafik and Bandyopadhyay, 1992

5. Sooner, faster and more simultaneously Source: Marcotoullio et al, 2005)

6. System innovation • Reconfiguration of production/consumption systems • Long-term (decadal) • Co-evolving technological, institutional, behavioural changes • Multi-level models of socio-technical systems (niches, regimes, landscapes) • Emphasis on problem of ‘order’ leading to path dependency in innovation • Options: accelerating the rate of change; reorienting innovation pathways; or creating new innovation paths • Measures: generating variety, creating markets, coordinating selection pressures

7. The scale of Asian development Source: US EIA, 2006

8. Characteristics of Asian development Similarities • Investment in human and physical capital • Egalitarian income distribution • Rapid manufactures export growth • Insulated bureaucracy Dissimilarities (S and E Asia) • Depedence on natural resources • Education and income distributions • Role of the state in economic development

9. Globalisation • Trade: commodities, technology, knowledge • Markets: capital, goods, services • Governance: policy learning, international regimes • Knowledge and technology: public and private R&D, education and development • Migration: labour, culture

10. Indicies of globalisation World Bank, 2002

11. Globalisation and East Asian development • High levels of foreign direct investment – not in all countries • High levels of merchandize goods exports – ‘climbing the ladder’ of technological capabilities • Importance of global production networks as a form of industrial production • Constrained international population migration

12. Linking system innovation and globalisation • Globalisation enables transformative change: focus on developing Asia • Globalisation connects transformations in different regions

13. Globalisation enabling change • What do developing economy contexts offer system innovation? • Pathways of change are less path-determined • Opportunities for niches are abundant • New regimes are being created • Landscapes are in transition • But • Priority is growth • Capacities are weaker: S&T, institutional

14. Globalisation connecting change • How are socio-technical transitions in developed economies influenced by their international context? • Key resources are internationally-traded: world prices • Environmentally-relevant sectors are highly-integrated to global production networks and sometimes dominated by (national or international) MNCs • Policy environment: trade, competition, environment is increasingly global • But • There is a social demand for growth and sustainability • Capacities are stronger

15. Conclusions • The scale and momentum of change: observing transitions • Rapid emergence of new socio-technical systems based on systems of innovation (sectoral, national and global) • Confronting the convergence hypothesis: not one but many pathways • Varieties of development pathway: sustainability experiments • A sequence of socio-technical systems: linking to the EKC • Current policy attention