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IV Annual MICEX & London Stock Exchange Capital Markets Conference

Investment Banking Division. IV Annual MICEX & London Stock Exchange Capital Markets Conference. IPO Pipeline Michael Boardman. 2 nd February 2010. Nomura Equities Franchise Update. Market Drivers. Secondary Markets (1). Primary Markets. 1. a. Global Rally.

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IV Annual MICEX & London Stock Exchange Capital Markets Conference

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  1. Investment Banking Division IV Annual MICEX & London Stock Exchange Capital Markets Conference IPO Pipeline Michael Boardman 2nd February 2010

  2. Nomura Equities Franchise Update Market Drivers Secondary Markets (1) Primary Markets 1 a Global Rally Record 2009 Issuance Levels • In 2009, DJ Stoxx 600 was up +24% • MSCI EM up 72% • ~$366bn of equity issuance in Europe in 2009 vs. ~$260bn in 2008 • ~$262bn of equity issuance in Emerging Markets in 2009 vs. ~$209bn in 2008 2 b Volatility Drop Investors Made Money on New Issuance • Average aftermarket performance of Emerging Markets follow-ons (3i): • Fully Marketed: +25% • ABBs: +29% • VIX peaked in November 2008 at 80% • Currently at 23% 3 c Supporting Equity Backdrop Global IPO Market Buoyant • Limited returns on cash / bonds • High cash balances and increasing fund flows in EM stocks • Attractive valuations • $128bn of IPO issuance primarily from US and Asia (3ii) • Strong aftermarket performance • Credit indices back to pre-September levels • Preference for cyclical stocks, catch up rally for defensives Return of Risk Appetite Investors Reverse Enquiring into IPOs 4 d • Investors looking for: quality growth stories, high liquidity, “tried and tested” names, differentiated sector exposure 5 e Consensus Outlook Bullish European IPO Market Re-Opened • Consumer confidence +30% since February low (2) • Q3 2010 interest rates hike • Europe: Delta Lloyd reopened the market in early November • Approx 150+ European IPOs in the visible pipeline (4) 1 • Source: Bloomberg, Broker reports. • University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence. • Source: Dealogic. (i) Including European follow-ons > €50m. (ii) Includes global IPOs • Expected IPOs based on rumoured and postponed IPOs.

  3. Secondary Markets are Supportive Developments in the Turkish Banking Sector • Russian equities have outperformed developed and Emerging European peers by a significant margin European EM equities have outperformed developed markets Growing allocations into equities % allocated to equities +167% +104% Increased equity investor fund flows into EM countries Liquidity available in the market “After a cracking 2009, Emerging Markets are still the asset class of choice for this year.” Financial Times, 4 Jan 2010 % change investor portfolio country, region allocation Source: Bloomberg, Factset, Nomura

  4. Bumper Year for Issuance in Europe in 2009, Dominated by Rights Issues Section Header (used to create Tab Pages and Table of Contents) • IPO issuance still well below previous levels Issuance by Sector Issuance by Product Issuance by Geography Russia & CIS 3% Equity Issuance in Europe (1) IPOs Issuance in Europe EQL Issuance in Europe FO & RI Issuance in Europe Source: Dealogic Note 1: Excludes Equity Linked Issuances. 3

  5. 2009 Witnessed an Active IPO Market in the US and Asia • European activity was limited Global IPOs in 2009 > $50m (1) European IPOs Since 2009 Greater Than US$50m Monthly IPO Issuance ($bn) IPO Issuance by Region Total raised: $112bn Pricing Relative to Range (#IPOs) Size ($m) Distribution (#IPOs) 4 Source: Dealogic. (1) Global IPOs > $50m.

  6. European High Growth / Technology IPO Market Place Investors are Selective About Opportunities and Conservative About Valuations Markets Remain Selective 2009 European IPO: Breakdown by Region of Operation Key Investor Takeaways European IPO market is open again Dec 2009€1bn IPO Dec 2009£400m IPO • Accounts are very selective Concessions Priced 12% below the bottom of original price range Pulled • Europe is trying to catch up with US and Asian IPO markets • Pricing momentum is important and the range needs to drive it Nov 2009€1bn IPO Nov 2009$500m ABB • Investors looking for high growth, unless it is a large or must own deal Priced at the bottom of the range Pulled • Novelty / scarcity of value: preference for new subsectors with genuine growth • Larger IPOs & more liquid stocks with significant freefloat more attractive • High discount to comparables expected Brics Raised $6.7bn Amid Big Demand for EM Assets “Brazil, Russia, India and China have issued a record amount of equity since the start of the year, as the so-called Bric countries have rushed to take advantage of increased appetite for emerging market assets. The Brics have raised $6.7bn in 26 initial public offerings so far this year, the highest amount ever for the month of January, according to Thomson Reuters. The biggest single offering was the $2.2bn listing of Rusal, the Russian aluminum giant controlled by oligarch Oleg Deripaska...” “At least 140 Bric offerings are in the pipeline for 2010, with a collective value of more $29bn, Thomson Reuters said. This surpasses expected issuances this year of $21.6bn from the US and $15.4bn from western Europe...” “In addition to Rusal, three other Russian conglomerates are considering foreign listings that could take place within the first half of this year. Metalloinvest, Russia's biggest iron ore miner, recently revived plans for a London listing, as did coal producer Suek and media group ProfMedia.” 5 Source: Dealogic, Bloomberg, FT

  7. Busy 2010 in Terms of IPO Issuance Visible Global IPO Pipeline Selective Russian IPOs in the Pipeline Source: Dealogic However, we estimate over 150 European IPOs in the pipeline with over $30bn of issuance 6

  8. Key to a Successful IPO IPO preparation and structuring Flexible but focused bank syndicate structure Appropriate window of issuance Cornerstone investors Appropriate valuation metrics Strong and appealing equity story Widest distribution and deepest pool of money 7

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