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Is the Gautrain the solution ? Romano Del Mistro. TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005. To promote economic growth, job creation and SMMEs To relieve congestion To demonstrate government’s commitment to public transport. To restructure the apartheid city

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Is the Gautrain the solution?

Romano Del Mistro

TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005


Six objectives

To promote economic growth, job creation and SMMEs

To relieve congestion

To demonstrate government’s commitment to public transport

To restructure the apartheid city

To give expression to an integrated transport plan

To improve environmental conditions

Six objectives


Public debate
Public debate…

  • Good public participation programme, became focussed on NIMBY

  • Alternative modes were not debated sufficiently

  • The best alternative needs to be shown to be the best


Inadequate debate leads to
Inadequate debate leads to …

  • Incorrect public perception of professional competence

    • Loss of public credibility in and support for future initiatives aimed at sustainable transport

  • Waste of resources


Contents

Looking for an alternative

Some details

A question of scale

Contents


Public transport alternatives
Public transport alternatives

  • Not limited to current experience


This is also a bus service

ITDP, June2005; Seoul

This is also a bus service

  • Seoul

  • Forty kilometres of dedicated median lanes on major trunk lines


This is also a bus service1

Jakarta

6,000 pass/h per direction.

Articulated buses can boost capacity to 9,600

This is also a bus service

ITDP, January2005; Jakartal


This is also a bus service2

Mexico City

250 000 daily passengers

This is also a bus service


This is also a bus service3
This is also a bus service

  • Bogota

  • By 2015, TransMilenio:

  • 5 million pass / day

  • 388 km of busways

  • 37 km of trunk lines

  • 57 stations

  • 28 pedestrian overpasses

  • 4 terminals of integration

  • Control centre

  • Total cost

    US$ 198.8 million



This is also a bus service5
This is also a bus service

  • Eindhoven

    • Phileas


Choosing an alternative

Capacity

Cost per passenger

Capital cost

Speed

Appropriate technology

Safety

Comfort

Convenience

Image

National Pride

To attract car user

To promote public transport

Choosing an alternative


Choosing capacity pk hr direction

Maximum link volume

7400 (2000)

13800 (2016)

Ex Brocklebank et al (2001)

Estimated at:

5000 (2005)

5400 (2010)

Ex Corporate.gautrain.co.za

Minibuses

5400 / 15 seats =

367 trips

Buses

5400 / 50 seats=

110 trips

Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction)


Choosing capacity pk hr direction1

Lloyd Wright, 2003

I will come back to passenger estimate

Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction)


Choosing cost passenger
Choosing …. Cost/passenger

Subsidy = Cost - fare

Additional subsidy=

(R51-R36) *5400/.11*250 = R184 million /year (R331m?)


Choosing capital cost

Used this value; not R7, R8-, R12-, R20-, or R24- billion)

Choosing…. Capital cost

HIGHER RISK WHEN INVESTING IN RAIL


Choosing speed

High speed rail

62 km

35 minutes, plus

10 minutes to station

5 minutes wait

10 minutes to work

= 60 minutes

Slower mode:

62 km

44 minutes, plus

10 minutes to station

5 minutes wait

10 minutes to work

= 69 minutes

IS IT WORTH IT?

Choosing…. Speed


Some details estimating the trips

Peak hour passengers/ direction

(1+1+1+1)*800 +(3+2)*2200 = 14200 cars

1,3 pass/vehicle and 20% to Gautrain = 3692 pass/hr

High values require more explanation of modelling

?

2

1

3

1

1

1

Some details… Estimating the trips


Some details capital paid

“Generally the capital costs are paid by government, therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

A political decision to pay for some of the capital costs.

But we (passengers or citizens) pay for all the costs; either as fares or as taxes.

Some details…. Capital paid


A question of scale

To ensure ridership therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

Densify corridor wrt housing and employment?

Delay new freeway construction?

Buses can carry over 20 000 peak hour pass/direction

Creates a precedent for longer travel distances.

Average = 20 km Website

Average = 35 km

Brocklebank et al (2001 )

A question of scale


A question of scale1
A question of scale therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

  • What if only 2200 peak hour pass/direction?

    • (114-56) *2200 /.11*250

      = R290 million/year (or R430million/year)

    • R 321 million/year subsidy for 16000 peak hour bus passengers / direction in Greater Johannesburg.

  • What percentage risk in a Public Private Partnership is fair to government?

    • R18b / R20b?; R10b/ R20b?; R5b/R20b?


A question of equity

. therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

R12 billion plus on the relatively more affluent.

What is being spent on the deteriorating rail network?

A question of equity


A question of objectives

Shanghai MagLev therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

A question of objectives

  • Define objectives

    • National pride

    • Reviving inner city property values

    • Greater development plans?

    • Region must have its train!

    • Degree of mobility


A question of open debate
A question of open debate therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

  • Test modelling assumptions in open debate

    • Alternatively, ask the private sector what it will ask for it to take 100% of the risk.


A question of alternatives

Test transport alternatives therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

Rail high speed

Integrated Rail SA

At-grade bus

Can always be upgraded

Mixed grade bus

Even revisit corridor development goals

A question of alternatives


Conclusion

Public transport services that are therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

Safe, convenient, reliable, accessible and affordable

Must consider all alternatives to implement the best solution

Gauteng to follow up Car Free Day with indabaSaturday October 22, 2005 09:16 - (SA)

Gauteng transport MEC Ignatius Jacobs will follow up Car Free Day with a commuter indaba as a step to champion commuter rights, his office announces ………………

Conclusion


Thank you therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

OR

O


Thank you therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

OR

O


Total cost passenger r trip
Total cost/passenger (R/trip) therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”


Operating cost passenger r trip
Operating Cost/passenger (R/trip) therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”


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